Gujarat Assembly 2017 elections: How long will BJP rely on Modi to win?
Battleground Gujarat proved to be the Battle of Metz in World War II for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the BJP under "General" Narendra Modi has reconquered its bastion for the sixth time — like the US under Lieutenant General George S Patton captured the French fortress city — a resurgent Congress under its young "Lieutenant" Rahul Gandhi put up a massive resistance like the Germans did under General Otto von Knobelsdorff in 1944.
General Modi once again played the sheet anchor on which the BJP held on when it looked that a marauding Congress, led by a gallant and belligerent Rahul, was looking to torpedo the saffron ship. With enough ammo like Gabbar Singh Tax, demonetisation "demon" and challenging Modi’s "Gujarat’s model of development" in his blazing guns, the once-derided "Pappu" packed a punch that seemed to have the potential to knock out the BJP had Southpaw Modi not stepped into the ring.
Redux the North African war theatre in 1942 and '43. With its morale debilitated by the Germans in the battles of Sidi Bou Zid and Kasserine Pass, the US Corps II desperately needed an Alexander-like general who could lift their sagging spirits, form a strategy in a jiffy and counter attack the enemy. After Patton assumed command, the US Corps II bounced back winning the Tunisian campaign.
Even while Rahul was busy cobbling up alliances with the three Young Turks-Patidar big gun Hardik Patel, Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and Thakor stalwart Alpesh Thakor-the BJP seemed rudderless. There was consternation in the BJP camp, especially the fear of alienating Surat traders, after Rahul started spewing "Sholay" using the Gabbar Singh Tax. The Modi government immediately scurried to overhaul GST by shifting 178 items of daily use from the top tax bracket of 28 per cent to 18 per cent. Besides, a uniform 5 per cent tax was prescribed for restaurants.
Patton once remarked, “A pint of sweat will save a gallon of blood.” General Modi certainly led the BJP onslaught in the final round, saved gallons of blood but with an equally dehydrating experience of sweating as the Last Man Standing. But for how long will Modi play Patton? Modi made several sorties to his home state even appealing to the electorate in exclusive Gujarati, not Hindi. When Rahul mocked his model of development, Modi thundered, “I am development, I am Gujarat.”
When chief minister Vijay Rupani was expected to lead the BJP brigade to the battlefront, it was Modi, aided by his lieutenant general Amit Shah, who finally flanked the party finally and bolstered the chances of romping home. The moment loose cannon Mani Shankar Aiyar went trigger-free with his “neech aadmi” volley, Modi pounced upon the chance to turn the course of the battle in the BJP’s favour by trying to cause a storm in a teacup by referring to his chaiwala background.
Spinning his magic wheel further, the prime minister alleged a "Pakistangate" on the lines of Russiagate saying Islamabad tried to influence the elections in his home state. Aiyar had dined with some Pakistani officials and former PM Manmohan Singh at his residence a day before making the “neech aadmi” comment, Modi alleged.
The inability of the BJP to run the relay without Modi clearly reflects in the tally with party not even close to Shah’s 150+ ambitious mark. Unless the party gives the baton to Modi in the final lap, it starts gasping for breath. When initial trends showed that the BJP and the Congress were in dead heat, the markets tanked more than two per cent, the worst plunge in a year.
With elections slated in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Rajasthan, the BJP needs to revamp its strategy without saviour Modi always coming to the rescue. Every BJP-ruled state must have a battle-hardened General that flanks the party when the Congress fires a volley of bullets before the ballot.
In case of a national emergency like war when Modi can’t land during the hustings to rally the party, the BJP needs to promote and depend on other Generals to assume command during a Gujarat-like crisis.
“Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do and they will surprise you with their ingenuity”, Patton once said—that should be Modi’s message to the BJP.