Why BJP will win Gujarat elections hands down
The forthcoming Assembly elections in Gujarat have generated unprecedented levels of interest both in political and public engagements. The reason for this has been the media-fuelled "prestige issue" for the BJP and an opportunity for the Congress’s political revival.
However, the closer we get to the elections, the more inevitable a massive win for the BJP seems. A closer look at the data on voting intentions of the people of Gujarat suggests that any hopes for the Congress may come to naught.
Three major trends seem to consistently emerge from different pre-election surveys conducted by various agencies. The first and possibly the most important factor is the unabated popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Despite the narrative which the Congress has tried to build around GST and demonetisation, PM Modi continues to enjoy broad support across the state, starting from the Pew Survey earlier in the year which put his favourable rating at 88 per cent.
Second is the lack of credibility that the Congress faces on developmental issues, a perception which would be further exacerbated by the chaos surrounding the negotiations with PAAS and ticket distribution. Any momentum which the media coverage had initially created for the Congress seems to have dissipated.
Third is the limited influence that Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani would have on the final outcome of the elections. The opinion of previously undecided voters within the respective communities of these young leaders is crystallising, mostly against these leaders. Alpesh Thakor’s overt association with the Congress has dented his support base. While in Hardik Patel’s case, the perception regarding the core issue of reservation taking backstage and the release of the alleged sex tapes has accelerated the already declining graph of his popularity. With the Patidar community split vertically over the elections mostly in favour of the BJP, Hardik Patel would be a limited factor even in seats with heavy Patidar influence.
The region-wise voting scenario also appears to be in favour of the BJP. Various surveys indicate that the BJP enjoys a decent lead in South Gujarat. In 2012, the BJP had won all 12 seats in Surat and 28 of the total 35 seats in South Gujarat.
Even in central Gujarat, the BJP is expected to have a double digit lead over the Congress which makes this region favourable for the BJP in most of its 40 seats. The BJP has also traditionally performed well in the six seats of Kutch district. With PAAS’s political influence waning, the BJP can expect to reverse the reduction in Patel support in the regions of Saurashtra and north Gujarat and retain much of the vote share it bagged in 2012. The absence of Keshubhai Patel’s GPP cutting into the BJP vote share in Saurashtra could bring additional seats to the party as compared to 2012.
Also, with 69 constituencies throughout the state with an urban population of more than 50 per cent, and over 43 per cent of the state's population residing in urban areas, BJP can hope to cash in on its popularity among urban voters to come back to power.
While the Congress has tried to build a rainbow coalition based on caste, various polls suggest that the BJP has cracked the caste equation too. The 16 per cent upper caste votes have continued to back BJP. A plurality of Patidars also seem to be behind the BJP despite Hardik Patel with more coming back to the BJP fold because of him.
Among the OBCs too, the BJP has a decent lead over the Congress including among the Kshatriyas. The election of Ramnath Kovind as the president of India has further consolidated the Koli vote for the BJP.
In addition to this, BJP’s inroads in 2012 among the Adivasi and even Muslims, who were traditionally Congress voters, seem to have expanded further. In terms of gender split, female voters, especially from middle and low income groups and Patidar households, have expressed a clear preference for the BJP. This broad demographic support, which is generally consistent in most of the pre-election surveys, makes a BJP win a foregone conclusion.
The BJP has also carefully calibrated its candidate list with a mix of incumbent candidates and fresh faces, which would swing quite a few votes. And with the campaign gaining momentum over the next few days, many undecided voters who do not want to waste their votes would also choose to vote for the BJP. Given these facts, the BJP seems to be well on its way for a sixth consecutive victory with massive margins in Gujarat.
With both wind and tide seemingly in the BJP’s favour, 150-plus seats may not be too distant.