Uttar Pradesh by-polls: Why winning Phulpur is a bigger challenge for both BJP and Opposition
The Lok Sabha constituencies of Gorakhpur and Phulpur, where by-polls will be held on March 11, have become a major challenge for the ruling BJP as well as the Opposition in Uttar Pradesh. But the stakes for the ruling dispensation are surely higher in Phulpur.
The BJP, which seemed to have taken its victory on both the seats for granted, began to pull up its socks no sooner than BSP supremo Mayawati declared her decision to support the Samajwadi Party on the two seats.
Since the BSP, as a rule, does not believe in contesting any by-election, it was anyway not in the race. But the party’s most unexpected decision to support its sworn political adversary in the by-poll has compelled the BJP to give up its complacence and get down to brass tacks.
Even though the alliance was struck rather late in the day, when barely eight days were left for polling, there's still much exuberance visible in both the SP as well the BSP camps. And that is what seems to have spurred the BJP not only in Phulpur, where the party was never on a strong footing, but also in Gorakhpur, the political bastion of chief minister Yogi Adityanath.
Yogi had held the seat for five consecutive terms until he stepped down in 2017 to acquire membership of the state legislature after being installed as chief minister. Prior to that also, the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat was with Yogi Adityanath’s "guru" and political mentor Mahant Avaidyanath for three terms.
However, that was not the case with Phulpur, widely known as Jawaharlal Nehru’s constituency and a traditional Congress stronghold, from where the BJP’s first–timer Keshav Prasad Maurya romped home with the help of the Modi wave in 2014. The seat fell vacant following his elevation as deputy chief minister, followed by his nomination to the upper house of state legislature.
Even though Maurya had won the Lok Sabha seat in 2014 with a massive margin of three lakh votes, his nominee Kaushlendra Singh Patel, may not sail through with the same ease now. What came as an indirect support for him was jailed mafia don-turned-politician Atiq Ahmed (independent candidate) joining the fray. Ahmed is bound to dig into a chunk of the Muslim votes and thereby weaken the strength of the Samajwadi Party candidate Nagendra Patel. It was no surprise that the Opposition was openly terming Atiq as BJP’s “plant”.
While the BSP’s support to the SP came as a shot in the arm for the anti-BJP lobby, what is being doubted is the effectiveness of the alliance due to the delay. Even a senior SP leader wondered: "How is it going to be possible for us to get all the benefits of the BSP vote bank in such a short time?" A BSP coordinator, however, claims, “Behen Mayawatiji took a decision to extend our party’s full support to the strongest candidate against communal forces. We have, therefore, ensured that our party’s supporters go and cast their vote for the SP nominee, since he is seen as the strongest candidate against the BJP.”
If the BSP’s vote bank actually gets transferred to the SP, it could make a world of difference as there are about 3.5 lakh Dalit votes in Phulpur. Besides, the constituency has nearly three lakh Muslim voters. The SP had chosen a Patel against the BJP’s Patel nominee in a constituency with about two lakh Patel voters, but even an equal division of this community’s vote may not make as much difference as the votes of other communities.
What could seriously dent the SP’s prospects was the division of the Muslim vote into three parties - the SP, the Congress and independent Atiq Ahmed. But the SP hopes to recover that loss from the unflinching support of more than one lakh Yadav voters.
Ideally, the Congress could have kept out of the fray if its objective was to actually keep the BJP at bay. However, Congress spokesman Surendra Rajput argues, "Had we allowed it to be a united fight against the BJP, then the BJP would have played the Hindutva card to polarise the votes."
The fact of the matter is that Congress nominee Manish Misra was not even capable of winning over local Brahmins, although this upper caste community with some one lakh votes was perceived to be somewhat disillusioned with the BJP.
Some senior leaders of the ruling dispensation, including state BJP president Mahendra Pandey, were busy trying to woo the Brahmins in Phulpur. However, BJP’s major focus was on tapping the larger chunk of the backward castes.
Maurya, who is BJP's OBC face in Uttar Pradesh, has only one lakh backward caste voters in the region. He has, however, thrived on the claim that he got the entire backward community to rally behind the BJP across the length and breadth of the state in 2017, when, under his leadership, the party created an all-time record of winning 324 seats in a 403-member state Assembly. Maurya even staked claim to the top job in Uttar Pradesh and has been quite chagrined ever since Yogi Adityanath wangled the position.
Today, his own prestige is as much at stake as Yogi Adityanath’s , whose Gorakhpur is also faced with a similar challenge of a nearly united opposition. But surely Maurya’s stakes are much higher than that of Yogi, who is on a far more deeper roots in his constituency. No wonder, therefore, Maurya was leaving no stone unturned to ensure his nominee’s victory at all costs.