Covid fourth wave to hit India this June? What we know so far
Are you also gearing up for a Covid-free world these days? Yes, we all are in the same dreamland. With a drop in cases and zero Covid restrictions in most states in India, Covid is about to get the ‘thing of a past’ title.
There were many studies earlier that said Covid-19 may end soon and become endemic.
But as soon as a ray of hope shines through, a new shock seems to be knocking on the door.
A recent study has predicted the onset of the fourth Covid wave in India this June.
THE FOURTH WAVE
An IIT Kanpur study has revealed that the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic may start around June 22 this year.
THE PEAK: The IIT study has also predicted the peak of this wave. As per the study, the fourth wave may peak between mid to late August.
REMINDER: This is not just any other study on Covid-19. Before Omicron peak, an IIT study predicted the Omicron graph including peak time, daily case load and much more. The data shared by them was quite accurate. And again, we have another IIT study with predictions on the fourth wave.
The study led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Department of Mathematics and Statistics has also mentioned that there are many other factors that will affect this wave. These factors include:
- the variant driving the wave,
- and vaccination status across the country.
“The data indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022,” the authors mentioned.
The booster dose will also play a significant role during the fourth wave.
So, as soon as India started going back to normal, a new wave is also preparing to meet us in person. Will this cycle ever end? Or are we supposed to give premanent space to Covid in our lives? As everyone is looking for these asnwers, let's first know what the new variant may look like.
WHAT ABOUT WHO?
The World Health Organization has also triggered a sense of fear. It has mentioned that Omicron may not be the last Covid variant.
Plus, WHO has also mentioned that the next strain could be more contagious.
"The next variant of concern will be more fit, and what we mean by that is it will be more transmissible because it will have to overtake what is currently circulating," said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's Covid-19 technical lead.
THE NEXT VARIANT
As compared to the Delta variant, Omicron did not lead to any severe complications.
Unlike the Omicron variant, the subvariant BA.2 is believed to be more contagious.
“The rapid surge in the prevalence of BA.2 in multiple countries suggests that this variant is more contagious than BA.1. One study estimates that BA.2 is up to 33% more transmissible than BA.1 and considers that its spread could be a serious issue for global health in the near future,” Medical News Today mentioned in a report.
The report further explains that the new variant can affect immunty in vaccinated indivuduals and may reduce the effect of the vaccine.
Dr Frederik Plesner Lyngse, a researcher at Copenhagen University told Medical News Today, “[BA.2] possesses immune-evasive properties that reduce the protective effect of vaccination against infection, but [does] not increase its infectiousness from vaccinated persons with breakthrough infections.”
WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF THE SUB-VARIANT?
Several studies from the UK have highlighted that the sub-variant affects the gut health of infected individuals.
The Delta variant affected the upper respiratory tract; majorly lung health. On the other hand, an Omicron infection resulted in mild, common cold-related symptoms.
The virus can travel to different body parts. As reported so far, many patients infected with Omicron sub-variant have experienced gut-related symptoms including nausea, diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal pain, heartburn and bloating.
WHAT IS INDIA'S CURRENT SITUATION?
In India, daily Covid-19 cases are less than 10,000 now.
The country has reported 7,554 fresh Covid cases over the past 24 hours. There are currently 85,680 Covid positive patients in the country.
Many states have lifted all Covid curbs given that the Omicron wave has significantly dropped.
#Unite2FightCorona#LargestVaccineDrive#OmicronVariant ????? ?????https://t.co/Kyqmrq8kdF pic.twitter.com/KAREf8fiYA
— Ministry of Health (@MoHFW_INDIA) March 2, 2022
With this update on the fourth wave, the big question is: Is India ready to fight once again?