What will they talk about when Modi and Trump meet later this month?
Their respective elections – separated in time by two-and-a-half years – might have spawned political re-evaluations in their countries, but United States president Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be meeting each other for the very first time on June 26 this year, official announcements say. The first in-person bilateral meet will take place in less than two weeks from now, in Washington DC, as PM Modi makes an official visit upon the invitation of President Trump himself.
Though both Modi and Trump have ridden respective nationalist waves to rise to power, and Trump’s “America First” has echoes in similar catchphrases of Modi, their first one-on-one meeting comes in the wake of a number of controversial moves from the US president. The topmost in the list of widely panned initiatives from the current White House administration include the H-1B visa restrictions and the US walkout from the Paris Climate Accord, both of which affect India immensely.
Trump even singled out India and talked about “billions and billions of dollars in aid” while accusing New Delhi (and Beijing) of being the biggest polluters, as he pulled the US out of the mammoth climate deal, one of the finest achievements of his predecessor Barack Obama. This was of course debunked by external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj when she said that all of India’s green initiatives are either self-funded or joint ventures, and have nothing to do with foreign aid.
While Trump and Modi have had telephonic conversations a number of times, as White House press secretary Sean Spicer says, the two leaders have a number of issues to cooperate in, chiefly combatting global terrorism, the question of Pakistan, work visas especially the H-1B and other immigration concerns from India, race-related hate crimes against Indians, nuclear energy cooperation, defence tie-ups and deals, trade as well as climate change.
Spicer echoed the official line when he said: “You can expect the two of them to set forth a vision that will expand the US-India partnership in an ambitious and worthy way. President Trump and Prime Minister Modi will look to outline a common vision for the US-India partnership that is worthy of their (combined) 1.6 billion citizens.”
Similarly, the external affairs ministry in New Delhi on Monday said: “Their (Modi and Trump's) discussions will provide a new direction for deeper bilateral engagement on issues of mutual interest and consolidation of multidimensional strategic partnership between India and the US.”
Political uncertainty
Official singsongs aside, there is a significant amount of chatter in the diplomatic and foreign policy circles on the international muddle that is the Trump presidency. In the context of India, this is a big departure since the time of President George W Bush, who, despite his domestic unpopularity, enjoyed a cordial relation with Dr Manmohan Singh, and sealed the civil nuclear deal with India in 2005.
President Obama of course carried the legacy forward and paid his first state visit in 2009 to India and Dr Singh, holding the latter in high regard. Obama continued the diplomatic overtures with PM Narendra Modi, whom the former POTUS met over eight times in two and half years at various avenues, including formal visits to respective countries, particularly as the chief guest in 2015 on the Republic Day in New Delhi.
Trump dispensation is nothing like the previous two in the White House. While the talk of the “spirit of cooperation” continues to get beamed from official channels, the internal dynamics have undergone a staggering change, with the White House speaking in forked tongues over various issues of national and international importance.
Trump’s insular look at America’s place in world politics has sent shock waves and his withdrawal from global pacts such as the Paris deal, while not being able to break away from truly exploitative neoliberal deals of the Bill Clinton era, such as the NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement), has meant that there’s no consistency in the current administration on policy matters.
Issues at stake
A. Immigration and H-1B visa fracas
Trump’s “America First” and “Buy American, Hire American” policies have sent ripples of digital disruption in the Indian IT sector, which was availing a sizeable chunk of the 85,000 H-1B visas issued annually to highly skilled immigrants, particularly deployed by the Silicon Valley. Thousands of entry-level Indian engineers working as software developers and computer programmers in the US risk losing their jobs as the Department of Justice and Homeland Security as well as the US centre of immigration firm up the regulations, asking that H-1B visa be granted to really highly qualified professionals at double the salary of an average Indian techie working in the US. Remittances aside, the US-India technology barter is premised on IT and the service sector, and it’s obvious that PM Modi would raise the issue and try to reason with Trump.
B. Race crimes against Indians
Srinivas Kuchibholta of Kansas City is one among a series of names belonging to Indians working/residing in the US, who have been brutally killed in rising instances of race-related crimes in the US. Hate crimes have become a talking point in the India-US diplomatic ties, and have been exacerbated by Trump-induced white nationalism – though it’s similar to the lynch mob crimes committed by Hindu nationalists in the name of the cow back home.
C. Pakistan and terrorism
India has by now tried to corner Pakistan at a number of international forums on the issue of terror. Whether it’s the cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan, or the spate of recent attacks on Indian Army installations, particularly in Uri on September 18 last year, the question of Pakistan goes hand-in-hand with combatting terrorism, as far as India is concerned.
While Trump has shown no peculiar interest or disinterest in Pakistan, Modi can be expected to flag the issue when the two meet in two weeks. However, Trump is also expected to follow the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, both of whom keep India guessing on the question of Pakistan.
D. Defence tie-ups post LEMOA
India and the US have considered each other as “strategic partners” since the civil nuclear deal of 2005 and that is unlikely to change. However, Trump and Modi may discuss the future of defence ties, particularly the fate of LEMOA of 2016, or the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a comprehensive deal to refuel each others air and naval craft while exchanging vital technologies and intel.
One of the major focus areas in both Modi and Trump administrations is the defence sector, and the US, though signing 110 billion dollar deals with powers like Saudi Arabia, nevertheless, cannot afford to neglect India, the largest defence importer in the world. It’s obvious that the two will walk a tightrope between their Make in India and America First policies in this matter.
E. Climate conundrum
Moreover, despite Trump’s overt skepticism on the issue of climate change, and his pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord, it could be that the two have talks on this issue as well and find a middle ground. Trump might realise that he’s leaving a huge leadership vacuum in the international climate politics, while Modi, and others like Macron of France, Xi of China, are quickly filling in the void by voicing the right concerns and pledges.
Consular void in US-India ties
At the moment, there’s a big consular hole in India-US ties, as the White House still hasn’t picked an ambassador to India. Ken Juster, a White House insider big on economic policy, is being considered for the job, though there’s no surety on that front. Other vacancies in the South Asian outreach portfolio include the post of the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia.
It must be noted that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hasn’t really issued any India-specific statements, and even during matters like the immigration and work visa, or climate deal, no particular interest in South Asia has emanated from the White House yet. Of course, this is in direct contrast with its acute involvement – in war and trade deals – with the Middle East.
According to policy grapevine, “New Delhi's main interface has been National Security Adviser HR McMaster, whose equation with President Trump seems uncertain (which is also true of almost all senior administration officials).”
Trump-Modi camaraderie?
With fringe Hindu groups observing Trump’s birthday on June 14 in New Delhi, the bizarre never gets old-fashioned in the current geopolitical theatre. Though many in the policy circles are expecting nothing much from the Modi-Trump meet, there are some, particularly the militarist hardliners, who spot in this a big opportunity.
However, it’s still an unsettled question whether or not Trump and Modi will ultimately develop a camaraderie like their predecessors in New Delhi and Washington.