How GST, demonetisation and Patidars have made Surat the epicentre of Gujarat polls
The top stakeholders in the Gujarat Assembly elections are set to visit Surat in the span of the ongoing week. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi addressed the last rally of the third phase of his Gujarat Navsarjan Yatra in Surat's Varachcha area and announced that he will spend the anniversary of the demonetisation drive - November 8 - in the city. Incidentally, Amit Shah will also be campaigning in the diamond hub at the same time.
PM Narendra Modi has already done a road show in Surat and is likely to be back soon. So what makes the city crucial in the context of the Assembly elections? Why are both Congress and BJP going all out to hold rallies here? Why are political pundits calling Surat the deciding factor? Well, the identity of the city itself is the reason behind the political importance the city has assumed in the run-up to the battle of Gujarat.
Demonetisation, GST and the Patidar reservation are the most important election issues in the state today. Known as a diamond hub and the biggest textile market in the country, Surat also has a strong Patidar presence. These three issues may appear different, but in Surat they are interwoven and interconnected.
40 percent of the country's manmade fabric is from the city of Surat. The daily turnover is in the tune of 1,000 crores. From a small loading labourer to a millionaire, the textile industry in Surat touches almost every household of Surat directly or indirectly. More than the buzzing markets, small and medium textile units, power looms or value addition units like embroidery works, dyeing and printing etc form a large part of the textile industry. These units were the worst-hit during demonetisation. And just as they were limping back to normalcy, they received a body blow by GST. The journey of the final textile product goes through 27 different procedures. For the smaller and relatively less educated who run small businesses, the structure of the tax reform was too complicated to comprehend. This led to a double whammy and hence Surat became the epicentre of protests against demonetisation and GST.
The story isn't different for the diamond industry. With an annual import of ₹1 lakh crore and export of ₹1.48 lakh crore, the industry has seen a decline of 18 percent in the last one year. With close to 6,000 cutting/polishing units, the industry is responsible for the direct employment of 5 lakh people. While there is an exemption in the IGST, the diamond industry is unhappy about the 3 percent GST on business-to-business transactions.
Although these problems have been in the public domain for some time, what makes them politically relevant today is the fact that the Patidar community is a major stakeholder in both the businesses. According to a rough estimate, 70 percent of the small textile units are linked to the Patidars while a similar number or more are associated with them in the diamond industry.
The community that was already up in arms against the government demanding reservations suffered on the economic front owing to two of the BJP-led Centre's major reforms.
The BJP has all the 12 Assembly seats in its pocket today. But will it be able to repeat its electoral feat is the big question. Rahul's rally in Varachcha could also be seen as an indicator. In last two decades, this was the biggest crowd a Congress rally had seen. The Patels have been a strong and defendable vote bank for the BJP. And it's not just Varachcha - even Kamrej, Karanj, North Surat and Katargam Aasembly seats have a strong Patidar presence. The problem for the BJP is that a significant number of affected parties are Patidar - a politically dominant caste fighting for reservation is also impacted as a business community. And that's what makes Surat the symbol of the entire battle for Gujarat.
Whatever the results of the Gujarat polls, it will certainly be a reflection of the results in Surat.