Why Putin will make Modi sweat during his visit to India
After making his mark as a deft foreign policy driver, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin next week. Putin will be the second top-rung world leader to be received by the six-month-old Modi dispensation which managed a diplomatic coup of sorts by rolling out a red carpet welcome to Chinese President Xi Jinping, overcoming a tide of unease caused by an unsettled boundary question and anxiety over Beijing’s aggressiveness.
How Modi handles the mercurial Putin will be yet another test of his diplomatic skills. A series of developments ahead of Putin's journey to India has caused considerable discomfort in India.
Almost cocking a snook at New Delhi, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu travelled to Islamabad last month, and signed a landmark military cooperation pact allowing sale of arms and equipment to Pakistan. Shoigu was the first Russian defence minister to visit Pakistan in more than four decades.
This was not a sudden development as groundwork for opening up of military transactions between Islamabad and Moscow had started ten years ago when Pervez Musharraf had broken the ice.
Earlier this year, Russia had announced lifting of the arms embargo on Pakistan paving the way for supply of attack helicopters. Pakistan army already flies Russian Mi17 transport helicopters.
Russia had always refrained from dealing with Pakistan but as New Delhi drifted away to other countries like the US and Israel to meet its military hardware requirement, a realignment was in the offing.
Russia remains a crucial player in sustaining the Indian armed forces but the fact on the ground is that the situation is rapidly changing. The India-Russia military ties are facing the test of times. Russia is miffed that it has not won even a single new big ticket Indian military contract which have gone to the US, Israel or France. Even those projects which would ensure a long term commitment have hit the doldrums. A case in point is the ongoing negotiation for joint cooperation in developing a fifth generation fighter aircraft, or the FGFA, project. As reported by Mail Today earlier, India is deeply worried that the ambitious programme may go the same way as admiral Gorshkov, the aircraft carrier that joined the navy as INS Vikramaditya, after an agonising delay and escalated costs.
There is clearly a communication gap as the Indian side is perturbed over the way Russia has kept it on the periphery of the FGFA programme despite it being equal financial partner. Frantic efforts are underway to resurrect the FGFA programme but it underlines the growing fissures between the two sides. However, when Putin comes calling, defence talks will occupy a small portion on his plate. The real talks may resume when the Russian defence minister makes a trip to India next month.