Why was Navjot Singh Sidhu sidelined by Congress right before Punjab polls?

On Sunday, February 6, 2022, the Punjab Congress presented an all-new picture for everyone to see. Rahul Gandhi, Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee (PPCC) President Navjot Singh Sidhu, Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi and former PPCC Chief Balram Jakhar, in a show of consolidated strength, made party’s objective clear: CM Channi was the party's choice as the CM face, over Sidhu, for the Punjab Assembly Elections 2022.

The party had decided to bet on CM Channi’s leadership over Sidhu’s oratory and popularity. The announcement was made during a virtual rally at the Harsheela Resorts in Ludhiana on Sunday. The decision was taken after a two-hour meeting at the Hyatt hotel, where Channi is said to have shown his report card of work in the past four months while Sidhu pointed his own grievances at the government.

Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi is also said to have counted in the soaring popularity of AAP while making the decision. 

With a heavy heart, Sidhu accepted his fate.

The PPCC Chief and the Legislator from Amritsar East sang praises for Rahul Gandhi and shook hands with CM Channi. Sidhu, who took the stage in an emotional speech, called for working for the Congress tirelessly. He got a hug from Channi, who even touched his feet. A few weeks ago, the two displayed their differences publicly on the stage, with Rahul Gandhi being a witness to it all. Now, the two seem to have to bury their differences ahead of elections.

So, what must have taken Rahul Gandhi, Sunil Jakhar and CM Channi to convince and coax an agitated Sidhu?

Here are the answers:

SIDHU: NOT THE VOTERS' CHOICE

It might have been difficult for Rahul Gandhi to pick a person for the CM post, but the ground voter was quite clear about their choice. It was Charanjit Singh Channi; a Dalit Sikh whose community makes up 32.5 per cent of the population of the state. For a ground voter of Congress, who has been voting for the party in the last 4 elections, Channi was the man.

Navjot Singh Sidhu might have lobbied for himself but he would have found it difficult to fetch votes. Choosing him would have decimated the party's prospects in the Assembly Elections 2022 because of two reasons. First, he doesn’t have a core vote bank like Channi; second, he didn’t even have his own MLAs' support.

The Congress leaders who had initially supported Sidhu, switched their loyalties to Channi at the last hour. The ground report which the party got was that the average Dalit voter would not at all vote for congress if Channi was not its CM face. Sidhu, in fact, was never in the picture in the eyes of voters. The decision by the Congress high command on Sunday was only waiting to be announced.

By announcing his name, overriding that of Sidhu, the party also did what was in the reckoning for the last one year. Political parties like BJP-Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) had promised the people of Punjab a Dalit CM and Deputy CM in April 2021, if elected to power. By installing Channi five months later, Congress did the expected.

TOUGH TO HANDLE

There is no second opinion on the fact that Navjot Singh Sidhu is difficult to handle. Even his days in SAD-BJP were marred with controversies in a number of situations where he rubbed shoulders with party leaders.

For example, in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, late Rajya Sabha MP Arun Jaitley contested from the Amritsar seat in Punjab. Sidhu, who wanted the seat from the BJP, was asked to campaign for Jaitley. He nodded but didn’t come out seeking votes for the senior leader. The result was that Congress’s Capt Amarinder Singh defeated Jaitley by a margin of around 1,02,000 votes.

Sidhu forgot that when his 1988 road rage case was brought up again in 2006 and he was convicted and sentenced to three years of jail, causing him to resign from his MP post, it was Arun Jaitley who represented him in the Supreme Court a year later. Sidhu was released on bail along with his friend. 

Also, one cannot forget Sidhu's countless tiffs with former Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh and Deputy CM Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa. His differences with Randhawa run till date.

Even senior congress party leaders concede that it was always difficult to deal with Sidhu. They say that the leader was always about 'I' and not us. Senior party leaders talking to Indian Express said had that he had minimal support in the party for his CM post. He was virtually alone in his quest to become the CM candidate, which was impossible for the party to bet on.

CASTE ARITHMETIC WAS AGAINST SIDHU

The caste equation in Punjab was against Sidhu's candidature. Sidhu is a Jat Sikh, whose community makes up around 25% in the state. However, the Jat Sikh vote is divided among the SAD, Amarinder’s Punjab Lok Congress and AAP. Contrast to that, Channi’s Dalit Sikh community makes up around 32.5% in the state; largest in the country. The kind of backing which Channi had was never with Sidhu. Choosing Sidhu over Channi would have amounted to a political suicide for teh Congress. Even the MLAs of Congress made their decision of choosing Channi over Sidhu clear, because of his strong caste base.

CHANNI'S VOTE BANK

Loknidi CSDS survey suggests that Congress party has benefited immensely form the Hindu and Sikh vote in the last four assembly elections since 2012. Data says that around 58% Hindu Dalits voted for the Congress in 2019, up from 37% in the 2012 Assembly polls. However, party’s Sikh Dalit vote fell from 51% in 2012 to 35% in 2019.

Congress thereby reposing its faith in the Dalit CM candidate is politically the right decision. Channi, who projected himself as a gareeb ghar ka aadmi, is banking heavily on the SC community vote, which might be the ladder for his success. This is also one of the reasons why the incumbent CM wrote a letter to Election Commission to push the election date from February 14 to February 20 because a large number of devotees, especially from the SC community, travel to Varanasi for the Ravidas Jayanti.

WHAT NEXT FOR SIDHU?

According to what party sources told the Times of India, Sidhu has been promised a key post if the Congress comes to power in Punjab. CM Channi said, “Sidhu ji, jo tussi karna chahte ho, tussi karoge (whatever you want to do, you will do)."

Channi touching the feet of Sidhu on the stage was a message sent right across the party cadre that all was well, and that the party is going into the elections with Channi leading and the Sidhu army marching behind him.