Will Sirisena Modi-fy Sri Lanka's foreign policy?
Mahinda Rajapaksa is known to be a religious man, with a special interest in astrology. But on Friday, he would have rued listening to astrologers who told him advancing elections by two years was a sure-shot way to extend his reign by six years. The grapevine in Colombo goes that `8' is Rajapaksa's lucky number which is why the election was held on January 8, 2015 (2+0+1+5 = 8). Those astrologers better run for cover now.
But to blame the astrologers for the defeat would be to pretend Rajapaksa was not at fault. The President, with his head in the clouds, clearly did not have his ear to the ground. He seemed to be oblivious to the resentment on the street against the in-the-face Rajapaksa family rule. (Two brothers are ministers, another brother the Speaker and a son an MP). All Sirisena had to do was to plug into this dislike for nepotism and he had Rajapaksa on the back foot at the electoral crease.
Maithripala Sirisena's opposition alliance may have resembled an unruly kitchen, with too many cooks threatening to spoil the broth. Disparate elements like the Sinhala-Buddhists, Tamils, Muslims stitched together the rainbow coalition with the primary purpose of defeating Rajapaksa. The clever Sirisena proved to be the benefactor of this single-minded purpose. In that sense, the verdict today is more a Rajapaksa defeat than a Sirisena victory.
The electoral arithmetic worked for Sirisena like magic. For the first time in Sri Lanka's history, the unity of the minorities - 32 per cent of the total vote - was complete. Tamils (15.3 per cent), Muslims (9.3 per cent) and Christians (7.4 per cent) delivered Rajapaksa the knockout punch.
Three, Rajapaksa did not have anything substantial to sell. Yes, he harped on how he had ensured political stability and that the economy did well under him. But Sirisena was promising more goodies and the Sri Lankan voter was in `dil maange more' mode. With his back to the wall, Rajapaksa fell back on how he ensured peace in the Island nation, ravaged by 26 years of civil war. That was accompanied by a threat that LTTE will return the moment Rajapaksa is out. In contrast, Sirisena projected a non-hardliner and non-macho image, someone who will have a `Maithri' approach - a healing touch much needed to make the minority Tamils and Muslims feel part of mainstream Sri Lanka.
While Sri Lanka's stock market climbed to its highest level in four years today, celebrating the emphatic victory, the path ahead won't be easy. The Tamils and Muslims voted in large numbers against Rajapaksa and they will now expect Sirisena to ensure their safety. Attacks on Muslims by Buddhists have been a huge concern for the minorities.
What does the verdict mean for India?
On the face of it, good news. And this is not just because parties in Tamil Nadu are rejoicing at Rajapaksa's exit. In fact, India will be committing a blunder if it looks at Indo-Sri Lanka relations through the narrow prism of Tamil Nadu. Sri Lanka is critical from a geo-political security angle and New Delhi has to constantly engage with Colombo to ensure Sri Lanka is firmly on its side.
Under Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka has cosied up to China. The docking of the Chinese nuclear submarine had irked India. But Rajapaksa did not have any other option because China had helped him militarily in the fight against the LTTE. In fact, nearly 70 per cent of Sri Lankan military hardware today is `Made in China'. This coupled with the dependence on China to build infrastructure is something India cannot ignore, given Lanka's strategic proximity.
Pakistan is another actor in the Sri Lankan theatre that India needs to look out for. The arrest of a Sri Lankan national in Chennai had confirmed the ISI activities in Lanka. His confession showed that the Pakistan High commission in Colombo was used to mount espionage in India and Indian intelligence agencies believe the route to mount terror attacks in south India is via Lanka.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to Sirisena to visit New Delhi even before he has been sworn in as President, shows India's eagerness to engage with the new man at Temple Trees, the Sri Lankan President's official residence in Colombo. India has no time to lose and needs to ensure Sri Lanka's foreign policy outlook is suitably Modi-fied.