How real is the threat to Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina's life?
Recently, a popular English TV news channel reported that Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has survived an assassination attempt in Dhaka amid suspicions that it was the work of insiders, including her own security personnel. The report was based on a story filed by a prominent journalist believed to be an authority on Bangladesh.
However, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) was quick to deny the news, clarifying that the report was fabricated and there was no truth in the story.
The denial notwithstanding, the veteran journalist and the noted Bangladesh watcher, however, maintained that there was truth in the news of the assassination attempt and stood by his story. While one can't arrive at conclusions, this "development" calls for a quick scrutiny as Hasina's life is not only precious to India's geopolitical and security interests, but equally to the stability of Bangladesh.
Hasina today is pursued by jihadis and anti-liberation and fundamentalist forces as targeting her would mean a field day for the Islamic radicals whose very existence stands imperilled by Hasina's uncompromising stand against war criminals, terrorist and fundamentalist outfits, including Jumatul Mujahdeen (JMB), Hefazat e Islam and their affiliates. So, a whole bunch of enemies has sprung up continuously, trying to assert its presence by launching terror attacks as notoriously seen on July 1, 2016 at the Holy Artesan bakery and followed by sporadic suicide attacks in different parts of the country.
The influx of Rohingyas has added to the security threat to Hasina. Recent reports said their number stood at 4,51,000 and it is incremental. Hasina is wisely addressing the refugee problem with a humanitarian approach, perhaps to be on board with the international community. Yet, a large number of Rohingyas have been or are being radicalised. There are credible reports that Pakistan ISI, with its fixed agenda to destabilise Hasina, is persistently trying to use the terror outfit Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) to train a segment of Rohingyas for massive indoctrination and eventually harm the prime minister.
ISI activities are well-known on the soil of Dhaka. The Pakistani High Commission has been very proactive — in the last couple of years, Islamabad saw the expulsion of many Pakistani diplomats and staffers from Dhaka on account of incompatible conduct. There were also reports that one undercover Pakistani High Commision had openly provided money to JMB for terrorist activities. Material support in terms of Fake Indian Foreign Currency (FICN) was also given to operatives to carry out destructive activities in India.
These nefarious designs are part of the bigger plot to harm Hasina. Getting rid of her would help rightist, reactionary and fundamentalist forces usurp power and, once she is gone, there will be no leader in sight who can hold the reins and control the country. Not even her son or daughter.
Even if it is assumed that the reported assassination attempt is false, Hasina can't afford to take chances with her life and her country. Former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and many members of his family were slain on August 15, 1975 by the military. Informed sources confirm that there were specific intelligence inputs to the effect that Mujib's life was in danger and a conspiracy was being hatched to kill him. This information was shared by Indian external agency R&AW directly with Mujib, but went unheeded. Even a chopper from the Indian side was on stand by to aid Mujib, but nothing helped in the end, probably because early warnings were not taken seriously and Bangladesh paid dearly.
The Hasina assassination attempt news in question also speaks about the theory that her personal security personnel have been allegedly won over exactly as witnessed in the Indira Gandhi assassination case. We are yet to get an authentic report, but there is no harm in taking precautions.
Intelligence must be hard, well-corroborated and since it has implications for India, it needs to be addressed with all the seriousness it deserves. August 15 can't be repeated nor can October 31, 1984, when Indira Gandhi was slain. Caution holds well for both the friendly countries.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that outfits like Aqua Mul Mujahdeen (AMM) have surfaced with the active collaboration of Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) under the stewardship of one Hafiz Tohar, and the group is suspected to be working hand in glove with the ISI-backed LeT trying to cause trouble in Bangladesh. Any attempt to harm Hasina cannot be ruled out in the present, turbulent scenario when a section of the Rohingyas has gone berserk and multiple forces are at work to rattle the stable government.
Therefore, the Rohingya factor must not be ignored at any cost.
Waiting in the wings, with the support of Pakistan, is Hasina's Opposition leader Begum Khaleda Zia, whose son Tareq Rahman — sheltered in London — remains in touch with the Pakistan military and ISI and it's very likely that all the inimical forces may join hands to embark on a misadventure.
The immediate solution to the problem is to launch a vigorous joint intelligence drive with India thrown in. A senior intelligence officer from India can be positioned in Dhaka for some time for stock-taking.
Sources say that the last audit of Hasina's personal security was undertaken by Indian experts in 2010. It's high time a fresh review in the light of recent happenings takes place.