Rajdeep Sardesai on why winning UP could lend Modi momentum for 2019

Rajdeep Sardesai, senior journalist and consulting editor with India Today, has spent a considerable amount of time reporting from ground zero, aka, Uttar Pradesh that will hold his seventh land last phase of Assembly polls on March 8. Earlier, in his column, he said that he thinks the BJP would the UP 2017 contest, and did a Facebook Live Q&A to discuss the many queries he had been inundated with.

Once again, as the campaign for UP ended today, Sardesai did another Facebook Live to discuss the implications of the last leg of the UP campaign which saw PM Narendra Modi playing an aggressive role.

The chief points made by Sardesai are as follows.

1) Sardesai began by saying that the seven-phase UP Assembly polls was perhaps six or five too many. He compared it with the one-day presidential elections held in the United States, which has a  comparable population to India’s most populous state – UP – which has the largest number of Assembly seats at 403. Since the middle of January this year, the UP campaign has been on, but really the elections have been the biggest factor in the months leading up to February-March 2017.

Should elections be shorter affairs in Uttar Pradesh? Sardesai posed this question, which is thought-provoking indeed.

However, Sardesai said that Indians like everything long-winded, whether they are Bollywood movies, or cricket matches (not weddings, Mr Sardesai?) and likewise even the elections tend to be protracted and long-drawn. But Indians may be fatigued, but no one’s complaining, particularly the media, which has been feasting on the UP elections campaigns, rallies and other affiliated rabble-rousing by political figureheads almost incessantly.

2) Secondly, Sardesai reflected on PM Modi’s aggressive campaign in Varanasi in the last three days of the UP elections. What prompted the PM to devote so much energy in just one city? Obviously, Varanasi is the PM’s parliamentary constituency and that way makes for his home turf, but could it also be a sign of desperation?

Is PM Modi worried that an assembly seat that the BJP has held on to since 1989 could slip away this time around? Is he ensuring that it doesn’t? Could it be that BJP shores up numbers in the rest of the state but loses Varanasi?

In the 403-seat UP, Modi spending three long days in Varanasi makes for mixed optics. But then, as Sardesai says, the PM is a “hungry, 24X7 politician”, whose mantra is dil maange more, electorally.

But this leaves open the question if BJP is really as confident as it portrays itself to be. Does Modi simply want to galvanise cadres, win more support? Or is he sewing up the holes in the BJP’s electoral fabric?

Though one thing is clear for Sardesai. Winning UP 2017 would give PM Modi the momentum he needs to influence Lok Sabha 2019 elections. Significantly.

3) Thirdly, Sardesai explains his prediction parameters, which are mostly number-based. BJP got 42 per cent vote share in 2014 elections and even if they go down by a few percentage points, they could still get enough to score a decent victory. Moreover, Sardesai said that he had not observed any adverse impact – political and social – of demonetisation. Even the trader community, Sardesai said, was admitting that though business was bad, they were willing to accept it for Modiji. They trust the PM, it seemed, for Sardesai.

4) Fourthly, Sardesai reflected on the BSP and SP-Congress alliance, and said both are relying on traditional votebanks. While Mayawati is banking on her Dalit vote base, SP-Congress are relying on Yadav-Muslim combine.

But what about the upper castes, the non-Yadav OBCs, and those not traditionally targeted by the SP-Congress or BSP political camps? Looks like they going en bloc to BJP this time.

5) Nevertheless, Sardesai said, that Mayawati has an X-factor, which is not adequately covered or anticipated by the media. She gets eclipsed in media coverage, which is always dominated by Modi, or Rahul-Akhilesh bonhomie.

But does Mayawati still retain a hold on UP politics. Despite her old-fashioned identity politics, does she have anything for the “post-caste” aspirational India? Are her best days behind her?

6) Finally, Sardesai said despite his analysis and halting prediction, this election is too close to call. SP-Congress alliance is formidable, and whoever crosses 200 will be the game changer. But who will it be?

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