If BJP wins UP election, this is what will happen

In my last article I wrote about how the UP election results could be a shocker for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

But what if the BJP wins Uttar Pradesh? How such a scenario would impact national politics? How would it impact major political parties in the state and at the national level, including the BJP?

These are important questions. Here is my attempt to answer these questions focusing on every important stakeholder individually.

BJP/RSS/Modi

If the BJP is able to form the government in UP on its own steam, it will send the personal profile of Modi within the party crashing through the roof. He will become the most powerful political leader ever produced by any Indian party, surpassing iconic Congress leaders Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi.

This means that all other BJP leaders in the party and the government will be reduced to minions, if they haven't been already. Party veterans like LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, who are already languishing in the inane "margadarshak mandal" but still harbouring hopes of political windfall, will then formally become the demonetised currency notes of 1,000 and 500.

In the event of BJP winning UP, Modi the prime minister will become Modi the emperor and he will rule the party as well the government with an iron hand through his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah who will emerge as the strongest BJP president ever.

Modi will choose his own men and women for contesting all Assembly elections in the next two years as well as the general elections in 2019. But before that, in the immediate future he will have his own candidates installed as president and vice-president of the country.

He will also take on chief ministers of BJP-ruled states who can be potential threats to his own leadership - Madhya Pradesh's Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje. Last, but not the least, Modi's UP win will ensure that the BJP'S haloed ideological boss the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) becomes a paper tiger and his dominance over not just the BJP and RSS but also the entire Sangh Parivaar is complete.

However, while one considers what all may happen to Modi and the BJP in the event of the BJP coming to power in UP, it is extremely doubtful if the Modi era in the BJP would be over if the converse were to happen. For this to happen, Modi's BJP will have to perform extremely poorly which is unlikely.

Congress

Modi's UP win will be like getting hit by a meteorite for the Grand Old Party which expected a meteoric rise in its political fortunes in these elections, particularly UP where it agreed to play second fiddle to the Samajwadi Party, swallowing its pride.

It will undoubtedly be a huge personal setback to Congress crown prince Rahul Gandhi if Modi were to win the state.

Rahul has made huge political investment for long and even in the last UP Assembly elections he tried his best to revive the party. In a way, Rahul has already conceded defeat of sorts in this election by accepting 105 seats in the 403-member Assembly and agreeing to be the junior partner of the SP, just as the Congress has played second fiddle to regional parties like the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar in 2015.

But if even after its pre-poll alliance with the SP in UP the Congress were to perform poorly and sit out in the opposition along with the SP, it will severely dent Rahul's chances of becoming the supreme leader of the Congress.

Such an eventuality may well trigger an outcry within the Congress to have a new leadership and would inevitably strengthen the "bring Priyanka" campaign within the Congress.

Such a result would also severely constrict Congress chances of attracting allies as the party would inevitably get the tag of a useless poll partner by other regional satraps.

Samajwadi Party

The SP will be the least hit among all stakeholders in UP in case of a Modi win in UP. Yes, it will lose face but it won't mean the end of the road for Akhilesh Yadav who has firmly established himself as the new boss of the party and as the political heir to his father Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Establishing himself as the supreme ruler of the SP, Akhilesh has already emerged as a winner, irrespective of the election outcome. A win for the SP-Congress combine will be a bonus as he has already won the prize of becoming the go-to leader for his party.

Age is by his side and the 43-year-old Akhilesh can comfortably prepare himself for the next election in 2022. So, all won't be lost for Akhilesh and the SP if the BJP wins UP.

Bahujan Samaj Party

Mayawati and her party, the BSP, are going to be the worst sufferers in the scenario of the BJP winning UP. It's a do-or-die battle for Mayawati and the BSP. It will be curtains for her if she were to perform poorly in these elections, particularly after her party scored a zero in the 2014 general elections.

Mayawati can stand a chance in state and national politics only if she bats out of her skin in the UP test. If she wins around 100 seats or thereabouts she can still be a game-changer, and perhaps a king-maker too. However, the chances are that she would perform well and may also emerge as a dark horse.

In conclusion, one can say that the UP elections are going to be the "khul ja sim sim" code for whichever party that successfully enters the Alibaba cave. It will inevitably impact the national polity big time.

An important factor in determining the victor and the vanquished will be who gets how much of the seat share in the 403-seat Assembly on March 11. Watch this space!

Also read: Why Vajpayee would be disappointed with Modi