How the political mess in Akhilesh Yadav's party may make BJP's ride to power easy in 2019
There are no signs of any initiative to form a mahagatbandhan (grand alliance) in Uttar Pradesh, yet there is a perception among people that the alliance has been formed and is ready to take on the BJP.
People, who are unhappy with the BJP, are being heard saying in villages and towns that they will vote for the mahagatbandhan in the next election. So, for some people, the grand alliance in very much in existence, even if politicians and parties continue to be in a state of confusion over it.
Dissenting Samajwadi Party (SP) leader and uncle of party chief Akhilesh Yadav, Shivpal Singh Yadav, has declared the formation of a new forum called the Secular Samajwadi Forum. Shivpal Yadav has declared the forum will field candidates on all 80 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections.
The development might impact the formation of the mahagatbandhan in a big way.
Shivpal Yadav is known as a 'zamini leader', one who has a firm grip on ground-level politics. He has cultivated a strong network of political followers during his long stint in the party. He has issued an appeal to the cadres and leaders of SP to come together and fight for their dignity. Shivpal Yadav has asked those dissatisfied with the SP to join the Secular Samajwadi Morcha. This is a significant call given the fact that Shivpal
Yadav has influence in the Yadav dominant areas in western, central and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
If Shivpal Yadav succeeds in denting the SP vote bank it will in turn hit the political prospects of the mahagatbandhan which is still in discussion stage.
Given that SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav had openly sided with him during the party feud in the run up to the 2017 Assembly election, it is speculated that Shivpal Yadav may succeed in serving a huge blow to the
Akhilesh-led party. Shivapal Yadav is already making efforts to win over Mulayam's admirers and followers in the SP.
Quite obviously, it's the BJP which is happy with the development. In TV debates, BJP leaders are seen siding with Shivpal Yadav talking about how he had been marginalised in the SP over the last few years.
Akhilesh Yadav has expressed suspicion that the BJP could be behind the development.
Akhilesh must try hard to convince his party cadres that the BJP is behind his uncle's move, if he fails to do so it could lead to a wider disenchantment among his party and encourage many more people to leave the SP.
There is also a possibility that Shivpal Yadav is only posturing to gain a greater bargaining power vis-a-vis his nephew in the party's day-to-day functioning and the issue is resolved amicably within the Yadav parivar.
This could lead the party to fight the 2019 election as a united house.
The possibility of a truce looks real because as soon as Shivpal made the announcement regarding his new forum, Mulayam Singh Yadav reached the SP's office in Lucknow and gave an indication that all is well.
How the story actually unfolds is, however, something only time can answer.
Meanwhile, it is understood that the BJP will try to weaken both the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ahead of the elections.
Quite interestingly, as soon as Shivpal Yadav announced his morcha, former SP leader Amar Singh and other dissidents of the SP launched a concerted attack on Akhilesh Yadav. Amar Singh also went on to praise Prime Minister Narendra Modi while criticising Akhilesh.
The two developments cannot be seen in isolation.
On the other hand, the BJP is also trying to make inroads into the Dalit vote bank, known to vote en mass for the BSP. With the reworked, SC/ST Atrocities Act, the BJP wants to be seen as a Dalit hitaishi party (party working in the interest of Dalits).
The only problem is that the Dalit activists and students who protested the dilution of the Act believe that they saved the legislation on their own. Also, another interesting thing to watch out for would be how the non-Dalit, upper castes see BJP's role in the whole episode.
There is a sense on the ground that some are miffed with the BJP for not fighting for the dilution of the act.
It will be interesting to see how the mahagatbandhan weaves itself together to take on the BJP. How parties overcome their differences to come together and how far the BJP goes in stopping them.