Why Modi should favour Sheikh Hasina instead of Mamata Banerjee over Teesta waters
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tough choices in front of him - to choose between two powerful women and the head of states - Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the PM of Bangladesh and Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of Bengal.
The bone of contention is the water-sharing of the river Teesta with Bangladesh - a river that originates from Sikkim and flows through north Bengal and then through Bangladesh.
The neighbouring country wants 50 per cent of its water during the lean water months for irrigation and fishery needs.
In 2011, when the PMs of the two countries were ready to sign the Teesta water treaty, Mamata raised objections and cancelled her trip to Dhaka with then PM Manmohan Singh. It caused immense embarrassment for the Indian government in front of its neighbours.
This time also, when the two prime ministers met in Delhi in April, Mamata played a party-spoiler. Raising a stumbling block for the Teesta water treaty, she instead came out with a complicated alternate proposal of inter-linking other rivers and sharing their water with Bangladesh, which cannot be done immediately.
The Teesta’s floodplains span a vast 2,750sqkm in Bangladesh and support the livelihood of more than 10 million people engaged in agriculture and fishing. Teesta water-sharing is the primary concern for Hasina, for the obvious reason that the country is heading towards elections within a few months.
In a country where the majority of the electorate comprises peasants, failure to get water for them during the hard dry days would prove costly for Hasina in front of the strong opposition which labels her as a “pawn” of India.
The chairperson of the Bangladesh National Party, Khaleda Zia, has already called Hasina’s recent trip to India as a “complete sell-out” and questioned the authenticity of the MoUs signed during the visit. Zia also rubbished Modi’s assurance towards sharing the water of Teesta and other rivers with Bangladesh.
Last month, during Mamata’s visit in Delhi to garner support and integrate the opposition parties on one platform to fight out the over-riding rise of BJP in the country, in the garb of choosing an acceptable candidate for the upcoming presidential election, Mamata in her meeting with Modi again raised strong objections to sharing of Teesta waters.
In a letter to the PM, she blamed Bangladesh for blocking the water of three rivers to Bengal. She pointed out that her state government's experience with the 1996 India-Bangladesh Ganga water sharing treaty was not a happy one.
It is clear that Mamata is not ready to budge an inch from her earlier stand. Her recent outburst against the Centre asking not to interfere into the state’s issue is also in tandem with her archetypical stubbornness to embarrass the Modi government in front of its neighbours.
In this complex situation, Modi has to clearly make a distinction between his friends and foes.
Bangladesh has been Indian’s strongest ally in South Asia and today the relationship with Bangladesh and India is at its best. The credit goes completely to Hasina.
She has gone beyond her limits, negating the vociferous anti-India outcry of the main opposition party BNP and hardcore Islamist fundamentalists like Jamat-e-Islami, to stretch out her hand of friendship for India.
In her regime, the biggest favour ever done by Hasina is her strong dealing with the anti-India militancy in the North-East region, by denying militants safe havens in her country and even arresting them and handing them over to Indian agencies - exactly the opposite of what Pakistan has been doing on the western border of India. Another important favour is granting transit rights at extremely concessional rates for transporting goods to the landlocked North-East India.
Bangladesh was India’s headache besides Pakistan during BNP rule from 1991 to 1996 and from 2001 to 2006, when Zia was the prime minister. She provided shelter to leaders of North-East militants groups of India. She also gave a free run to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the country, followed by a dastardly pogrom against the Hindus.
Not only that, the anti-India and pro-Pakistan BNP denied India transit rights, encouraged anti-Indian Islamist hardliners and actively helped China gain a firm foothold in Bangladesh.
Hasina has been criticised vehemently by the BNP and hardliners for her India-friendly policies. If Modi fails to deliver the Teesta agreement to Bangladesh soon, it will give ammunition to opposition in Bangladesh and this might have a serious impact on the electoral challenge Hasina is going to face next year.
It would be a great failure for Indian diplomacy if Hasina loses the electoral battle, because India has not given her much in return. This is also the perception that the opposition in her country is trying to create to her secular approach in a Muslim state and her ties with India.
India offered $10 billion investment and a $5 billion loan to Bangladesh during Hasina’s visit to Delhi, but this is far short of China’s $24 billion soft loan for infrastructure development offered to Hasina. Dhaka also acquired two Ming class diesel-electric submarines for its navy from China last December. Bangladesh and India have signed two MoUs in the defence sector, this time to strengthen the military relationship among the two nations.
Thus, it is in India’s interest to curb Chinese influence on its south Asian neighbours and to stall Pakistan’s ISI activities across the eastern border. Modi should help Hasina retain power.
India honours the Indus Waters pact with Pakistan, which is sponsoring terrorism in India and beheading Indian troops, and there is no reason why we should deny a very friendly neighbour like Bangladesh its due share of Teesta waters and the waters of other common rivers.
Bangladesh as a lower riparian state deserves the help. If Modi fails to deliver on the pact, it would also hurt the image of India as a sovereign state internationally – that it worked out a treaty and did not sign it due to political pressure.
New Delhi should choose its friends intelligently and ignore Mamata’s theatrics and resistance for political gain and move forward to build a stronger relationship with Bangladesh under the rule of Sheikh Hasina.