Why BJP doesn't want Varun Gandhi to be its CM face in UP

In the coming weeks, the BJP is likely to announce its chief ministerial candidate for Uttar Pradesh, which goes to polls early 2017. Emboldened by the success in Assam, where the party had declared Sarbananda Sonowal as the CM candidate much in advance, and its ideological parent - the RSS - which wants it to project a face already, the BJP may reach its decision quite early on. It wants to settle for someone reliable yet charismatic to lead the mother of all state polls. The issue will surely be discussed and a decision may also be taken in this regard during the forthcoming national executive committee meeting to be held in Allahabad on June 12 and 13.

But the question is, who that face will be?

According to several reports, a number of surveys conducted in the recent times by different agencies have projected BJP Lok Sabha MP from Sultanpur, Varun Gandhi, as the most popular candidate for the UP campaign.

Varun's strengths

1. He is considered to be popular among the cadres. Hence, he can mobilise the workers.

2. He carries a Gandhi surname and, therefore, he can take on his cousin and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.

3. He is young. He turned 36 on March 13. At 33, he was the youngest to become the BJP's general secretary. His youth can be pitted against the "young" UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, who will be 43 on July 1.

4. His mother Maneka Gandhi is the Union women and child development minister, giving the party an edge as far as their popularity and outreach go.

5. He is considered close to the RSS. He keeps visiting the Sangh headquarters in Nagpur to meet the senior leaders. Hence, the cadre would also back him with full force.

However, some of his strongest suits are equally Varun's Achilles' heel.

Varun's weaknesses

1. "Gandhi" surname is not a popular brand anymore. Its stock is surely down. Hence, pitting a Gandhi against a Gandhi is no more a valuable proposition, nor a thrilling spectacle.

2. His mother's position at the Centre will go against him because the BJP would not promote two persons from the same family. Veteran leader Yashwant Sinha was rested and his son Jayant Sinha was given the ticket and, after he won, was made the Union minister of state for finance. Similarly, Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje's son Dushyant Singh was not given a ministerial berth at the Centre due to the same criterion.

3. Though Varun tries to keep the senior RSS leaders in good humour, he does not accord much importance to the local leaders in his state. As a result, the local leaders are not very favourably disposed towards him. And this will certainly go against him.

4. The BJP's Nehru-Gandhi scion has taken a sharp leftward ideological turn. From being a Hindutva poster boy in his first Lok Sabha election from Pilibhit in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, he has taken a left-of-the-centre stand. This is being considered as a sign of inconsistency.

5. Varun carries the general impression of not being very cordial with fellow party leaders. Leaders generally avoid getting in touch with him because of his behavioural issues.

6. The most important hurdle in his way to become the face of the BJP's face in the upcoming Assembly elections is the trust deficit between him and party president Amit Shah. He is neither in the good books of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Shah removed Varun from the post of national general secretary. As party in charge of West Bengal during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Varun had embarrassed the BJP by saying that there were about 50,000 people in one of Modi's public rallies. He contradicted the party's stand which stated that more than two lakhs had turned up to hear the prime ministerial candidate.

The BJP has other leaders who who are more experienced and suitable to be the party's CM face. The frontrunners among them being Union HRD minister Smriti Irani, Union home minister Rajnath Singh, Union tourism minister Mahesh Sharma, Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath, Union water resources minister Uma Bharati and party's state president Keshav Prasad Maurya. Hence, Varun's chances of being projected as the party's CM candidate is the dimmest.