How TTV Dinakaran beat the odds to win by-poll in Jayalalithaa's constituency
If someone told us a month back that TTV Dinakaran (TTV), without a party or party symbol, will win a resounding victory in the RK Nagar by-poll, chances are that we would have laughed our guts out.
Everyone expected the results to go in favour of the DMK with the AIADMK taking the second spot. What changed the game in favour of TTV then?
Let's first talk about the money factor. Yes, the TTV camp is accused of distributing large sums of money in lieu of votes. The ruling party is also accused of the same. Some minor accusations came up against the DMK too but nothing as substantial as TTV and AIADMK.
Is money the only determining criteria? Definitely not. We would be naïve to believe that the voters, who accept money from candidates, would be inclined to vote out of gratefulness. After all, voters are known to accept money from several camps at the same time. They take the cash and eventually vote for whoever they want to elect. If we were to look at the issue from a different perspective, the TTV camp was on the radar of the state and central governments when it came to money distribution. The Election Commission too was extra vigilant. All this did make it difficult for them to lure voters.
The second most important factor, which is being undermined, is the release of Jayalalithaa's hospital clipping. It does not matter if the video was real or fake or whether it was new or old. What matters is TTV's claim that he and his aunt took care of Amma during her ailment was validated a day before voting.
People who loved the party only because of Amma and looked at the TTV-Sasikala camp as villains began to think again on the culpability of the latter. TTV's camp owning up to the release of the video worked in his favour as people could consider giving him a clean chit now.
Third, TTV's courage in the face of mounting hostility is one of the most important factors. Numerous raids were carried out against TTV's associates and also against him. He was also charged with attempting to bribe Election Commission officials for the party symbol. However, what started as an attempt to paint him as the villain slowly but steadily turned the tide in his favour.
We live in an age where anti-heroes are in vogue. He became the "bad" guy who was repeatedly targeted by people considered worse. He became a victim of politics playing out at different levels. There is no doubt that he is perceived as a corrupt leader by the people. Their problem is that he has been the only person to be targeted while no action has been taken against say Vijayabhasker or Shekhar Reddy, who belong to the EPS-
OPS camp? The general distaste the people had for the central government thanks to controversies and mismanagement on issues such as NEET, cyclone Ochki, Methane plants etc turned to votes for TTV.
Fourth, the EPS-OPS faction had apparent fissures. The delay in announcing E Madhusudhanan, who belonged to the OPS camp, as the AIADMK candidate hurt his chances hard. The EPS camp did not seem happy with his candidature. All they had to do was not to work hard enough for his victory. His failure in the election would help the EPS camp assert supremacy in the party as the OPS faction does not enjoy the same mass support as the former. This infighting too helped TTV.
Finally, Narendra Modi meeting DMK patriarch, M Karunanidhi, and the people's belief that the 2G scam accused were indeed guilty despite their acquittal did not help the DMK. People saw both developments as the DMK joining hands with the BJP.
That the BJP is not liked by the people of Tamil Nadu is evident from the fact that NOTA got more votes than the party candidate. The hatred for the ruling AIADMK stems from their being viewed as puppet in BJP's hands. With DMK pulling the same stunt as AIADMK, TTV was seen as the only leader to stand up against the central government.
All these factors worked in favour of TTV Dinakaran. He worked well to make the best of the turn of events and earned this victory. Where this takes him and the state is something we need to wait and watch.