Rise of women suicide bombers in Bangladesh should worry India

"Neo JMB", according to Bangladesh security agencies, is the name for the "offshoot" faction of Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) that has been inspired by the ideologies of Daesh.

The phrase had to be coined almost under duress, by the Bangladeshi law enforcers, as unfolding events showcased that both radicalisation and attacks were being Daesh motivated:

Dhaka had attempted its utmost to stave off a Daesh hand in the machete-murders by stating that the perpetrators were "home-grown" Islamists that were either sponsored by Pakistan's ISI or Bangladesh's political opposition that was desperate to oust Sheikh Hasina's dispensation.

However, pretence failed - an attempt that had been foisted in order to thwart the entry of extra-regional power(s) which was seeking to enter the erstwhile East Pakistan for reasons besides Daesh (a creation of new counter "string of pearls" for instance!) - and Sheikh Hasina's security mangers were forced to renege on their early 2016 assertion that there was no Daesh presence in their country.

The author was a member of a "Track II Dialogue" to Dhaka on March 26-27 2016 and had confronted top DGFI-NSI officials about the reason for the denial. Protracted discussion and "come-on-face-up to-facts" met with a reluctant admission that an admission of robust Daesh presence (or affiliations of groups such as JMB and Ansarullah Bangla Team to Daesh and al-Qaeda would have grave political repercussions!).

The dilemma that led Sheikh Hasina to refute Daesh presence - even if it were by way of "far-radicalisation" - is understandable, but sooner or later her fair dispensation had to pave way to reality.

"Neo-JMB" (a face-save coinage at best) and the manner in which it has begun manifesting itself in Bangladesh rouses concern.

Suicide bombing is being resolutely introduced in a land that has never been heir to it. This author has spent the last two days attempting to unearth the reasons for the phenomenon. The factor has become even more worrisome since women with infants on their laps are pioneering such acts.

The fact that two aspects of import are being granted by senior Bangladeshi intelligence officials are central. The first pertains to Daesh's presence (even were it to be in virtual reality!) and to redraw a denunciation by resorting to another name (in this case, Neo-JMB) and the second that a suicide bombing has come to Bangladesh, motivated by "male counter-parts". The possibility of a renegade LTTE component (now in disarray!) in Bangladesh seems completely out-of-place (despite the fact that a senior National Security Intelligence wants to endorse it!) and it is the likelihood of Daesh radicalisation with online technical "explosive" know-how is more in line.

After all where did a suburban Bangladeshi housewife - despite the fact that she happened to be the spouse of an Islamist cadre suddenly conjure up with a lethal vest to blow herself up along with her infant and by standing law enforcers. Clearly there is a method in the methodical: an orderly that the government agencies have overlooked.

There has been continual sneer from the premier intelligence agencies of India for this author's analyses, and what the manner in which he been has criticising the vision via coloured spectacle through which the terror actor and exploits are being observed and analysed.

The author has always maintained that there is only one cohesive JMB in the erstwhile Pakistan and that it swore its allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's "caliphate" almost immediately after Daesh proclaimed its worldwide claim of presence, and as a corollary domination.

Indeed, Daesh's presence was - notwithstanding the fact that it is losing territory that it had once decisively held in the Middle East - being felt in Orlando, Nice, Pakistan, Germany and in Bangladesh.

It is a matter of time before this alien threat is imported into India, especially into places such as Assam and West Bengal which strategically abut Bangladesh and provinces that have already felt the hand of the JMB.

It would be less than prudent were security managers in India to continue to countenance that a) JMB or Ansarullah Bangla Team, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami or even Indian Mujahideen are a divided house (they bow before the same Sallar-e-Allah!) b) Daesh is - reeling from territorial defeats in the Middle East - now cleverly reaching out to the "far enemy" in order to divert attention (baying to "lone wolf attacks") and most of all c) that there aren't radicalised women inside India who would not be similarly motivated as their Bangladeshi counterparts to carry out shahadat.

There are quite a few asides in the Land of the Mahatma at this time - include fiscal uncertainty - that could act as divergence.

And there's plenty that we need to worry about:

1. Although suicide bombings - particularly by members of the LTTE's "Black Tigers" - are not a new phenomenon in South Asia, is the present manifestation that is suddenly being witnessed in the erstwhile East Pakistan a localised action? In other words, is this a mere a copy cat effect of what was once a devastating manner of violent expression in the region, especially in Sri Lanka and India?

2. Are there Middle Eastern trainers/motivators at work here? In other words, have Daesh and al Qaeda been able to reach out to the womenfolk of South Asia in order to motivate them to kill themselves and others (as also their own infants, which is dangerous).

The setback that Daesh is facing in Iraq and Syria presently will now witness them targeting the far enemy to offset their setbacks in Aleppo and Ar-Raqqah.Unfortunately for South Asia (and because of the not so robust security that countenances the West!) attacks are going to occur more in this region. The fact that there is sizeable Muslim population in this region, and that only a short-sighted counter radicalisation programme is on (primarily in India) will aid the new Islamist programme, which incidentally has only just begun.

3. Although there were adequate clues that a woman suicide squad was being readied in Bangladesh (this author has written and warned about such an occurrence on various occasions!) state apparatus in India and Bangladesh simply ignored the possibility.

4. It must now be found out whether the number of squad has reached double digit figures (the author calculations say 24). The fact that mothers are coming out bomb-breasted with infants in their laps to blast themselves to pieces is not a Up-South Asian phenomenon. It has never been witnessed in any of the insurgencies in the Northeast.

Even LTTE's "Black Tigers" could not motivate terrorist groups in the region to ape their successful assassination of Rajiv Gandhi despite the fact that senior Tamil Tigers visited ULFA camps in Bhutan before the Assamese insurgent camps were demolished in December 2003 by the Royal Bhutan Army.

5. Although there could be outsourced LTTE renegade explosive experts, the motivation, training and command and control is coming from Middle East, that is from Daesh. This cannot be from social media and has to be from word of mouth. In other words, there are Daesh trainers who have spread out worldwide.

6. The accent of the moment is to find out as to how many women (with infants: this is an important psychological component that would resonate across the world!) have been radicalised in Bangladesh and where they are being trained?

7. Who are the targets? Are they symbolic or specific such as high-value ones? What are the occasions? Is it going to be January 26, 2017, Bangladesh Independence Day or more dangerously random and sporadic, which cannot be patterned by any figment of imagination?

8. How many have infiltrated into India? How many inside India are equally motivated and to what extent? As has been said before the motivation need not be religious! I hope this aspect has been clearly understood by the law-enforcer!

9. Where are they hiding? Who are the minders?

10. Are they already in position, awaiting activation, or perhaps prior instructions? To launch their attacks in places of transport, hospitals, religious worship (most important), VVIP events, schools, religious events such as New Year celebrations (night clubs, discotheques et al) or Magh or Bhogali Bihu in Assam?