https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-bjp-congress-secularism-muslims-aiudf-lok-sabha-2019-29179

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;Assam is the largest among the northeastern states and accounts for 14 Lok Sabha seats. Last time, the BJP won seven and Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) had to be satisfied with three seats each.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;However, the ongoing resentment over the Citizenship Amendment Bill (2016) is posing a challenge to the BJP's target of winning&amp;nbsp;more than 12 seats.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;Various bodies and organisations like the powerful All Assam Students' Union (AASU) have been agitating against the BJP and the proposed Bill. Recently, BJP's ally, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/asom-gana-parishad-bjp-assam-citizenship-bill-1425429-2019-01-07' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;parted ways&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; with the saffron party over the &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.dailyo.in/variety/citizenship-amendment-bill-citizenship-bill-bangladeshi-immigrants-asia-bibi/story/1/28971.html' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;Citizenship Bill.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;So, there is a wide perception in political circles that the BJP will not be able to repeat its 2014 performance&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; and it may even end up losing the seats it won previously.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;However, there are also important factors which cannot be denied &amp;mdash; and which, if carefully analysed, actually present a different picture.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;First of all, lately, the BJP has realised there is some resentment against it and has brought in Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal (who was previously associated with AASU) to clarify the party's stand that the Bill will not be implemented at the cost of Assamese interests and no one will automatically get Indian citizenship without verification by the local administration.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;&lt;img title='assam-_051218044116_012919072428.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201901/assam-_051218044116_012919072428.jpg' alt='assam-_051218044116_012919072428.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has parted ways with the&amp;nbsp;BJP over the Citizenship Bill. (Photo: PTI)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;The applicant also has to prove that the individual is a victim of persecution in the three mentioned countries &amp;mdash; Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh &amp;mdash; and has lived in India for the last seven years till 31 December, 2014. Not only this, the Union cabinet has recently decided to set up a high level committee to look into the implementation of Clause 6 of the 1985 Assam Accord, which ensures protection of the Assamese community in terms of reservation in Assembly seats and protection of Assamese and other indigenous tribes and job quotas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;Clearly, the BJP is raising the issue of Assamese sentiments to woo them &amp;mdash; and the recent decision of the NDA government to confer the prestigious Bharat Ratna posthumously to the legendary singer Bhupen Hazarika, also called the 'Bard of Brahmaputra', testifies to the saffron party's attempts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;Another important perspective being ignored is the BJP's victory in the Panchayat elections held in December last year, where the party got 51% of the seats at the Zilla Parishad level, the uppermost layer, whereas the party bagged only &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.ndtv.com/guwahati-news/bjp-wins-assam-panchayat-elections-with-42-seats-1966422' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;42% of the seats at the Gram Panchayat level&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, the lowest layer.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;At the village level, the issues are mostly localised &amp;mdash; but as the level rises, local issues start getting blurred with state-level issues. That's why there is a 9% difference.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;But the fact is the results of rural body polls which were contested in the wake of the Citizenship Bill signify the support for the BJP&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; which fought the elections alone&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; hasn&amp;rsquo;t withered.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'&gt;Therefore, saying that AGP's separation may hurt the BJP doesn't stand on the ground because AGP performed poorly in the rural polls. Also, during the last Lok Sabha elections, there was no alliance between the two parties.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;&lt;img title='nrc1-copy_012919072511.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201901/nrc1-copy_012919072511.jpg' alt='nrc1-copy_012919072511.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The AIUDF could lose if it fails to&amp;nbsp;consolidate the important Muslim vote. (Photo: PTI)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;BJP garnered an absolute majority in the 13 Zilla Parishads&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; of which, barring one, all others fall under the core tribal plus Assamese region. Surprisingly, the pro-Muslim AIUDF, led by Badruddin Ajmal, performed poorly, which aided the Congress party to perform better than expected.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;AIUDF&amp;rsquo;s failure is due to consolidation of the Muslim vote&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; especially Bengali Muslims behind the Congress party&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; and as Lok Sabha elections are fought nationally, there is a high chance of more Muslim consolidation in favour of the Grand Old Party.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_17'&gt;In such a scenario, there can be counter polarisation of the tribal plus Assamese voters who may rally behind the BJP&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; as witnessed in the recent local polls&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; because Assam's politics has always revolved around the anti-Bengali Muslim issue. The reasons are the rising figures of Bengali Muslim population, which the indigenous communities view as immigrants, and a decreasing percentage of the Assamese population which is &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.sentinelassam.com/news/assamese-speaking-population-decreasing-alarmingly/' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;presently 48.38% as compared to 57.81% in 1991&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_18'&gt;Obviously, no community would want to be reduced to a minority in the future in their own native land.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_19'&gt;In the present scenario, even if the AGP and the Congress form an alliance&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; although there is a slim chance as they are traditional rivals&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; on a common agenda for protecting Assamese interests, the alliance will not be able to harm the BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_20'&gt;The seats &amp;mdash; Tezpur, Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Gauhati and Nowgong &amp;mdash; were won by the BJP last time by amassing more than the combined percentage of the Congress + AGP alliance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_21'&gt;The alliance will be able to grab only the Mangaldoi seat from the BJP. But the question remains&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; will the Congress ally with the weakening AGP at a time when there are clear signs of growing support for the party due to consolidation of Muslim votes? Also, there is almost no chance of a Congress-AIUDF alliance in the current scenario as it may result in more polarisation of the indigenous community to rally behind the BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_22'&gt;&lt;img title='ajmal690_05071804113_012919072700.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201901/ajmal690_05071804113_012919072700.jpg' alt='ajmal690_05071804113_012919072700.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;AIUDF, which won three seats last time, seems to be strong only in the Dubri seat, represented by its chief Badruddin Ajmal. (Photo: PTI)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_23'&gt;The two seats &amp;mdash; Silchar and Karimganj &amp;mdash; of the Barak valley with a population of 50% and 48% Hindus and Muslims respectively may go to the BJP this time. Silchar was won by Sushmita Dev of the Congress and Karimganj was won by Radheshyam Biswas of the AIUDF. However, the Bengali Hindus who are rigorously supporting the Citizenship Bill will rally behind the BJP because the Congress and the AIUDF are against the Bill.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_24'&gt;Although Sushmita Dev is supporting the Bill going against the Congress&amp;rsquo; stand, there is still very little chance of the Congress retaining the seat. In Karimganj, despite the presence of a Bengali Hindu MP from AIUDF, there are chances of the BJP winning the seat not only due to a Bengali Hindu vote consolidation but also due to the division of Muslim votes between the Congress and the AIUDF.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_25'&gt;Although, in view of national elections, the Congress may pull large chunks of Muslim votes but the AIUDF is still a force here as seen in the recent rural polls.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_26'&gt;Congress is expected to win Kaliabor where the party's MP is Gaurav Gogoi, son of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi. However, in the Autonomous District, the margin between the Congress and the BJP was less than 5% votes. The seat is heavily dominated by Hindu tribals and in the current scenario, there are signs of tribal consolidation behind the BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_27'&gt;As such, the saffron party's recent victory in the North Cachar Hills Autonomous Council, which comes under this constituency, shows growing ST support for the party.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_28'&gt;However, the Congress may be successful in snatching the Barpeta seat from the AIUDF if the trend of Muslim consolidation behind the Congress continues, plus if there is an alliance with the AGP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_29'&gt;&lt;img title='sonowal-690_01111911_012919072855.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201901/sonowal-690_01111911_012919072855.jpg' alt='sonowal-690_01111911_012919072855.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In Assam, the BJP seems to be in a favourable position in nine seats. (Photo: PTI)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_30'&gt;AIUDF, which won three seats last time, seems to be strong only in the Dubri seat represented by its chief Badruddin Ajmal&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; but that is only because there are less chances of the division of Muslim votes. Kokrajhar, a stronghold of the Bodoland People's Front, which was won by an Independent last time, may go to the NDA if the BPF and the BJP contest together.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_31'&gt;Currently, the BPF is the only major BJP ally left in Assam after the end of the AGP-BJP alliance. So, the BJP seems to be favourable in nine seats and if it supports the BPF, NDA can add one more seat&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; although less than the target of achieving 12+ seats.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_32'&gt;Congress is expected to win three seats just like the last polls and the AIUDF, which previously won three seats, seems favourable only in one seat. The regional party, AGP, which won the state elections in 1985 and 1996, will not be able to open its account this time too.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_33'&gt;To win politics, one needs both mathematics and chemistry &amp;mdash; and it presently seems that these factors are favouring the BJP in Assam, where the saffron party is trying to polarise the tribal plus Assamese by invoking NRC and Clause 6 and Hindu Bengalis by the Citizenship Bill.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_34'&gt;However, the BJP's victory could depend on the Congress party&amp;rsquo;s ability to polarise the Muslims vote by invoking its favourite weapon&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; 'secularism&amp;rsquo;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_35'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.dailyo.in/politics/citizenship-amendment-bill-assam-nrc-illegal-immigration-bangladeshi-infiltration-bjp-hindu-muslim-divide/story/1/24330.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read:&amp;nbsp;Citizenship Amendment Bill &amp;mdash; What is it the Assamese fear the most&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_36'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;iframe src='https://www.dailyo.in/embed/070e07' width='690' height='388' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen='true'&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_37'&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

The BJP's victory could depend on the Congress party’s ability to polarise the Muslim vote by invoking its favourite weapon, 'secularism’.

Why BJP could win Assam in 2019's Lok Sabha polls

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-elections-assam-assembly-polls-badruddin-ajmal-aiudf-bjp-congress-agp-23942

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been strengthened in Assam after high-profile leaders from other parties defected&amp;nbsp;to it ahead of the &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.livemint.com/Politics/zvfNoZUg91K7JzkuqvNHeP/Assembly-election-results-Counting-begins-in-Assam.html' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;2016 Assembly elections&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. The party received some tall leaders, especially, from the Congress and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;&lt;img title='assam690_050718040927.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201805/assam690_050718040927.jpg' alt='assam690_050718040927.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;From the Congress, the party has got&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt; &lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/tarun-gogois-ex-confidante-himanta-biswa-sarma-joins-bjp-in-style/' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;Himanta Biswa Sarma&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, who walked out of Tarun Gogoi's government in 2017. From the AGP, it gained its chief minister &lt;a href='http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/sarbananda-sonowal-rise-to-top-from-agp-mla-to-becoming-bjp-chief-ministerial-candidate/' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;Sarbananda Sonowal&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/a&gt;and many other leaders. Himanta Biswa Sarma has a lot of experience and is an asset to the BJP. But Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) too have influential local leaders.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;It is thus important that the Opposition parties start working on a broader alliance of all secular forces since their combined strength can halt BJP's victory march in the state in the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;It is hard to understand the politics of Assam without the knowledge of ethnic and religious make-up of the state. Assam has the second-largest Muslim population for any Indian state after Jammu and Kashmir. And it is a fact which no political party can choose to ignore.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;The dominant Muslim voter base places its trust on AIUDF, a party that largely represents the political aspirations of the minority community. The same applies to the Congress, which projects itself as a secular alternative.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;The AIUDF is an important player in Muslim-dominated areas, especially in lower Assam, accounting for 54 per cent of the Muslim population, where it gained more votes than the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;The AIUDF supremo, Badruddin Ajmal, had initially sought an alliance with the Congress for the &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.ndtv.com/elections-news/2016-assembly-election-results-for-assam-live-updates-1407726' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;2016 Assembly elections&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, but former chief minister Tarun Gogoi did not want to lose his party's primacy over Muslim voters. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the vote shares of the major players such as BJP, Congress and AIUDF in Assam were 36.86 per cent, 29.9 per cent and 14.98 per cent respectively. The AGP, Bodoland&amp;nbsp;People's Front (BPF) and the Left Front got a comparatively smaller share of 3.8 per cent, 2.21 per cent and 0.62 per cent, respectively. Out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, BJP bagged seven, losing three seats each to the Congress and the AIUDF and one to an independent candidate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;&lt;img title='ajmal690_050718041134.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201805/ajmal690_050718041134.jpg' alt='ajmal690_050718041134.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The AIUDF supremo, Badruddin Ajmal, had initially sought an alliance with the Congress for the 2016 Assembly elections.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;In the 2016 Assembly elections, the BJP sowed the seeds of doubts in the minds of the voters by raking up the possibility of an alliance between the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;On the complicated multi-ethnic canvas of Assam, the party has been covering almost all the sub-national groups. The BJP polarised the election with party president, Amit Shah, making statements like: 'Hindu refugees from Bangladesh will be given Indian citizenship if the BJP comes to power in Assam. Some Hindus have come from Bangladesh due to religious disturbances. The BJP will give all of them citizenship once we come to power in Assam. Not only in Assam, but the party will work towards giving Indian citizenship to all Bangladeshi Hindu immigrants across the country.'&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;The 'fragile peace' that was established in the state following the Assam Accord, is now threatened due to the attempts being made by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and BJP to divide the Bengali-speaking population along religious lines.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'&gt;Assamese nationalism had always rallied around linguistic identity with no room for religion to sneak in. But the BJP introduced a religious angle to the issue. While the Congress refused any pre-election alliance with AIUDF, the BJP successfully tied up with the AGP and BPF in its first serious bid to win the state.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;In 2016, BPF had won all the seats it contested in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts. The AGP rose from five seats in 2011 to 14 in 2016. The BJP, which won the support of the 'anti-immigrant' voters who were traditional voters of the AGP, jumped from 5 seats in 2011 to 60 in 2016.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;The NDA alliance needed 64 seats to form the government and it bagged 86. The vote shares of BJP, Congress and AIUDF were 29.5 per cent, 31 per cent and 13 per cent while that of AGP, BPF and Left were 8.1 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;What was unexpected for the BJP alliance was that it got a significant number of votes from the local Assamese Muslims, who consider themselves different from the Bengali Muslims attached to Ajmal.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_17'&gt;The picture, however, could have been different had Congress stitched an anti-BJP secular democratic alliance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_18'&gt;The Congress, AIUDF, and Left Front are the only parties in Assam that haven't compromised their political positions with regards to the BJP. The AGP and BPF have switched over to various alliances in the past. The AGP miserably failed to meet the expectations of the people of Assam.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_19'&gt;&lt;img title='tarun690_050718041330.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201805/tarun690_050718041330.jpg' alt='tarun690_050718041330.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Tarun Gogoi did not want to lose his party's primacy over Muslim voters.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_20'&gt;The state witnessed a downspin in economy, unemployment was glaring, and people working for the government jobs were never paid on time during AGP government's tenure. Added to it was the horror of the United Liberation Front of Assam. The Bodos, on the other hand, have been openly attacking Muslims by calling them Bangladeshis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_21'&gt;The only possible way to stop the BJP's victory march, at this point, seems to be an alliance between the Congress and AIUDF in Assam.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_22'&gt;Looking at the 2016 Assembly poll results, it is clear that the alliance had the potential of getting at least 44 per cent vote share as compared to that of 29.5 per cent of BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_23'&gt;Ajmal was ready to openly discuss the possibility of such an alliance but the Congress did not agree. As a result the Muslim votes got split helping NDA gobble up a simple majority. Though the spheres of influence of the two parties overlap in a large number of constituencies, their combined strength could have made a difference in at least 15 constituencies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_24'&gt;The Congress and AIUDF put together currently have 38 seats and the situation would have been drastically different had there been an alliance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_25'&gt;Instead of stitching a last-minute alliance in 2019, the Congress and AIUDF must start building cadre-based understanding among their workers and supporters at the earliest in case they want to give the country a secular democratic alternative.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_26'&gt;If the Congress, instead of contesting all the seats, focuses on capturing Silchar, Autonomous District, Guwahati, Mangaldoi, Kaliabor, Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur and Tezpur Lok Sabha constituencies and the AIUDF concentrates on its campaigns in the four Lok Sabha constituencies of Karimganj, Dhubri, Barpeta, Nowgong and Kokrajhar, then the BJP would face an erosion of votes in previously won Lok Sabha seats.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_27'&gt;Upper Assam, which is considered to be the economic nerve centre of Assam, comprises Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh and Kaliabor constituencies. The cadres of RSS and its affiliate organisations had fanned out in the Upper Assam region and had campaigned for the BJP for the 2016 polls.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_28'&gt;The cadre strength of RSS, which has increased substantially in the past couple of years, has left the opposition parties worried. The Congress is the only party which has considerable presence in Upper Assam and can tackle BJP with an alliance. The vote shares of INC and AIUDF clubbed together was around 33 per cent as compared to 37.25 per cent of the BJP when both parties contested against each other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_29'&gt;The North Assam division consists of Tezpur Lok Sabha constituency. The Congress still had the potential to successfully bag the Tezpur seat provided it manages to pool in Congress and AIUDF votes and consolidates other anti-BJP votes in the constituency. The vote share of Congress combine was 30 per cent in 2016 as compared to 35.45 per cent of BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_30'&gt;The parties like AGP don't have any considerable influence in Lower Assam and Barak Valley. The AGP propagates rigid regionalism, raising the old anxieties about land and identity, preoccupied with the idea of cultural purity. The BJP had turned the anti-immigrant feeling in Assam into a Hindu versus Muslim conflict for harvesting electoral dividends from the resulting communal polarisation in the Lok Sabha as well as Assembly polls.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_31'&gt;The more the BJP rants in favour of Hindu communal forces, the more the sectarian elements among the minority communities get active. Issues related to Islamic monuments such as Babri Masjid and Taj Mahal are raised to communalise the atmosphere.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_32'&gt;&lt;img title='biswa690_050718041455.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201805/biswa690_050718041455.jpg' alt='biswa690_050718041455.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_33'&gt;Attempts are made to distort history and make a 'new history' for the generations to come where the name of Muslim contributors to the country will either be absent or counted among the villains.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_34'&gt;Both the communal forces&amp;nbsp;&amp;mdash; Hindu and Muslim &amp;mdash; nurture each other. If the Hindus get carried away by BJP's propaganda, Muslims take refuge in AIUDF. The result is nothing but damage to Indian unity and a fertile ground for all kinds of divisive forces. The only difference between BJP and AIUDF is that the latter does not propagate violence, enforce religion and expand itself to the rest of the country.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_35'&gt;Himanta Biswa Sarma was hailed because his strategy of stitching a Prashant Kishor brokered BJP + AGP + BPF worked.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_36'&gt;Had the BJP lost the election, almost all these decisions could have been cited as causes. For some people, the idea of the Congress and AIUDF coming together might be deeply problematic, given RSS and BJP have been propagating an anti-Hindu image of the Congress. But Congress and AIUDF are not going to make any progress by simply pointing fingers at each other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_37'&gt;Apart from the Hindu-Muslim divide, other ethnic groups will also play an important role in certain pockets in 2019. For example, the Kokrajhar constituency is home to Bodos. This area has seen rapid growth of the Muslim population. The proportion of Scheduled Tribes (mainly Bodos), constituting about one-third of the population, has shrunk. It is this demographic transition which triggered the violent skirmishes in the region.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_38'&gt;The BJP is expected to benefit from an alliance with BPF and anti-Muslim sentiments in this belt. Now it is up to the Congress and AIUDF on how well they convince the Muslims of Kokrajhar.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_39'&gt;There are plenty of things that Congress did under Tarun Gogoi that AIUDF wished it hadn't. But if the two parties remain focused on their differences there isn't much for them to achieve. However it does leave scope for some right wing form of conservative rule or something potentially even worse.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_40'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.dailyo.in/politics/modi-in-nepal-karnataka-elections-narendra-modi-kp-oli-prachanda-pashupatinath-temple/story/1/23927.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read:&amp;nbsp;How Modi is taking Karnataka election campaign to Nepal&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_41'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;iframe src='https://www.dailyo.in/embed/45c745' width='690' height='388' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen='true'&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

It is important the Opposition parties work together to halt BJP's victory march.

Why Congress needs to tie up with AIUDF for 2019 general elections

https://www.dailyo.in/voices/bipin-rawat-aiudf-indian-army-bangladesh-migrants-muslims-22518

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;Mainstream media very conveniently skips the horrifying accounts of deprivation, marginalisation and subjugation of Assam&amp;rsquo;s Bengal-origin Muslims. Despite having legitimate documents of land purchase and living in these areas for decades, they are vilified as illegal immigrants. The simmering discontent within the Muslim community over their witchhunt was tapped by the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), brought into national focus this week after Indian Army chief general Bipin Rawat linked the party&amp;rsquo;s growth with the influx of illegal Bangladeshi migrants.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;Rawat stated that AIUDF was growing at a much faster pace than BJP. It is important to mention here that while the Indian Army chief didn&amp;rsquo;t shy away from commenting on a Muslim political party, he was silent when RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat insulted the Indian Army with his claim that his Hindutva outfit could ready an army in just three days.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;&lt;img title='dar-690_022318063300.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201802/dar-690_022318063300.jpg' alt='dar-690_022318063300.jpg' /&gt;&lt;span style='text-align: left; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; color: #000000;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;It must be emphasised Indian Army is not a political force and does not play any part in the administration of the nation.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;The chief of army staff indulging in adverse comments about a political outfit and the foreign policy aims of India&amp;rsquo;s neighbours is unfortunate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;Yet, this is not an isolated incident since it is part of a larger trend of the politicisation of the Indian Army. India&amp;rsquo;s military policy has drastically changed under the leadership of General Bipin Rawat, Narendra Modi and his national security adviser, Ajit Doval.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;It must be emphasised Indian Army is not a political force and does not play any part in the administration of the nation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;Since his appointment, Bipin Rawat, with his unsavoury comments, has often crossed the line. In January, Rawat attacked China on the Doklam crisis, calling for a multi-pronged approach, including diplomatic, military and partnerships with other countries in the region, to deal with Beijing. Then he waded into choppy waters by arguing that India is ready to call Pakistan&amp;rsquo;s nuclear &amp;ldquo;bluff&amp;rdquo;. Such issues regarding defence and foreign policies should be the domain of the respective ministries and not the army chief.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;Power corridors have, for decades, been rife with rumours that the politician-army nexus has, to some degree, weakened the Army general&amp;rsquo;s professionalism and apolitical stature. When AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi pointed that five out of the seven people killed in a recent terror attack in Kashmir were Muslim soldiers, Indian Army itself &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' title='jumped'  rel='nofollow' href='https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/in-a-veiled-attack-on-owaisis-muslim-soldiers-comment-army-says-we-do-not-commun/308293' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;jumped&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; into the fiasco to rebut Owaisi, arguing that he was trying to &amp;ldquo;communalise martyrs&amp;rdquo; instead of letting politicians respond to his allegations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;In the short run, BJP and Modi might succeed electorally by actively using the armed forces to promote their political agenda. But this trend poses a serious survival crisis for India&amp;rsquo;s risky democratic social fabric. Masses have been led to believe that those being sceptical of the government&amp;rsquo;s policies are traitors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;In the latest instance, facts suggest Rawat&amp;rsquo;s allegations are unfounded. It must be noted that the party had given 40 per cent tickets to non-Muslims candidates in Assembly election 2011. Among the winners in Assembly election 2011, there were 16 Muslims, two non-Muslims from SC and ST backgrounds and one female candidate. Thus, a social engineering with backward communities yielded good results for AIUDF.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;The vote share of AIUDF in Lok Sabha elections dipped from 16 per cent in 2009 to 14.8 per cent in 2014. It also witnessed marginal increase in vote share during the Assembly elections &amp;mdash; from 12.5 per cent in 2011 to 13 per cent in 2016. On the other hand, the vote share of BJP in 2011 was 11.4 per cent and it reached 29.5 per cent in 2016. Furthermore, BJP&amp;rsquo;s vote share went above 53 per cent in the parliamentary by-polls held same year. Statistics prove that the remarks of the army general are illogical.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;lsquo;Nationalism versus Muslims&amp;rsquo; is dangerous&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'&gt;Hindu nationalist political parties often complain that Muslims should be brought into the &amp;ldquo;mainstream&amp;rdquo;, but when AIUDF wins parliamentary and Assembly elections and strengthens democracy, a baseless allegation is made against the community and the party. Rawat&amp;rsquo;s assertions have , under the Narendra Modi government, there is serious trepidation that the Army is being drawn into the murky waters of the nation&amp;rsquo;s politics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;Its One Rank, One Pension policy has divided the nation&amp;rsquo;s Army community. It has not just selected a very controversial former army chief General VK Singh in his cabinet of ministers, but also embarrassed two outstanding Army officers, who were superseded to appoint General Bipin Rawat. The Army chief must not forget that he is a role model. Soldiers look up to this chief as an authority who would do his best for their betterment by interacting with the government in power. For them, he&amp;rsquo;s no less than a demigod. His post is unlike that of politicians in our country, who are generally considered unreliable individuals interested only in capturing power and winning elections through any means.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;Singh&amp;rsquo;s support and participation in Army-related matters, including the OROP agitation, has been precious little. Since it was the Army that enabled him to rise to his present post, he should have refrained from making adverse comments, let alone criticise protesters. By flirting with politics, the chief has let down the prestige of the position he holds and joined the ranks of those with whom the Army maintains distance. If this becomes a benchmark, every future Army chief could begin contemplating a political career while in service and openly support the party he is likely to join while he is the highest authority of the military.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;This would imply the complete politicisation of the Army right from the top, signalling the end of a glorious apolitical service.&lt;/p&gt;

Army chief's comments on the All India United Democratic Front were uncalled for.

Bipin Rawat is destroying the legacy of India's glorious Army

https://www.dailyo.in/variety/general-bipin-rawat-indian-aiudf-muslims-bangladesh-army-chief-22493

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;We have been told that the Indian Army is apolitical and that dragging the Army into politics or political debates is against the tenets of nationalism. But what are we supposed to do if the serving chief of the Army staff himself &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='http://indianexpress.com/article/india/maulana-badruddin-ajmals-aiudf-grew-faster-than-bjp-says-army-chief-bipin-rawat-5073523/' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;takes to politics&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;? Precious little.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;&lt;img title='rawat690_022218043954.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201802/rawat690_022218043954.jpg' alt='rawat690_022218043954.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;Speaking at a seminar on India's Northeast, Bridging Gaps and Securing Borders, Army chief general Bipin Rawat said: 'There is a party called AIUDF&amp;hellip; they have grown in a faster time-frame than the BJP has grown over the years. When we talk of Jan Sangh with two members of Parliament and where they have reached, AIUDF is moving at a faster pace in the state of Assam. Finally, what will be the state of Assam, we will have to take a call.'&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;Unfortunately, in doing so, general Rawat has undermined the institution which has so far remained highly respectable and above criticism. An institution whose sacrifices have not just been appreciated, but revered across the length and breadth of India. While it is deeply saddening to note how the Army chief is trying to please the party in power, it is also a scary scenario when the head of the Army appears to be endorsing the 'us' versus 'them' narrative.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-lang='en'&gt;&lt;p id='p_5' dir='ltr' lang='en'&gt;AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front) have grown in a faster time-frame than the BJP grew over the years. When we talk of Jan Sangh with two MPs &amp; where they have reached, AIUDF is moving at a faster pace in the state of Assam: Army Chief General Bipin Rawat (21.02.18) &lt;a href='https://t.co/XUIlBDhef6'&gt;pic.twitter.com/XUIlBDhef6&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; ANI (@ANI) &lt;a href='https://twitter.com/ANI/status/966478959234793472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'&gt;February 22, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;Armed forces, not just in India but globally, unite democratic nations. They enjoy the unflinching and unquestioned support of those&amp;nbsp;they guard.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The context&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;For the uninitiated, it is important to understand what exactly the context in which general Rawat spoke was.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;General Rawat was talking about the security threat faced by India&amp;nbsp;from both Pakistan and China. He said the influx of people from Bangladesh into the Northeast was 'planned' and part of proxy warfare by Pakistan with support from China. So far so good. But general Rawat went on to attribute the rise of Muslims in Assam to the growth of AIUDF. Not only that, he compared it with the growth of BJP in India.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;Just what the need for general Rawat to do the unwarranted was remains unexplained.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Rise of AIUDF&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;The AIUDF, formed in October 2005, has grown to have three members in Parliament and 13 legislators in the Assam Assembly. The party, also known as Sarva Bharatiya Sanyukt Ganatantrik Morcha, is primarily active in the state of Assam and claims to champion the 'cause of Muslims' in the state.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-lang='en'&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'' dir='ltr' lang='en'&gt;Respect Army General, but he's been misinformed: &lt;a href='https://twitter.com/hashtag/AIUDF?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'&gt;#AIUDF&lt;/a&gt; chiefRead &lt;a href='https://twitter.com/ANI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'&gt;@ANI&lt;/a&gt; story | &lt;a href='https://t.co/TDS8k8w8e3'&gt;https://t.co/TDS8k8w8e3&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href='https://t.co/2KfupC9SxC'&gt;pic.twitter.com/2KfupC9SxC&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; ANI Digital (@ani_digital) &lt;a href='https://twitter.com/ani_digital/status/966692671950475264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'&gt;February 22, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;The party rose to prominence on the back of its anti-Congress campaign, while the BJP appeared an ideological opponent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;General Rawat has attributed this rise of the AIUDF to the influx of Muslims from Bangladesh, which&amp;nbsp;has for long been an issue that parties across ideological and political divides have capitalised on. But this is perhaps the first instance of a serving Army chief getting into it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;Political parties, general Rawat must know, have a right to grow in the country. This right is guaranteed under the Constitution. The AIUDF has it and so does the BJP. To comment on this is not the Army chief's domain. The growth and decimation of political parties in this country, proud of its diversity, is a reflection of the strength of its democratic spirit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_17'&gt;No Indian citizen, civilian or otherwise, has the right to question it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_18'&gt;Political parties have condemned the Army chief's comments.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-lang='en'&gt;&lt;p id='p_19'' dir='ltr' lang='en'&gt;What,the Army Chief should not interfere in political matters it is not his work to comment on the rise of a political party ,Democracy &amp; Constitution allows it and Army will always work under an Elected Civilian leadership &lt;a href='https://t.co/PacWqqYXz1'&gt;https://t.co/PacWqqYXz1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; Asaduddin Owaisi (@asadowaisi) &lt;a href='https://twitter.com/asadowaisi/status/966480955086028800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'&gt;February 22, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p id='p_20'&gt;AIUDF president &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='http://indianexpress.com/article/india/aiudf-president-badruddin-ajmal-army-chief-bipin-rawat-political-statement-5073892/' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;Badruddin Ajmal&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;called the statement 'shocking'.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_21'&gt;&lt;iframe style='border: none; overflow: hidden;' src='https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fmbadruddinajmal%2Fposts%2F1604486852953662&amp;width=500' width='500' height='250' frameborder='0' scrolling='no'&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_22'&gt;It ill behoves general Rawat to take this line because his appointment to the post in December 2016 has been a subject of criticism. At the time, it&amp;nbsp;was alleged that he was&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-4046268/Congress-accuse-Modi-whimsically-cherry-picking-unqualified-General-Bipin-Rawat-new-Army-chief.html' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;&amp;nbsp;cherrypicked&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;over two senior officers, lieutenant general Praveen Bakshi and lieutenant general PM Hariz. His statements only betray incompetence, and do little to silence his detractors. And while such criticism is&amp;nbsp;routine&amp;nbsp;for politicians, it is dangerous for the Army.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_23'&gt;The government had clarified he was found to be best suited to deal with counter-terrorism operations and proxy wars. It was only fair to&amp;nbsp;trust the government that this was indeed the case. But the Army chief's statement, clearly toeing the BJP's line on Muslim appeasement by political parties for votes, raises questions&amp;nbsp;over the apolitical nature of Army chiefs and their appointment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_24'&gt;The Army has &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nothing-political-army-clarifies-after-ajmal-objects-to-gen-bipin-rawat-s-comments-on-aiudf-illegal-migrants/story-1MbqazVTYwJyN7wCuXVSlO.html' target='_blank' rel='nofollow'&gt;issued a statement&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; saying the utterance wasn't political in nature and shouldn't be seen thus. We wish it wasn't.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_25'&gt;Successive governments have compromised India's independent and autonomous institutions either by means of lures or veiled threats, the &lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.dailyo.in/politics/bjp-election-commission-up-elections-2017/story/1/15859.html' target='_blank'&gt;Election Commission&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;being&amp;nbsp;their latest victim.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_26'&gt;The entire country has a stake in seeing to it that the Army remains both autonomous and apolitical in nature. General Bipin Rawat's statement should thus never be repeated, neither by him nor his successors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_27'&gt;Institutions build respect through years and years of hard work. The Army has earned it with both sweat and blood.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_28'&gt;The Army chief shouldn't compromise its credibility with such statements. We hope there will be due course correction by general Rawat, we are still looking up to him with hope and respect because he leads an institution we are proud of and want to continue doing so.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_29'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='https://www.dailyo.in/arts/cbfc-black-panther-hanuman-hinduism-superheroes/story/1/22487.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read:&amp;nbsp;CBFC offended by 'Hanuman' in Black Panther is divine stupidity&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_30'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;iframe src='https://www.dailyo.in/embed/b574b5' width='690' height='388' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen='true'&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

By attacking AIUDF, he has undermined the credibility of an institution which has, so far, remained highly respectable and above criticism.

Army chief Bipin Rawat should not meddle in politics

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-bjp-win-assembly-elections-agp-amit-shah-ram-madhav-congress-10734

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;There was intense pressure from the Assam unit of the RSS on the state as well as the national BJP leadership to not opt for an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) because it saw the AGP as insignificant and thought that the BJP could win the election without it. A small section of the Assam BJP also supported the RSS on this.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;However, both BJP president Amit Shah and general secretary Ram Madhav rejected the proposal outright, convinced that the alliance with AGP was necessary. It is clear from the results that not tying up with the AGP could have upset the BJP&amp;rsquo;s apple cart.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='690ci1z6buwuaah3i__052016124741.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201605/690ci1z6buwuaah3i__052016124741.jpg' alt='690ci1z6buwuaah3i__052016124741.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;strong&gt;CM-elect Sarbananda Sonowal with BJP leader Ram Madhav after the win.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;But the friction on the issue left some bad blood between the pro- and anti-AGP sections in the Sangh Parivar, which also reflected in the results, according to sources in the local units of the BJP and the RSS.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;Such was the longing of the RSS that the BJP should go to the polls minus AGP that some of the more disgruntled elements in the saffron body got together and put up rebel candidates against the BJP alliance in seven seats, two of which the alliance candidates lost by small margins because of a split in votes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;The RSS-BJP rift on the Assam alliance issue might come up for scrutiny before the top leadership of both the sister organisations given its serious nature.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;There were reservations in the AGP too about an alliance with the BJP and many from within the party had, in fact, pressured Prafulla Kumar Mahanta to discard the proposal for the BJP alliance. However, Ram Madhav persevered in his pursuit. He went to the extent of getting in touch even with the second-rung AGP leadership to put pressure on the top AGP leadership.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;In the process, Madhav even went to the homes of some of the junior AGP leaders to convince them and earned the label of an artful negotiator, a role he played well in the alliance with PDP in Jammu and Kashmir too.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;For the ground-level strategy, Himanta Biswa Sharma, who left the Congress to join the BJP, proved very useful. The inputs gathered by Madhav and Shah were useful in charting out the right party campaign, which suited the tone and tenor of the Assamese people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;As a party leader put it: &amp;ldquo;Unlike Bihar where the campaign was shrill and even misdirected in the form of some unwarranted personal attacks that backfired, the campaign in Assam had the right mix. It was low-key, centred on local issues of development, corruption and infiltration but at the same time it didn&amp;rsquo;t play up the infiltration issue beyond a point.&amp;rdquo; And right from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Ram Madhav to the lower rung, BJP leaders spoke in the same language while campaigning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;Plus, the BJP played on a possible post-poll alliance between Congress and Badruddin Ajmal&amp;rsquo;s AIUDF, thus creating doubts about both in the minds of the people. Most importantly, on the complicated multi-ethnic canvas of Assam, its skilful strategy addressed almost all the sub-national groups.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;What was surprising for the BJP alliance was that it got a significant number of votes of the local Assamese Muslims who consider themselves different from the Bengali Muslims attached to Ajmal.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;As the editor of RSS mouthpiece&lt;em&gt; Organiser&lt;/em&gt; put it : &amp;ldquo;BJP&amp;rsquo;s campaign package was indeed very precise.&amp;rdquo; Most agree on that given the dividends it has brought to the BJP.&lt;/p&gt;

They stitched an alliance with AGP despite opposition from the RSS leadership.

How Amit Shah, Ram Madhav saved BJP from losing Assam

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-elections-results-congress-tarun-gogoi-bjp-sarbananda-sonowal-aiudf-agp-imdt-act-10733

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;The old warhorse Tarun Gogoi who attempted a fourth term as Assam chief minister tried putting up a brave face till Thursday morning though his body language said it all; he had conceded defeat.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;A long innings in politics well fought and sustained though at the end the Congress love for dynastic rule cost him another term. He was adamant about putting his son Gaurav Gogoi an MP ahead of his best man Himanta Biswa Sarma who switched over to the BJP claiming to have strategised the emphatic win for the BJP in Assam.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;Several Congress ministers have lost and so have all the candidates who were given tickets because they were related to one Congress minister or other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #0000ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #0000ff;' href='http://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-election-results-bjp-congress-rahul-gandhi-kashmir-sarbananda-sonowal-article-370/story/1/10724.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read -&amp;nbsp;BJP and what it does with its core values&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;So who will take over from the ageing and tired Gogoi? Gaurav is not ready yet neither will people accept him. Gogoi systematically did not allow a second rung to come up taking down the party with him. The traditional 'Ali-Cooli-Bangali' Congress vote bank had eroded long back with the Bengali Hindu votes divided and a significant section of the Muslim votes drawn to the AIUDF. This year the 'Coolie' or the tea garden community (that has strength of 60 lakhs) may have deserted the Congress too.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;But it was slightly more than just this arithmetic; the utter failure to deliver on promises and a viable alternative with clarity provided by the BJP alliance was the nemesis for Gogoi.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;Assam has the country's worst maternal mortality ratio and a very poor infant mortality rate. Several development indices and most health indicators are abysmally bad. His promise of 65,000 jobs was not met with. He laid far too many foundation stones during his reign (3,000 reportedly) but there is not much as evidence of anything substantial.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #0000ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #0000ff;' href='http://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-election-results-bjp-congress-rahul-gandhi-gaurav-gogoi-sarbananda-sonowal-himanta-biswa-sarma/story/1/10711.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read -&amp;nbsp;Rahul Gandhi and Gaurav Gogoi ensured Congress defeat in Assam&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;Gogoi failed to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 'secret killings' a very sensitive issue in the state on which he rode to power.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;Finally, it was Gogoi's politics of deception that exposed him in front of an electorate repeatedly betrayed by their choice of government.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;It is surely 'farewell Gogoi' but could it also be farewell to the Congress in a state that was considered to be one of the party's last bastions?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Is the monolith Muslim vote a myth in Assam?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'&gt;One of the most written about features of this election was the rise of Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF seen as a party protecting minority rights and playing the kingmaker. He disappointed even himself!&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;But in Assam, the 'who is the minority' discourse has led to decades of bloodshed and identity politics. Every ethnic group feels threatened by other but the perception of a threat against the so called 'illegal migrant from Bangladesh' collectively may have helped a local alliance led by the BJP with a chief ministerial candidate from an indigenous tribal community that went beyond ethnic cleavages.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;Almost a throwback to the '70s, one would imagine but political scientists may differ; the Muslim in Assam is not a monolith. It may have the country's second highest Muslim population with a third of the state's people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #0000ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #0000ff;' href='http://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-election-results-2016-sarbananda-sonowal-bjp-congress-tarun-gogoi-agp-aiudf/story/1/10710.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read -&amp;nbsp;4 reasons why BJP mustn't celebrate Assam victory just yet&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_17'&gt;But it is important to differentiate the many Muslims in the state; Muslim-Axomiya (also called Goriya, Tholua or Khilonjia), Bengali speaking or Bhotia, up-country or Juluha (from UP and Bihar), and immigrant Muslims, referred to as Miya.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_18'&gt;It would be incorrect and politically dangerous to refer to all these communities as 'the other' or 'the immigrant'. The first mention of Muslims in Assam can be found in Ibn-Batuta's &lt;em&gt;Rehla&lt;/em&gt; in the 12th century.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_19'&gt;There is physical evidence of Muslim settlements in north Guwahati from the early 13th century. The BJP did well either through design or by accident not to play into Ajmal's politics lest they polarise all the Muslims. That may have worked.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_20'&gt;But will Ajmal and the AIUDF survive? Certainly, given that a large chunk of Muslims would now be worried and he could exploit that situation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_21'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Who is Sarbananda Sonowal and how did the BJP get it right in choosing him?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_22'&gt;Sarbananda Sonowal may not be the charismatic former student leader or even a communicator like Himanta Biswa Sarma now BJP's political manager in the state but he has solid credentials for a state where demography and identity have provided the political landscape for the last 35 years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='sonowal-759_052016114121.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201605/sonowal-759_052016114121.jpg' alt='sonowal-759_052016114121.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sarbananda Sonowal to be next Assam CM. (PTI)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_23'&gt;It was Sonowal's challenge to the discriminatory IMDT (Illegal Migration Determination by Tribunal) Act applicable only for Assam that lends credence to his otherwise lacklustre political career. The Act was scrapped and that helped his rise. He joined the BJP only in 2011 but managed to grab a ministerial post in Delhi.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_24'&gt;The BJP's choice of Sonowal's as the chief ministerial candidate was a masterstroke; he is now the first indigenous tribal chief minister in a state where identity is paramount. He was a student leader that stormed the state wresting power in the '80s and was later the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) legislator.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_25'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #0000ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #0000ff;' href='http://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-election-results-2016-bjp-sarbananda-sonowal-congress-tarun-gogoi-agp-bpf-aasu-ram-madhav/story/1/10706.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read -&amp;nbsp;5 reasons Assam voted for BJP&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_26'&gt;His image of the man who challenged the IMDT and his profile brought back the memories from the agitation. This may have just scripted the return of the AGP who managed to win significant numbers. Most had written them off.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_27'&gt;Sonowal also marks the departure of a BJP resting on Modi alone. Now they have a tested strategy and a better one at that where local leaders can lead the campaign. In the east, the BJP is perceived as a 'north Indian party'. Hence, the selection of locals and delegating responsibility to them dispels that sense.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_28'&gt;At the end everything seems to have worked well for the BJP alliance but does that mean better governance?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_29'&gt;I could stick my neck out and say, I doubt!&lt;/p&gt;

Taran Gogoi's politics of deception exposed him in front of an electorate repeatedly betrayed by their choice of government.

Is it the end of Congress in Assam?

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-election-results-2016-sarbananda-sonowal-bjp-congress-tarun-gogoi-agp-aiudf-10710

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;The BJP has won Assam for the first time ever. Before it goes over the top in celebrating its arrival in the&amp;nbsp;Northeast, the saffron party must pause and think if it is indeed a big victory. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;Here are four reasons why BJP should go slow with the celebrations:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1. Anti-incumbency:&lt;/strong&gt; The Congress had been ruling the state for the last 15 years and it had to go. At 82, Tarun Gogoi is an old man and there was a call for change. So, it is the Congress veteran who lost the election more than the BJP winning it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2. Division of vote:&lt;/strong&gt; The fact of the matter is the BJP has won Assam by sheer division of votes that is reminiscent of its grand victory in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. With the AIUDF and the Congress failing to come together, the Assam verdict comes as no big surprise. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='assam-story_051916020711.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201605/assam-story_051916020711.jpg' alt='assam-story_051916020711.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his election campaign in Assam.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3. Polarisation:&lt;/strong&gt; In Assam, Muslims constitute a 34 per cent of the population. The BJP along with its ideological mentor, the RSS, had raised the bogey of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants as its prime campaign. The fear factor polarised the votes in favour of the saffron party.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4. Mahanta factor:&lt;/strong&gt; BJP ally, the Assam Gana Parishad, has contributed significantly to the victory of the alliance. The Prafull Kumar Mahanta-led Assam-centric party is expected to win nearly 20 seats while the BJP will not be able to reach the halfway mark of 63. Therefore, it is not a standalone victory for the BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;If this tally lasts till the end of the counting, the BJP will face a big trouble from its allies, mainly Mahanta.&lt;/p&gt;

The party will face big trouble from its allies, mainly Prafull Kumar Mahanta.

4 reasons why BJP mustn't celebrate Assam victory just yet

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-polls-aiudf-badaruddin-ajmal-muslims-kashmir-tarun-gogoi-secularism-9746

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;In its official vision statement published for public consumption on its website, the All India United Democratic&amp;nbsp; Front (AIUDF) till late on March 26 night asserted its primary vision statement - 'to sabotage our millenial heritage and composite culture'. The declaration of this statement needs to be deconstructed in the light of the electoral atomosphere in Assam.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='website2803mbed_032816010839.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201603/website2803mbed_032816010839.jpg' alt='website2803mbed_032816010839.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;strong&gt;AIUDF's website which mentioned the controversial point but which has now been removed.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;Assam goes for the first phase of polls on the Apil 4, followed by the second phase on April 11.&amp;nbsp; By now, it is quite clear from the mood of the people of the state that they will choose a government which lays a roadmap for swift development. But even more important is the rather vexed question which a retired IPS officer in the state asked Home Minister Rajnath Singh during one of his official visits to Assam, 'Development for whom?'&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;It is pertinent here to introduce a few statistics comparing the 2001 and 2011 census data for Assam:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1.&lt;/strong&gt; In 2001, the Muslim population in Assam was 30.9 per cent. After a decade, it has risen to 34.22 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2.&lt;/strong&gt; In 2001, there were six Muslim dominated districts in Assam. In 2011, this number has increased to nine - Barpeta, Dhubri, Karimganj, Goalpara, Darrang, Bongaigaon, Hailakandi, Nagaon and Morigaon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3.&lt;/strong&gt; Dhubri district has recorded the highest Muslim population of 79.67 per cent in the state, shrinking the Hindu population to 19.92 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4.&lt;/strong&gt; The highest growth rate of Muslim population has been in Barpeta district, where it has grown at 11.73 per cent between 2001 and 2011. In this district, the Hindu population has declined to 29.10 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5.&lt;/strong&gt; In Goalpara district, the Hindu population has remained stagnant at 34.50 per cent while the Muslim population touched 57.52 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;6.&lt;/strong&gt; Nagaon is another district where the Muslim population has grown by at least four per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;This statistical context is important in order to trace the root of these questions. The apprehension with respect to the development narrative of the state stems from a deep rooted psyche of regional sentiments in Assam. Some of my personal experiences involve being shocked at hearing a vegetable vendor at one instance and a cab driver in another articulate with fear and finality that Assam will be the 'next Kashmir' in no less than a decade if the present condition continues unabated. When probed, all seem to refer to these hard census statistics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;In fact, it is within this deliberative framework that the last Assembly elections were fought in Assam. Chief minister Tarun Gogoi had asked, 'Who is Badruddin Ajmal?' With this statement alone, he was able to consolidate those votes that till date, since the unfortunate Nellie massacre, most obviously gravitate on the borders of insomniac insecurity; that of indigenous citizens of the state losing their historical claim over Axomia Aai, that of being ousted, culturally, from their own homeland.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;It is also within this framework that one needs to look at AIUDF's official website that claimed for as long as one year that articulated its vision 'to sabotage our millennial heritage and composite culture'. Their website was last updated in September 2015.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'&gt;The vision of sabotage as articulated by AIUDF needs to be analysed as such:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1.&lt;/strong&gt; 'Sabotage' is an act of complete destruction for political and/or military intent. The question is: What does Ajmal want to sabotage? Whose culture does he mean when he uses the adjective 'our'? Is it Indian, considering the ideology of his party AIDUF? Or is it Assam's culture that he wishes to destroy?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2.&lt;/strong&gt; The Muslim question in Assam is starkly different from what it is in the rest of the country. In Assam, which is on the verge of a cultural civil war, as senior journalist Rajeev Bhattacharyya prefers to describe the situation as, the question of Muslim votes is divided into indigenous and foreign - xilonjia versus bidexi. To quote Wasbir Hussain, another senior journalist, 'If you ask an Assamese Muslim man to choose between a Mumbai Muslim bride and an Assamese Hindu bride, he would choose the latter.' The question, Wasbir says, is not religious in Assam but cultural. Therefore, when AIUDF says that its vision is to destroy the composite culture of Assam, it is worth a shudder down the spine of every indigenous citizen in the state.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3.&lt;/strong&gt; The kind of clout Ajmal holds in those districts of Assam which share the porous international boundary with the state is disturbing. His vision statement is threatening. Fraught by the influx of Bangladeshi infiltrators, Assam's unique identity and history seems vulnerable and endangered. The condition invokes the legend of Lachit Borphukan's fight against the bidexis and heralds emotions only those sensitive to the nuances of Assamese culture will appreciate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_17'&gt;Ajmal, an MP from Dhubri, issued a clarification on March 26 lying blatantly that his official website was hacked. However, no aware citizen of India can agree to this false explanation for logical reasons:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_18'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1.&lt;/strong&gt; A hacked website almost always has illicit content - commercial or explicit. AIUDF's website stayed untouched apart from that one defining word in their vision for the past one year. There is ample reason to believe that the act of letting this vision statement the party's priority for almost a year has been a deliberate attempt to polarise the Muslim vote base through an act of emotional appeal - almost militaristic and political in nature. Perhaps, the preparations for these Assembly elections were underway in the style of a classic articulation by Gogoi - grand understanding.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_19'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2.&lt;/strong&gt; A hacked website does not suddenly guarantee the aggrieved user an access to its content. Ajmal's website was updated immediately when the controversy snowballed to prime time stories in Assam on electronic media.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_20'&gt;It is to be noted that except &lt;em&gt;India Today&lt;/em&gt; TV journalist Rahul Kanwal, no 'famous' prime time journalist addressed the deep concern.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_21'&gt;And this dear readers, is the problem with the Indian brand of secularism. I shudder at the thought of a BJP official website making a claim as grave as this - and that too at the run up to one of the most crucial Assembly elections Assam has seen post-independence.&lt;/p&gt;

There's a growing feeling that the state will be the 'next Kashmir' in no less than a decade if the present condition continues unabated.

AIUDF wanting to 'sabotage' composite culture of Assam is worrying

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/assam-polls-bjp-nda-congress-tarun-gogoi-asom-gana-parishad-sarbananda-sonowal-northeast-9694

&lt;p id='p_1'&gt;Assam is witnessing a riveting three-cornered contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Congress and the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). The Congress has been ruling the state for the past 15 years, under Tarun Gogoi.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_2'&gt;The BJP recorded its best performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls bagging seven out of the 14 seats. This performance has put the BJP in the reckoning to win the state for the first time and make its entry into the Northeast. It was leading in 69 Assembly seats, enough to ensure a simple majority on its own. The growth of the BJP was significant as it had managed to win only five seats in the Assembly polls in 2011.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_3'&gt;&lt;span style='color: #3366ff;'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a style='color: #3366ff;' href='http://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-assam-polls-bjp-tarun-gogoi-nitish-kumar-congress-upa-brahmaputra-act-east-policy/story/1/9222.html' target='_blank'&gt;Also read: Why I decided to be BJP's campaign manager in Assam&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_4'&gt;The BJP gained in the elections at the expense of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Congress and Bodoland People's Front (BOPF). It succeeded in attracting Assamese Hindus who were hardcore supporters of the AGP earlier with its consistent stand against illegal Bangladeshi immigration. The Lok Sabha elections witnessed a strong polarisation of Hindu votes in favour of the BJP while the Muslim vote got divided between the AIUDF and Congress.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='graph-6_032316065508.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201603/graph-6_032316065508.jpg' alt='graph-6_032316065508.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_5'&gt;However, it's not going to be a smooth sailing for the BJP. Let's look at the factors which will help the BJP and the points it needs to keep in mind:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_6'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Factors in favour of BJP&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_7'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1. Grand win in municipal polls&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_8'&gt;In the municipal elections held in Assam in February 2015 (touted as semifinals to the Assembly polls in April-May 2016), the BJP captured more than 20 town committees and 23 municipal boards while the ruling Congress managed to win only seven and nine respectively. In 2009, the Congress controlled over 50 per cent of the 74 committees and boards.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_9'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2. Deftly crafted alliances with AGP and BOPF&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_10'&gt;The BJP has roped in the AGP, led by former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, and the BOPF into the NDA fold. While the AGP is way past its heydays with many top leaders already having joined the BJP, it still has pockets of influence among Assamese Hindus.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='gogoi_032316070114.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201603/gogoi_032316070114.jpg' alt='gogoi_032316070114.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;strong&gt;There is anti-incumbency against the Tarun&amp;nbsp;Gogoi government.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_11'&gt;The BOPF has a presence in four Bodo districts of Kokrajhar, Baksa, Udalguri and Chirang. Both parties combined, enjoyed a vote share of 6.1 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and could provide additional cushion to the BJP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_12'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3. Failure of Congress to ally with AIUDF and splitting of Muslim vote&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_13'&gt;The Congress tried to forge an alliance with the AIUDF but talks failed as a result of disagreements over seat-sharing. Together they garnered 44.9 per cent vote share in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014. If they would have fought together in 2014, they would have been leading in 58 seats, the BJP in 57 seats, and 11 seats would have been too close to call. The AIUDF was demanding 60 seats while Congress was willing to give 40-odd.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_14'&gt;The other reason the alliance didn't take off was that both parties have a similar vote bank of Muslims, accounting for 34 per cent of the population. There are 40 seats in the state where the Muslim population is greater than 35 per cent and the Muslims are in a position to influence the outcome in these seats. Both parties wanted to contest on the maximum number of these seats knowing well that chances in other seats are comparatively lesser. The split of the Muslim vote will help the BJP as it did in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_15'&gt;The AIUDF has risen sharply in the political landscape of Assam owing to the perceived failure of the Congress government to 'protect the lives, liberty and property of the Muslim minority'. Badrauddin is also the president of Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind which helps in the mobilisation of Muslims in favour of the AIDUF.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='graph-7_032316065555.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201603/graph-7_032316065555.jpg' alt='graph-7_032316065555.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_16'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4. Anti-incumbency against Gogoi government&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_17'&gt;Gogoi has been in power in Assam for the past 15 years. It's very natural for any such long-serving state government to suffer from anti-incumbency. Additionally, Gogoi has been witnessing rebellion for quite some time resulting in a tall leader like Himanta Biswa Sharma along with his nine MLA supporters leaving the party to join the BJP. This has visibly weakened the party.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_18'&gt;The government has been embroiled in many corruption scams involving at least seven of his ministers. On the economic front, the state is amongst the poorest in the country and the benefits of economic growth under the UPA I and II have not reached the state. Gogoi has also been accused of fanning dynastic politics and projecting family members for key positions in the state. The government has also failed to control ethnic and group clashes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_19'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5. Learning from the mistakes in Bihar: Announcement of CM candidate&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_20'&gt;With more and more elections being fought and won around personalities (for instance, Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and the Assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar last year), the BJP has announced Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal as its chief ministerial candidate in Assam.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_21'&gt;The firebrand and dynamic politician was All Assam Students' Union (AASU) president in the 1990s and is expected to connect with the youth, given that 65 per cent of the population of India is below 35 years of age. He is 53 years old as against his 81-year-old competitor Gogoi.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_22'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;6. Ability to craft a social combination of religious and ethnic groups&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_23'&gt;The BJP emerged as the first choice of both Assamese and Bengali Hindus in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, with more than 60 per cent from both communities coming out and voting for the party. It was able to delicately balance the political claims of both Assamese and Bengali-speaking Hindus which was the main point of discord during the 1979-1984 Assam agitation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_24'&gt;The party also got tremendous support from the tea garden workers and was able to win three out of 14 seats where they have significant influence. Notably, the BJP's vote share among this community was only eight per cent in the 2011 Assembly polls as against 71 per cent recorded by the Congress.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_25'&gt;The strong belief among the Assamese Hindus and tribals that 'immigrants' would outnumber them has helped the BJP to consolidate the votes of these communities in its favour.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='graph-8_032316065631.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201603/graph-8_032316065631.jpg' alt='graph-8_032316065631.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_26'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;7. Congress losing vote share in all states where it has been ruling post the 2014 Lok Sabha elections&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_27'&gt;The Congress, on an average, has lost two-five per cent vote share in state elections where it was in power compared to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 as shown in table below. If this trend continues, it would mean that the party could end up getting anywhere between 25-28 per cent vote share compared to 30 per cent it received in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It has never been able to form the government in Assam with such low vote share. Its lowest vote share when it succeeded in forming the government in the state was 29.4 per cent in 1991 when it won 66 out of 126 seats.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;table width='100%' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0'&gt;&lt;tbody&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;img title='graph-9_032316065659.jpg' src='https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo//story/embed/201603/graph-9_032316065659.jpg' alt='graph-9_032316065659.jpg' /&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;&lt;/tbody&gt;&lt;/table&gt;&lt;p id='p_28'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Factors which BJP needs to be wary of:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_29'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1. Absence of Modi factor&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_30'&gt;We have seen more and more that there has been an absence of Modi wave in state polls. One-fourth of the BJP's votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections were attributed to the Modi factor according to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). This means it could lose some of its vote share ranging from three-seven per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_31'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2. Rebellion by Trinamool BJP&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_32'&gt;A section of BJP leaders miffed with the BJP's alliance with AGP have rebelled and formed a new party called Trinamool BJP. They are expected to put up candidates in 24 seats which have been allocated to the AGP under the quota. This could mar the chances of the party in these seats.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_33'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3. Inability of AGP/BOPF to transfer votes to BJP&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_34'&gt;Critics argue that the AGP is a spent force and would benefit more from this alliance than the BJP. It was not leading in any Assembly seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. It had won only ten seats in the 2011 state polls. Similarly, the BOPF, which was leading in only one seat in the Lok Sabha elections has been given 16 seats. The biggest fear is whether the AGP and BOPF will emerge as the Paswsans/Manjhis of Bihar and hamper the BJP's prospects.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_35'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4. Lack of uniform presence throughout the state&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_36'&gt;The BJP has a strong presence in the Brahmaputra Valley. It retained three of its Lok Sabha seats and snatched four from the Congress in the Valley. However, it lost its Silchar seat to the Congress as it lost Bengali Hindu votes in the Barak Valley.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_37'&gt;Even in Brahmaputra Valley, its presence in lower Assam is limited.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_38'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5. Very high strike rate required to win&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_39'&gt;With 40 Muslim-dominated seats already out of reach of the BJP (which most likely will end up with the AIUDF or Congress), the BJP and allies are essentially contesting on the remaining 86 seats. Out of these 86 seats, it has to win 64 to form the government which results in a strike rate of 74 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_40'&gt;&lt;strong&gt;6. Possibility of AIUDF and Congress coming together post polls is still there&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_41'&gt;In case of a hung Assembly, the Congress and AIUDF can still join hands and form the government to keep so-called communal forces at bay. So emerging as the largest combination may not help the BJP. It needs to at least attain a simple majority.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_42'&gt;To sum up, can the BJP mark its entry in Northeast? Can Assam repeat a Haryana with the Congress being relegated to the third place behind the AIUDF? Can Muslims vote strategically to defeat the BJP? Will the AGP and BOPF repeat Paswan and Manjhi's performance in Bihar in Assam? Can the BJP carry together the inherent contradictions in its support base and allies' vote bank? The answers to some of these questions will decide who the winner is.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_43'&gt;The BJP is undoubtedly the frontrunner in Assam. This is a golden opportunity to form its government in Assam as the Congress is reeling under the pressure of 15 years of misrule, corruption, ethnic clashes, low economic growth and factionalism. If it doesn't it will have only itself to blame.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p id='p_44'&gt;*The Assamese are dominant in Brahmaputra Valley and Bengalis are dominant in Barak Valley.&lt;/p&gt;

Muslims may vote strategically to defeat the saffron brigade in the state.

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