Is Prashant Kishor strategy for Congress in UP coming undone?

Former Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit, and the subject of frenzied media speculation on her role as proposed CM for Uttar Pradesh, is busy writing two books in her beautifully appointed study. One is an autobiography and the other a pictorial coffee table channeling her passion for Delhi.

Does this seem like the routine of a potential chief minister in the mother of electoral battles - the "dangal" that is the battle for Uttar Pradesh next year?

Not really. But, this is the result when the country's oldest political party outsources its decision making to an "ideology agnostic" strategist - Prashant Kishor - who is currently having a rather rocky run in the Congress party.

According to well-placed sources, while no one from the Gandhi family has asked Dikshit, both Kishor and Ghulam Nabi Azad, who is now in charge of Uttar Pradesh, have had meetings with her. Dikshit is believed to have shown her disinclination by saying "she is being drafted when it is too late".

"She would have been an obvious fit but why didn't they realise it two years ago? She would have immediately started work and hit the ground running. Now at her age (Dikshit is 78) how can she possibly campaign 24/7? Take on Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav?" said an aide close to the former Delhi CM.

The "it's too late" message was a polite snub from a less-than-willing candidate. Dikshit will still do it if forced by Sonia Gandhi, but is a reluctant candidate really the panacea?

Kishor, fresh off his victorious campaign for Bihar, was appointed by Rahul Gandhi to manage the Congress' campaigns in poll-bound Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.

The brain behind the "Priyanka Lao, Congress Bachao" campaign, Kishor was forced to publicly clarify that Rahul Gandhi was not a contender for UP after blazing headlines and general scoffing from the Opposition, who said he had "downsized Gandhi from wannabe CM to PM".

As I wrote about it in DailyO, Priyanka Gandhi and her husband Robert Vadra will formally join politics, but only at a time when they decide. Headlines that she will be the UP CM face have upset the couple enormously.

The decision to appoint Raj Babbar as UPCC chief was taken entirely by the Congress top brass, including Priyanka and Ghulam Nabi Azad. It was announced after an hour-long meeting between Priyanka and Azad; Kishor was nowhere to be seen.

Raj Babbar, who is a five-term MP - thrice in the Lok Sabha and twice in the Rajya Sabha - and who defeated Dimple Yadav, was chosen despite Kishor's insistence on a Brahmin face. In theory, Kishor is right - Brahmins are a sizeable vote bank in UP and feel neglected. But as party insiders point out, UP would be the fifth largest "country" in the world in terms of size. Within the state, the Congress party has not existed on the ground for more than 20 years.

It has no cadre left, party offices have been encroached upon and turned in to tea shops, and the organisation does not exist anywhere apart from traditional strongholds Amethi and Rai Bareilly.

To turn this around would be a daunting task.

After Mayawati snubbed the Congress's bid for an alliance, her closest aide, Satish Misra, took a dig at Kishor: "We don't need a strategist to tell us that the Brahmins are important in UP". Mayawati has decided on candidates for nearly all seats.

Unfortunately, Kishor's style of ambush has upset the Congress top brass. An irate Amarinder Singh threw a Patiala-sized fit and denounced Kishor publicly by sending out this statement: "Setting aside the speculation raised in the reports in a section of media suggesting that IPAC (Kishor's consultancy) will be involved with the screening and selection process of the party candidates, the PCC president made it categorically clear that IPAC has no role in the process and it has only an advisory role limited to strategy."

He went on to say, "Party administration, management and implementation of the party programme and strategy has been and will also remain the sole prerogative of the Punjab PCC."

As the Punjab Congress chief sent out the humongous public snub, Kishor who has frequent meetings with Rahul Gandhi at the Italian Culture Centre cafe must have reeled.

His "Coffee with Captain" was Kishor's brainchild along the lines of the strategist's earlier successful Modi's "Chai pe Charcha". Captain Singh was angry that his strategist was appearing to overshadow the party and the candidate.

Kishor has had an excellent run, but analysts point out that his projection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a presidential-style campaign, which built shock and awe complete with three dimensional projections, was exciting because it was fresh.

In the case of Nitish Kumari's Bihar, which Kishor moved over to after his famous fallout with BJP chief Amit Shah, the Opposition was united and, more critically, Lalu Yadav managed more seats than the CM despite the master strategist.

A senior minister in Bihar said, "Whenever the entire Opposition gets together, the BJP loses. It's a fact. What is the strategy in this?"

Even in UP, if the Opposition allies for a Bihar-style mahagathbandhan, it will be a Herculean task for the BJP - the chief reason why Amit Shah is cleverly operating in tandem with Mulayam Singh Yadav. In the last general election, Amit Shah had famously insisted that Kishor not run the UP campaign and given tickets to sadhus and sadhvis.

The result? A record 72 seats.

This time around, Shah is facing troubles within the BJP as several leaders lobby to be the proposed CM, but the Congress, even before the elections, seems like a spent force.

While strategists are in fashion, it's pointless to mimic Don Quixote and tilt at the UP windmill as the Congress party is doing.

"We should be looking at Gujarat where the CM is unpopular and the state is ripe for the taking. The Gandhis need to focus on that. It would be quite a feat for Rahul Gandhi if he manages to wrest Modi's home from him," suggests a senior Congress leader.

It might even end Rahul Gandhi's dismal track record. But, for the moment, the heir and his party are in thrall to Kishor and routine speculation in the media. Will it be a substitute for seats? No. But it keeps the party in the headlines.