Words alone won't work in the Northeast, Modi

Despite his winning smile, I think it is safe to say, that waving a spear and a dao in a traditional Naga warrior’s headdress may not be Narendra Modi’s best look. However, his four-day visit to India’s Northeastern states is definitely a political masterstroke.

For years, the "Northeast", eight states labeled by a singular, "colonialisk" blanket term - a term that creates a sense of distance and disconnected, has existed on the fringes, well outside the mind-space of the average Indian. Riddled with conflict, corruption and political apathy, the region, in spite of two decades of the "Look East Policy" has by and large not featured in India’s growth story. However, Modi’s "Act East", may now provide the region the catalyst it requires.

With no real industry to speak off and the fact that individually the states have only one or two parliamentary seats (with the exception of Assam with 14), the region has remained politically insignificant and therefore largely ignored by the mainstream, including the media. However, given the high levels of dissatisfaction with the previous government, what the region offers the BJP is an inroad into a traditional Congress bastion.

Looking to expand their political footprint, possibly in the hope of insuring another five years, the Northeast’s collective 25 parliamentary seats are a new political hunting ground for the party in power - with the party and its allies winning a record nine out of 25 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, it would seem that Modi mania is gripping the "far east".

The problems in the region are quite obvious, the lack of connectivity, massive unemployment, a huge disconnect with the rest of the country, no industry, AFSPA and multiple parallel "militant" governments, all of which will probably come up in the first few conversations you have with the residents. Therefore, I never understood that fact that though our previous prime minister had been elected from Assam, his government failed to act on many basic problems.

Instead, the pervious policy towards the Northeast seemed to be that of throwing funds at a rather corrupt political system, not really following up and hoping for the best. The lack of delivery has created a very real opportunity for the BJP to gain politically by doing things differently and Modi’s initial moves have seemed positive.

The number one complaint of the people in the region is that the centre does not hear their voices. In an attempt to connect the disconnected, the appointment of two Northeastern leaders one each from Assam and Arunachal Pradesh to the cabinet projects the idea that the Northeast is very much a part of the centre’s decision making and this move has gone down well with many local residents.

However, the disconnect with the region is an on ground reality as well, a reality which stems from the lack of exposure and information and results in racism and racist attacks. To combat that, Modi’s exchange schemes - 200 women police officials from Manipur serving in Gujarat, scholarships for 10,000 students from the region to study in the rest of the country as well as an scheme to facilitate exposure visits for 2000 students and 500 teachers of colleges in the region to other parts of the country each year - could prove to be small, but positive steps.

In my opinion, if we really want to bridge the gap, it is equally important that the exchange system works both ways and that students from the rest of India also travel to the Northeast to understand the region first hand. At the same time, while there has been a huge emphasis and push towards certain aspects of Indian history and Sanskrit, why not talk about the Northeast in our history and sociology classes? That would go a long way in bringing the east into the mainstream, as merely banning the use of "Chinki" will not end the mindset.  

What I do find truly interesting have been Modi’s speeches. While he did talk figures, because lets face it voters love big numbers especially when they are coming to their states, his numbers were development oriented rather than financial handouts. For the first time, the crores allotted to the region have had larger, quantifiable development purpose.

While the national average of road density per 1000 sq km is 1206, that of Arunachal, which doesn’t have an active commercial airport, is 178.9 - FYI that’s a border state, the same one China is claiming as their’s. Similarly, while the national average per capita electricity consumption is 884 kwh, Manipur, an electricity producing state, stands at 236 kwh.

So its no surprise that the government has increased this years rail budget allotted to the Northeast by 54 per cent to Rs 5116 crores bringing rail heads to different states in the region, allotted Rs 3000 cr for road construction in the region, Rs 5000 crores to improve the power systems in six of the eight states with a goal of "24X7, 365 days power supply" and Rs 28,000 cr to develop 14 new railway lines. Each fund allotment is targeting a very real infrastructure gap in the region and should in turn (if delivered) generate a lot of good will. It does look like the BJP and Mr Modi have done their homework.

But will he deliver? The centre has been working on roads in Arunachal for the last 10 years, but plagued by corruption and heavy monsoon rains, they are yet to meet 20 per cent of their targets. The same can be said about the Guwahati -Shillong road, for the last five years that I have be travelling to Shillong by road, the road has remained under construction.

With high level of educated unemployment, job creation and industrial growth were on Modi's list. Naming the Northeast a NEZ – Natural Economic Zone, the messiah stated that the region with its huge agro potential could be the organic capital of the country and to realise this potential the government is settling up six agricultural colleges in the region. He also spoke of establishing apparel-manufacturing centres in each of the eight states. That being said, to make the region an agricultural or apparel manufacturing super power, a lot of infrastructure will have to be developed namely cold storage, cross border trade centers, roads and most importantly skill sets. Skilling India is a great idea, but many of the present skill development schemes in the region have failed as the youth are not interested in taking up the programs offered – how will the centre get the state government to first gauge and then carter for the aspirations of the local youth?

However, if the central government were able to ensure that even half of this is achieved in the next five years, they would have delivered more to the region than any previous government, but there are hurdles, the biggest being the state governments themselves.

The political system in the region is rigid, riddled with corruption and has failed to deliver for decades. Getting the best out of them may prove to be a challenge. On the flip side, the Northeast has served as a punishment posting for government officials in need of reprimand - that has to change. If we want to make the Northeast the gateway to Asia, the best minds have to be deployed to get things on track.

What could also prove to be a big hurdle would be balancing the BJPs ultra nationalist ideology with aggressive tribal identities. Many states have active armed struggles and communities who are sensitive about their rights and cultural identities - this is one of the reasons why the BJP has previously failed to gain political traction in a region with a large Christian and Buddhist population. At the same time, many of the "militant groups" are in dialogue with the centre, including the Nagas who have been demanding sovereignty for over 60 years. It will be interesting to see how Naga sovereignty fits into the BJPs nationalist agenda. Also, how will the BJP handle the bandhs, extortion and parallel governments? If they do want to return the region to normalcy they will have to address these social and political issues, including a military one – AFSPA, will it stay or will to go?

Illegal immigration from Bangladesh is a huge issue in the region, something Modi has spoken on in Assam. But the issue of "outsiders" is volatile and divisive. Over the years it has resulted in violence against "legal" Muslims and non-tribal residents of the region. While taking a hard stand on "illegal immigration" will gain the BJP a lot of political mileage, the complexity of the issue may result in on ground violence, the centre will have to be careful.

The region offers the BJP a great opportunity, the youth, who are largely educated but face unemployment are sick of status quo, the pervious government has failed them and they are optimistic about the BJP. But will Modi deliver? Or will the Northeast remain India’s "step child"?