Sena, say nah: BJP’s winning but alienating allies

Confidence is a virtue, overconfidence is not. Reinvigorated by the success in Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP is assertive and wants to play the Big Brother in states too. The process began with Nitish Kumar dropping the BJP over Modi’s candidature and the party managing to do well without the bigger ally in Bihar. In UP, it won a record number of seats in Lok Sabha elections. In Haryana, it came to power for the first time. In Maharashtra, it fell short after fighting the elections on its own.

Its long-term ally, Shiv Sena didn’t agree to give the BJP more than 119 seats. The BJP broke away from the Sena and beat them at their own game. The recent risk-taking by BJP chief Amit Shah has paid off, in more than one way. But the continued quarrel with a former ally in Maharashtra may hurt the party. As is his wont, Shah, with Modi’s approval, wants to risk injuries to emerge as the victor in the end. But the odds aren’t in its favour.

Without the Sena, the second-largest party in the Assembly and as its natural ally, the BJP has to depend on the unconditional support of the Nationalist Congress Party. There is no such thing called an unconditional support. The BJP had promised to investigate and punish NCP politicians guilty of swindling funds allocated to various welfare schemes. NCP’s state boss, Ajit Pawar, was the target of the BJP’s attack and Narendra Modi had called the party, a "Naturally Corrupt Party". The question is: Can the BJP prosecute NCP leaders involved in the massive irrigation scam? Because if it does, the NCP will pull the plug. If it doesn’t or delays a probe, it will be tainted forever.

With the Sena out, the BJP will be in trouble at the Centre as well. Though it enjoys a simple majority in the Lok Sabha, its numbers in Rajya Sabha don’t add up. To pass crucial legislations, the party could take the joint session route, but without the Sena’s 17 Rajya Sabha members, the BJP is not likely to get 392 members to back a legislation in a joint session. That may result in slowing down the process of change Modi had promised in his election campaign.

The way it has treated its 25-year-old ally in Maharashtra also sends a wrong signal to its existing and prospective allies in the future. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) will be wary of the BJP’s moves in Punjab. Local BJP leaders already think of SAD as a liability. But the truth is, it’s because of the SAD that the party has been sharing power in Punjab for seven years. Also, the BJP doesn’t have much of a grass roots structure in many states, especially the Northeast and the South. If the bickering continues and the separation is as painful as the one in process in Maharashtra right now, well, it will find it difficult to attract dependable, long-term allies.

The "ekla chalo re" or do-it-alone policy won’t kill the BJP. Its decision-makers believe what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger. There is another saying: What doesn’t kill you, will try to kill you again when you aren’t looking.