How Yadav family feud will affect SP in UP polls
In large parts of northern India, autumn is a precursor of a harsh winter. In most parts of Uttar Pradesh, the nip in the air early morning is a sign of changing seasons. Regardless of how the ongoing drama within Samajwadi Party gets resolved and whether Mulayam Singh Yadav eventually succeeds in hammering out a lasting compromise between his brother and son, it is clear that autumn has set in not just in Mulayam’s life but also in his political career.
With that, a big question mark also looms on the prospects of the SP’s poll performance, either united or disunited.
With the patriarch’s authority challenged publicly like never before by his elder son, Akhilesh Yadav, the veteran’s hold on the party he built over the past quarter of a century appear to be over. This development will also have a direct impact on the support of the traditional vote banks of the party – Muslims, Yadavs and a few other economically upwardly-mobile OBCs.
Events over the past few weeks, and specifically over the past 24 hours, have demonstrated that the final curtains on Mulayam’s political career are most likely to be preceded by further humiliation, as if enough has not already been heaped on him.
While it is too premature for detailed assessment of the impact of recent developments on the forthcoming elections, there are some pointers both in the immediate context and also in terms of the long-term political consequences.
#WATCH Earlier Visuals: Heated argument between CM Akhilesh Yadav and Shivpal Yadav during Samajwadi Party meeting in Lucknow pic.twitter.com/nzMLQPK3A3
— ANI UP (@ANINewsUP) October 24, 2016
For the past several years, all eyes have been on the electoral choice of the state’s slightly more than 18 per cent Muslims. The two primary claimants to this extremely significant vote bank are undoubtedly the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. But even the Bharatiya Janata Party has been closely tracking the mood in the community.
The BJP has consistently been of the view that it stands to benefit whenever the Muslims decide to back a single party completely in the entire state, except when the community chooses to vote tactically.
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| The BJP has consistently been of the view that it stands to benefit whenever the Muslims decide to back a single party completely in the entire state. (Photo: PTI) |
This means that members of the community decide on constituency-to-constituency basis, opting to cast their lot with the candidate who has the best chance to defeat the BJP nominee. This has meant that the Muslims are willing to accept nominees of any party that is not aligned with the BJP, even the Congress.
Yet, there is no gainsaying that current events within the SP have disillusioned Muslims and in the event of a split, or even if an uneasy truce is worked out within the “Yaduvansh”, a large chunk of votes of the community will move to the BSP candidates, which will undoubtedly be seen as having better chances of defeating BJP candidates.
The complete recasting of the electoral arithmetic in the state will depend on the final outcome of the inner battles within the SP, but there is no denying that the developments will see non-core voters drifting to different parties.
The anti-BJP but pro-development voters who have been enamoured with Akhilesh Yadav are likely to stick with him regardless of him forming a new party or staying with the SP with renewed mandate from the seniors. But those who had been fence-sitters are likely to opt for the BJP. The non-Yadav OBCs are also likely to move towards the BJP because of traditional animosity with Dalits, the core voters of the BSP.
The risk of going alone would be clear to both factions and there will be several attempts to ensure that a united front is maintained. But the internal wrangling and physical jostling and arguments between top leaders bitterness that was telecast live on Monday will severely erode the party’s goodwill.
The party is likely to falter in the event of a two-pronged strategy – the first which places Akhilesh and his pro-development and governance in the forefront, and the other which uses the old-style identity driven campaign.
A united SP’s prospects will also likely depend on who has the decisive say in candidate selection. The moot question is also if both factions will campaign for candidates from the other group.
As of now, the BSP appears to be the bigger gainer from the internal fracas within SP. This is because the voters are more divided on pro- and anti-BJP lines. It must be remembered that Narendra Modi was the big polariser in 2014 and he remains one today.
With the BJP moving one step closer to polarising the voters on religious lines when Modi raised the triple talaq issue, the battle lines are getting more sharply drawn.
As a result, the anti-BJP voters will be more united in their choice than before.