So what is the big takeaway from Trump-Kim summit?
The last time India looked closely at the Korean Peninsula was back in the 1990s when clandestine transfers of North Korean rocket technology allowed Pakistan to build missiles targeting all of India with its nuclear weapons. Korean missile technology was bartered for Pakistani uranium enrichment knowhow, used to build North Korea’s bombs. The transfer was allegedly facilitated by notorious nuclear black marketeer Dr AQ Khan.
This week, the attention of the world, and indeed that of India, was on the landmark summit between United States President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un in Singapore.
Just last September, Trump called Kim Jong-un "Little Rocket Man" and threatened to "totally destroy North Korea" after it acquired thermonuclear bombs and the intercontinental range ballistic missiles to lob them at the US. Kim called Trump "a mentally challenged US dotard". They were actually threatening nuclear war on each other’s countries. Just nine months later, in a stunning turnaround, the foulmouthing stopped and they were at the negotiating table.
While it’s too early to pronounce Mission Accomplished, the Singapore summit is a big deal for the American president. On the face of it, he appears to have put the Korean peninsula, one of the world’s riskiest nuclear flashpoints, on a trajectory towards denuclearisation. All this without firing a single shot. India would welcome a Korean settlement as it sees the need for a rule-based nuclear order, which would prevent every dictator from violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and acquiring nuclear weapons.
President Trump, one of the most temperamental US heads of state, has been on our cover twice — first, when he won the US presidential election ("Demolition Man", November 2016) and then a few months after he took over the presidency ("How to Deal With Trump", March 2017). He is out to change the world order in trade and alliances in line with his myopic view of "America First and to hell with the rest".
Before his Korean coup, he had just kicked his closest allies, the G-7 group, in the teeth by not signing the joint communique. Now emboldened with what he regards as his grand success, he’s likely to take other foreign policy initiatives. It’s a good distraction from the Mueller investigation he’s embroiled in at home. The historic North Korean summit has other consequences which go beyond the Korean peninsula. That is why Trump and Kim are on our cover this week.
Our cover story, put together by Group Editorial Director Raj Chengappa with inputs from our Beijing correspondent Ananth Krishnan and executive editor Sandeep Unnithan, looks at the areas of possible divergences between India and the US post the Singapore summit. How Trump’s post-Korean deal stance will play out on his pet peeves like high tariffs on US goods being imported into India will be interesting to watch. There are newer uncertainties like the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) that could target India for buying arms from its traditional military supplier, Russia. US waivers to this Act could leave powerful levers with Washington to constrict New Delhi’s strategic autonomy.
Trump has downplayed his earlier campaign speech statement about wanting to mediate between India and Pakistan. But now he may feel encouraged to get involved in brokering a deal on Kashmir as he pushes Pakistan hard on what the US wants in Afghanistan — the longest war in American history and one where it has invested heavily in men and materiel. He could also offer Pakistan a similar deal to what the US offered India, but with stringent safeguards and a gradual process of denuclearisation. Also, smelling success in Korea, he may turn rough with Iran — India’s third largest oil supplier — over its nuclear programme.
In short, Trump is shaking international relations like few US presidents have done before. That’s why Prime Minister Narendra Modi moved swiftly to re-emphasise ties with China and Russia through quick informal summits with President Xi Jinping in Wuhan and President Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
The big takeaway from Trump’s Korean summit is the fact that there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. If the Korean Peninsula is talking about peace and denuclearisation, then surely the Indian subcontinent should do so too. Enemies don’t have to be enemies forever.
(India Today Editor-in-Chief's note for cover story, US & N Korea: Trump's Big Deal ...and what it means for India; June 25, 2018.)