General election vs state elections: Why voters’ verdict for Narendra Modi and the BJP won’t be same
Things look bright for the BJP in the parliamentary elections.
The season of elections has descended on us. The political discourse has become shriller and louder. We are witnessing accusations and counter-accusations every day and the debates are unfortunately hitting a low level and sometimes becoming abusive. The stakes are high. We have state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telengana and Mizoram in November-December followed by the parliamentary elections in April.
What does it look like?
It is always dangerous thing to guess poll results. But let me try.
I think the state elections and the central election present contrasting pictures. I foresee a tough fight for the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh with the Congress, breathing down its neck.
It looks like an easy victory for the TRS in Telangana and a confused scenario in Mizoram.
But at the Centre, I predict a victory for the ruling BJP, the margin of which will depend on Opposition unity.
This contrasting picture owes to PM Narendra Modi’s image among people.
People view him as a sincere, honest and a hard-working politician who is trying to improve the administration. People are willing to give him a second chance. Many of his supporters concede that not much improvement has taken place in the last four years and that much more could have been done.
But they are willing to wait, since he has the image of sincerity and determination.
Manmohan Singh had a similar image in 2009. I remember opposition leaders attacking him on various issues, including the Indo-US nuclear deal, but people felt that he was a good man, who deserved a second chance.
Today’s picture is somewhat similar.
The opposition has attacked the PM on demonetisation. Many of his supporters accept that it was a failure. But in the same breath, they declare that at least he tried to address the problem of black money and hence deserves support.
The latest is the Rafale deal, which the government signed in 2016. Here again, it appears to be an issue handled clumsily by the government.
Shekhar Gupta in The Print calls it more of stupidity rather than a scam. Let us see how it plays out. I have my doubts whether it will seriously affect the image of the government.
So, according to me, the BJP is in an advantageous position at the Centre. A tie-up between SP and BSP will make the fight much tougher for the BJP in UP. Similarly, tie ups in Karnataka, Jharkhand and Bengal will help the Opposition.
Now, let us look at the state elections.
This is going to be completely different. I foresee a tough fight between the Congress and the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — Rajasthan, as it seems, heavily leaning towards the Congress. I was in Mount Abu recently and was speaking with a couple of people there. There is a complete split between the state government and the central government in the minds of the people. The BJP government in the Centre has a positive image, while the image of the state government is tarnished. Besides, Ashok Gehlot is a popular figure even today.
Madhya Pradesh has had a popular chief minister for the last fifteen years, but from reports that are emerging, there is a lot of anti-incumbency factor. Chhattisgarh has always been a tough fight between the Congress and BJP and it is difficult to predict the outcome.
It looks like an easy victory for the TRS in Telengana as the Congress is too weak to mount any challenge. I am not too familiar with the politics of Mizoram, but I think Congress will find it difficult to retain power this time.
Unlike 2013 and 2014, PM Modi will find it difficult to sway the state elections.
People are judging the performance of the state governments — not of PM Modi. Karnataka elections in May was a pointer.
With the BJP fighting with the PM campaigning hard against the Congress government, it was expected that BJP will coast to an easy victory. But the party managed 104 seats lesser than what they had got in 2008, when Rajnath Singh was the party president.
Clearly, the best chances for the opposition are in these state elections. It is here that they can give a fight.
Things look bright for the BJP in the parliamentary elections. The personal popularity of the Prime Minister is very high and he will carry the party through. The Congress needs to introspect whether Rahul Gandhi as their prime ministerial candidate is the right choice. He is, as yet, not taken seriously by the people. The Congress has a large number of capable state leaders like Ashok Gehlot, Amarinder Singh and Siddharamaiah to name just a few. They can be made leaders at the national level too. But for that, the Congress has to cease being a family firm.