Why BJP has a clear lead in UP polls 2017

Ground reports from the first phase of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, where 73 constituencies went to the polls on February 11, suggest that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not only in fight on most of the seats but better placed than both of its opponents — Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Though the lead for BJP surely isn't as huge as it was in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it might just be enough to win majority of the seats in this phase.

The first phase of the elections is crucial because it will affect not only the Muslim voting trends, but also the fence sitters in subsequent phases.

In the absence of a single emotive issue, the agenda in this high-stakes elections is visibly a socio-political conundrum.

While on one hand it is development, law and order and employment, on the other, conventional identity politics still rules the roost. Added to these, candidate selection and local dynamics are impacting the elections as a result of constituency-level micro affairs as well as a pan-UP macro phenomenon.

Ground reports suggest that Mayawati's BSP might do better than expected. While the gamble rests on 97 tickets to Muslims, some of its Brahmin candidates like Ramveer Upadhyay in Sadabad, Shyam Sundar Sharma from Maant and Madhusudan Sharma from Baah appear invincible.

Mayawati has clearly been able to keep her flock together and append the numbers with candidate castes.

The SP-Congress alliance, which had initially benefited from the sympathy Akhilesh Yadav gained during his feud with father Mulayam and uncle Shivpal, hasn't been able to keep pace with either the BJP or the BSP.

The "development image" of Akhilesh, which the alliance was banking on, appears insufficient, at least in Western UP, because of the hasty candidate selection and poor campaigning.

From the reports trickling in, the non-Yadav rural vote for SP seems to have shrunk considerably in Western UP.

In many pockets, SP's footprints have become virtually non-existent.

The highlight of these elections, however, might be an overwhelming consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs in favour of BJP.

In a throwback to Govindacharya's social-engineering efforts in the early '90s, which ensured a formidable BJP under Kalyan Singh's leadership, 2017 may well see a similar wave.

The consolidation of Kurmi, Kashyap, Saini, Baghel, Nishadh, Mallah, Kewat, Lodh Rajput, Shakyas, Mauryas and Rajbhars in favour of BJP promises to be sweeping.

The ascendancy of Keshav Prasad Maurya as state BJP President, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's OBC status and a large number of party tickets to members from these castes has fortified the mobilisation.

Together with its upper caste base, the consolidation appears enough for BJP to tilt the balance in its favour.

As for Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), despite Ajit Singh's fervent pleas in the name of Chaudhary Charan Singh's legacy and his "betrayal by Modi" rhetoric, Jats have remained divided in their voting preference.

While a number of them have gone back to RLD, the youth was seen firmly backing the BJP.

The Jat vote might not be as one-sided as in 2014, but the shift isn't enough for RLD to even reach its tally of 9 MLAs, which it managed last Assembly.

There have been attempts to forge a Jat-Muslim alliance, but its success remains dubitable to even hardcore Ajit supporters. Apart from winning half a dozen seats at most, RLD may prove to be a spoiler for BJP in another half a dozen constituencies.

Contrary to media reports in the last one month, Jat enthusiasm for RLD seems to have been limited to Mathura and Aligarh districts.

In Muzaffanagar, Baghpat, Bijnore and Meerut where various Jat khaps had gathered in support of the Party, the response has been less than enthusiastic.

Whatever losses BJP may incur due to the Jat desertion, it hopes to make up owing to the division of Muslim votes in Western UP. In addition to many urban and suburban constituencies like Meerut South, Agra South, Firozabad, Aligarh city, Bulandshahar, Loni, Najibabad and Sardhana where both SP and BSP have fielded strong Muslim candidates, minority candidates from RLD are in the fray in Than Bhavan, Moradabad and Sambhal.

The trend is expected to continue in subsequent phases too.

In terms of strategy, Mayawati's hands-down approach and Amit Shah's meticulously-planned social engineering have evidently trounced the SP-Congress alliance's high-decibel media campaign in, at least, the first phase.

This, however, is only the beginning of a schedule drawn over three weeks and a geographic spread wider than any other state and it will be early days to forecast a clear winner.

BJP, nevertheless, has a lead at the moment.