Siddaramaiah is playing BJP's game to retain Karnataka CM seat
Often ridiculed as "Niddaramaiah", Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah is seen to have shaken off lethargy and worked out his own counter-strategy to every move of the BJP in the run-up to the state elections in early 2018.
The Karnataka elections will be eagerly watched, as it is the only big state held by the Congress and a win here for BJP would pave the way for its grand entry into the South. And Siddaramaiah's current moves are everything the Congress had never been known for and BJP had taken pride in.
He is, with ease, playing the BJP’s tactics against it - raising sub-nationalist fervour, identity politics and championing the Kannada cause.
BJP state president BS Yeddyurappa, who has been tasked with wresting Karnataka from the Congress, has been touring the state extensively. Well supported by the extensive network of the Sangh Parivar, BJP’s machinery had been in full swing, before being caught off-guard by Siddaramaiah’s own class of identity politics.
If experts are to be believed, Siddaramaiah is rousing Kannada pride to make this election a Kannada vs Hindutva poll. He is countering every move of the BJP in a calculated manner.
Kannada pride
Siddaramaiah's proactive approach to champion identity issues has caught BJP napping. Consider the moves of making Kannada mandatory in schools, singing of the official state anthem compulsory and the resistance to signboards in Hindi in Bangalore Metro and even the state flag controversy - Siddaramaiah has played BJP’s "championing the identity" moves.
These are the moves usually championed by the BJP - and with his proactive approach, he seems to have out-smarted his rivals (at least for now). For political watchers, the state unit of the Congress has reshaped itself as a regional unit, stirring emotive waters, flagging identities and making every possible move to give a cult status to their leader.
Siddaramaiah stirred controversy by making a move for a separate Kannada flag, an old controversy which can likely become central to the forthcoming elections. This is an emotive issue, symbolising everything Kannada; the language, culture and Kannada pride.
Though the BJP has questioned the move, it hasn’t been able to up its campaign against it. The issue could sweep across the state, especially when anti-north sentiment in the state has spiked and the Congress has definitely decided to capitalise on the issue in the run-up to the elections. He might be flogging a dead horse with his move, but Siddaramaiah is surely setting the narrative for the elections.
Taking the battle to Yeddyurappa’s grounds
Yeddyurappa has a loyal Lingayat voter base to build his electoral prospects on. With a numerical strength of almost 18 per cent of the voter base, this strong and impenetrable base has helped the BJP reap huge electoral benefits, especially in north Karnataka.
Siddaramaiah hasn’t backed off from taking the fight to Yeddyurappa’s grounds. In a recent convention of Lingayats, he assured them he would convey to the Centre their demand to be classified as a separate religion.
Yeddyurappa has always asserted that the Lingayats remain in the Hindu fold, while a faction of Lingayats believe that theirs is an off-shoot of Hinduism and be deemed a separate religion just like Buddhism.
Even a slight fissure in the Lingayat base can turn tables in favour of the Congress. However, many believe this move could prove suicidal for the Congress, if the BJP succeeds in portraying Congress as anti-Hindu and designing this sinister move to break Lingayat unity.
Siddaramaiah surely knows the risks and must have well weighed the benefits to electoral costs he might have to incur. But assuming that electoral battles in Karnataka have been close and Congress and BJP enjoy almost the same size of loyal voter base, this "show me the pie" brand of politics as practised, could well set the cat among the pigeons and a possible break into the Lingayat vote-bank might swing the narrative in favour of the Congress.
It might seem a tough task, given the community's anguish with the Congress after sacking of powerful Lingayat leader Veerendra Patil as chief minister by then Congress chief Rajiv Gandhi, in October 1990; but if not anything, this strategy could make the BJP go on the defensive about securing its own vote bank and lose some time before consolidating other vote bases.
The caste equation
Belonging to the backward Kuruba caste, Siddaramaiah, has positioned himself as the unchallenged leader of the AHINDA formation (a grouping of minorities, backwards classes and Dalits) and invested enough energy to form a rainbow coalition of backward castes.
His attempt to consolidate this loose group was also seen in increased allocations for backward classes in the 2017-18 budget. At the three-day Ambedkar international conference titled "Quest for Equity", Siddaramaiah recalled instances of discrimination he faced as a child and said, “Only those who have faced discrimination can understand it, get angry about it, and, hence, have the will to change it.”
In the layer within layer politics of Karnataka, caste issues play out in a complicated manner. A tactical understanding with the JD (S) could get the Congress a fraction of Vokkalinga votes, and with the much pampered Ahinda votes in its kitty and a break in the Lingayat vote, Siddaramaiah may yield a hard blow to the BJP.
With Dalit population estimated at 23 per cent, Kurubas 8 per cent and Muslims making up 10 per cent, the Ahinda vote base alone could propel Siddaramaiah back to the power seat. The high command's decision to send Mallikarjuna Kharge (a Dalit leader) back to the state could prove an added advantage to Siddaramaiah.
In spite of making up the bulk of the vote-base, Karnataka politics has over the years centred around two dominant castes of the Lingayats and Vokkalingas, constituting almost one-third of the state population and well nurtured over years by the BJP and JD (S).
Siddaramaiah, and Congress, seem to have realised that to remain in power, they need to consolidate the loose faction of backward classes and give Karnataka politics a backward class tryst, all while making tacit attempts to get support of the break-away factions of dominant castes.
While the state Congress seems upbeat by the smart moves of Siddaramaiah in setting the political narrative for the forthcoming elections and taking focus away from his lethargic yet non-controversial four-year stint and the widespread drought in north Karnataka, it will be increasingly prudent to make state elections more local.
Though he has had an early start, the patronage system might not necessarily bring success and it is seen from previous state elections that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal potentially stretches across electoral groups.
Siddaramaiah might, as of now, be using the political script mastered by the BJP, but only time will tell if he can succeed in ensuring that elections are fought on local factors, veneered with sub-nationalist fervour, and turned into a personality combat.