Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to go without BJP in 2019 general elections will be disastrous
Uddhav Thackeray was searching for a “villain” he could blame for the Shiv Sena’s decision to go solo in the next Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. He found one in the form of BJP national president Amit Shah. Thackeray claims that Shah sidelined the other constituents of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) while setting a target of 380 seats for the next Lok Sabha election.
“Why the astonishment over Shiv Sena’s stand to go solo in the elections?” Thackeray asked in party mouthpiece Saamana on January 24.
Thackeray compares the Shiv Sena with the army of Maratha emperor Chhatrapati Shivaji: “The Maratha warrior didn’t worry about the vast empires of the Muslim rulers, their unlimited sources of wealth even though he himself didn’t have enough money to pay his army men.” However, it seems he has not taken lessons from Shivaji’s guerrilla war tactics.
True to his impulsive nature, Thackeray has revealed his strategy much before the country can go into the election mode. He has given the BJP ample time to formulate its strategy ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election without his party’s support. Interestingly, it was the BJP that had kept Thackeray in the dark about the future of their alliance when the former had unilaterally announced a break up two days before the nomination for Assembly polls began in September 2014. “A mature leader never lets his rivals know his strategy much in advance. Uddhavji should have waited for some time,” says a Shiv Sena leader.
Voters will not trust Thackeray’s intention to take on the BJP until he proves his credibility by quitting the coalition government. His criticism regarding the government’s failure on issues like loan waiver to farmers will not carry weight till he remains a key player of the government. The Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have begun chiding him for sticking to power rather than dismantling the alliance.
Traditionally, the Thackerays are not known to be open-hearted. Shiv Sena workers are not sure whether they will get monetary support from the party for their work during elections. Around six months ago, the Shiv Sena had fielded Tanaji Sawant, a wealthy Mumbai-based businessman, in the Legislative Council elections from the faraway Yavatmal constituency, declining loyal but poor workers the opportunity to contest polls.
Sawant secured a comfortable victory that upset party loyalists. Bring this into the equation, and it is highly possible Thackeray will choose candidates with money instead of those who have been toiling for the party for many years.
Ordinary Shiv Sena workers have gone into political hibernation since Thackeray joined the Devendra Fadnavis-led government in December 2014. The chief does not have any programme to infuse enthusiasm into them. The moment any Shiv Sena worker expresses his dissent over the functioning of the government, a patent question is thrown at him: why is he complaining if he is a part of the government? The Shiv Sainiks have been caught in a Catch-22 situation. They feel they are in the government but the BJP has ensured that they do not get any benefit of the power.
Thackeray will have to come up with a detailed roadmap to revive the party — at present, he does not have any.
Thackeray has announced that Shiv Sena will contest elections in every state on the Hindutva plank. The ground reality, however, paints no rosy picture. In Maharashtra, north Indians and Gujaratis will vote for the BJP on the Hindutva plank as the Shiv Sena has time and again taken a hard stand against these communities.
For north Indians, UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath is a bigger Hindutva icon than Thackeray. The Gujaratis do not consider anyone Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s equal — he remains the biggest Hindutva idol. The Marathi-speaking voters, on the other hand, will rally behind the Shiv Sena as they are divided in other parties — BJP, Congress and the NCP.
It is important to note that Hindutva supporters disapprove of Thackeray’s growing closeness with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee whom they consider anti-Hindutva owing to her politics of appeasement.
The Shiv Sena is not a dominant force outside the Konkan and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra. In Mumbai, it will have a close contest with the BJP should the two parties fight the polls separately.
Thackeray has failed to take Shiv Sena to new heights in western Maharashtra, north Maharashtra and Vidarbha, the regions where half of the Assembly seats are consolidated.
Uddhav’s decision to go solo in the election is certainly aimed at energising depressed Shiv Sena workers, but it will not get him sweeping power. Who will he blame then?