Why Rahul Gandhi and Mehbooba Mufti should thank Governor Satya Pal Malik for dissolving J&K Assembly
Politics, as they say, is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best.
However, the attainable alliance between the Congress and two main regional parties of Jammu and Kashmir may not be the 'next best'. In fact, it could easily prove to be the worst.
A day after senior PDP leader and MP Muzaffar Hussain Baig threw his weight behind separatist-turned-mainstream leader Sajad Gani Lone for cobbling up a third front, the three major mainstream political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party, the National Conference and the Congress – on November 21 decided to join hands to form a ruling alliance in the restive state.
It was a day full of high drama in Kashmir politics. There was a new development every moment, making all sorts of 'impossibles' a reality — like NC vice-president Omar Abdullah echoing PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti's views on Twitter. Sajad Lone too managed to spring a surprise by staking a claim to form the government moments after the NC-PDP-Congress announcement.
But the day ended with disappointment to all claimants. In a sudden move, Governor Satyapal Malik dissolved the state Assembly.
Though there’s a possibility of the “aggrieved parties” moving the Supreme Court against the Governor’s decision, Congress President Rahul Gandhi and Mehbooba Mufti should actually thank the Raj Bhavan.
In the 87-member state Assembly, the PDP with the highest number of 28 seats was first to knock on the Raj Bhavan's door, backed by 15 MLAs from the NC and 12 from the Congress. So, Mufti staked claim to form government with 55 seats, as against the required number of 44.
She, however, missed to subtract a dozen-odd PDP rebel MLAs led by Imran Reza Ansari, who have already decided to support Sajad Lone as the CM, backed by the BJP with its 25 seats.
For the Congress-PDP-NC alliance, former Finance minister Altaf Bukhari and former CM and NC president Farooq Abdullah were among the frontrunners for the chair of the CM.
According to various reports, Mehbooba Mufti wanted Farooq Abdullah to lead the alliance, but the NC decided to support the PDP-Congress alliance from outside.
So, the larger consensus was on Bukhari’s prospective coronation.
Arch rivals PDP and NC claimed to have joined hands to “protect the special status” of Jammu and Kashmir.
Well, for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, both are two sides of the same coin.
The two parties recently boycotted the urban local bodies polls, arguing that staying away from power at the grassroots would help defend Article 35-A in the Supreme Court.
The sudden change of mind now suggests only one thing about the NC and the PDP — that Article 35-A was a bigger much cause than democracy at the grassroots, but inconsequential when it comes to the CM's chair.
The only one to gain in this alliance would have been the PDP, barring Mehbooba Mufti.
Thrown out of power unceremoniously by the BJP in June, the regional party had a golden opportunity to make a comeback. The alliance was supposed to serve as an antidote to any further rebellion within the party. After all, while rebel MLAs led by Imran Reza Ansari had already supported Sajad Lone, in a latest, old guard Muzaffar Hussain Baig too had hinted at joining them.
In any case, the PDP coming back to power could actually weaken the authority of Mehbooba Mufti, who has escaped previous coups in the party.
For Mufti, prospective CM Altaf Bukhari happens to be the same “bad bishop”, who was once accused of trying to dethrone the queen. And maybe this was why she wanted Farooq Abdullah to lead the alliance.
A businessman-turned-politician, Bukhari is seen as an overzealous leader whose ambitions to continue in power didn’t end, even after the collapse of the PDP-BJP alliance in June.
It had been an open secret in Kashmir that in cohorts with a local media baron and a prominent Kashmiri hotelier, Bukhari had apparently been lobbying for an alliance with the NC for the last three months and reportedly visited Dubai purportedly to seek “external support”.
As for Kashmir’s oldest regional party — the NC — the alliance was to be an external support.
Many have been wondering, if the arch rivals are okay supporting each other now, why didn’t they simply merge their parties into one strong party?
Well, not so difficult to guess.
In any case, putting its money on regional politics with a never-before alliance could may put the Congress' credibility at stake in the national arena. With the 2019 general elections round the corner, one wrong move could prove suicidal for the party – giving the BJP another chance to checkmate it.
For a national party to join hands with a regional party, whose ministers have been accused of harbouring separatist sentiments, could prove tricky because the BJP claims to have “sacrificed power” in J&K in "national interest".
Also, the new grand alliance would look more like support for Kashmiri Muslims alone.
Reasons: the three parties have their major representation in the Assembly from the Valley itself. So, what about the aspirations of non-Muslims, especially Hindus from Jammu, with BJP as the dominant party there?
A sympathy wave for the Hindus of Jammu would add to the BJP's kitty in the 2019 elections across the country – making Rahul Gandhi’s worst nightmare could come true.
Moreover, senior Congress leader and member of the party’s prestigious Working Committee, Tariq Hameed Karra, had left the PDP in 2016, mainly because of his strained relations with some leaders, especially Bukhari.
So, would Karra this time welcome Bukhari’s coronation – or revolt against the Congress high command?
As for the third front led by Sajad Lone, none of the constituents has big stakes. The BJP has already “sacrificed” power. Rebel Imran Reza Ansari, on the other hand, is understood to have never aspired for the CM's chair.
Moreover, Sajad Lone had just two seats of his own. He seemingly played the trump card to put the Raj Bhavan in a dilemma that led to the dissolution of the Assembly.
Politics, undoubtedly, is the art of compromise to make the impossible possible.
But for Rahul Gandhi and Mehbooba Mufti, coming to power in J&K could prove to be disastrous.
As for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, they seem to look 'satisfied' with Governor’s Rule. For them, the dissolving of the Assembly has only rekindled hopes for the next best.