Expect sabre-rattling, but Russia and Turkey can't afford a war

The shooting of the Russian Sukhoi-24 by F16 of Turkey on Tuesday is no doubt going to further complicate the already complex and bloody conflict in Syria-Iraq that has been stretching since 2011. While each side in the conflict has been taking holier than thou positions on the terror outfit that now controls considerable land in Iraq and Syria to call itself the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS), but the hands of every player involved in the conflict - Assad regime, Turkey, Iran, Russia - are sullied in blood.  

ISIS, no doubt, is emerging as the most dangerous threat not only for West Asia and the Muslim world, but as the Paris attack shows, for the world at large. The metamorphosis of al-Qaeda into ISIS in West Asia has not only jeopardised all hopes of a "Spring" in the region, but fuelled the biggest refugee crisis since the World War II. But the facts on the ground show that the conflict in Syria is more complex than in any other country, wherein simplistic "either you are with us or with them" paradigm of so-called strategists is found to be utterly lacking in substance.

While there is no direct evidence to suggest that the West actually helped create ISIS, it is a matter of public knowledge that the West, in fact, did fund, train and arm a number of rebel groups, many of which later switched camps to join ISIS. All warnings of how in Syria, Western countries were playing with fire by practically being in the same camp as al-Qaeda in their attempt to "change regime" and supporting "pro-people" forces, had fallen on deaf ears. Meanwhile, on the Iraqi side, several Ba'athists, those who served under Saddam Hussein as well as other Sunni factions, feeling alienated due to exclusivist policies of former Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, joined hands with ISIS. Further, no "sanction" seems to work here as they control some of the oil fields and are also seen driving new Toyota cars in hordes.

Earlier, when the wave of so-called "Arab Spring" had reached Damascus in 2011 as protests began on the streets, President Bashar al-Assad, otherwise perceived to be a "reformist" and "liberal" dealt sternly, feeling threatened after the fall of three successive governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and change at helm in Yemen. The father-son duo of Assad family (Alawite by faith), it should be noted, has been ruling Syria since 1971 like any other former authoritarian regime of the region, led by Saddam Hussein to Hosni Mubarak and Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, using a combination of patronage-client system while allocating power and resources, dealing with all kinds of dissent with a heavy hand - imprisonment, exiles and at times even massacres - and practically giving little freedom or political space to any sort of opposition. Yes junior Assad, especially seen in the company of his London-educated wife Asama, appeared more "liberal and secular", but that does not wash away the blood stains of the regime.

The fact that the heavy hands with which Bashar al-Assad dealt with the dissenters, a large majority of whom were Sunnis as the country has overwhelming Sunni population, only strengthened the armed opposition, too, must not be swept under the carpet. The arrival of the regional players further aggravated the situation though. From Saudi Arabia to Turkey and Qatar, who were on different sides of the fence in the counter-coup of Egypt that had toppled the government of Mohammad Morsi and brought back military rule as General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took rein in his hands, agreed on "regime change" in Damascus. In fact, till ISIS formally announced the establishment of a purported "Caliphate" in 2014, Turkey thumped its chest on different platforms noting that they are on the right side of history, adding that they share a long border with Syria and are the biggest recipient of refugees and hence it is critical for them to intervene.

I sat with Dr Omair Anas, an expert on West Asia and research fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, few days ago to understand exactly who is on which side in this long-drawn conflict. With the help of a slide (see below), he helped me better understand how each side is choosing its enemies and friends in Syria and consequently bombing those areas considered hostile, besides ISIS.

Thus as Turkey started bombing in Syria, it was accused of targeting Kurdish areas more than the ISIS-occupied territories, while Russia has been accused of targeting bases of anti-Assad Free Syrian Army and other anti-Assad forces. Anas in fact points out another interesting part of the ongoing conflict that has largely been ignored by the media: large number of Iran-supported Shia militias - not just Hezbollah, but many others as well - aiding the Assad regime. After the Paris attack, meanwhile, France too has started bombing territories held by ISIS.

The Tuesday downing of the Russian war plane Su-24 by Turkey is the manifestation of the same complexity. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has termed it a "stab on the back" from those abetting terrorism, he said nothing on why the particular Su-24 was flying over non-ISIS Turkmen-dominated areas in northern Syria, very close to the border of Turkey, purportedly violating Turkish airspace.

Turkish media had earlier reported that on Friday, Turkey had summoned Russia's ambassador to register protest against targeting of Turkmen units, whom it considers as "brothers and sisters" due to close ethnic affinities. In fact, on Monday itself Turkey had called for a UN Security Council meeting on the issue.

By late afternoon on Tuesday, one of the trends globally on social media was #WorldWarIII, expressing apprehension that the shooting down of Russian plane may spark another world war. That might not happen anytime soon, as NATO, Turkey and as Russia realise that they need to cooperate at certain levels as well in Syria. It is clear, however, that despite a common anti-terror rhetoric, as always the world powers remain divided on who the terrorists are. Further, to paint ISIS as some sort of zealous group driven by a hallowed religious and ideological agenda of establishing a Caliphate, or seeing the conflict as some sort of Shia-Sunni schism, ignoring the fertile ground realities and geo-strategic competitions, only serves the purpose of terrorists while hiding the culpabilities of major powers. The Syrian crisis alone has meanwhile caused over 250,000 deaths and over four million are stranded as refugees in different countries, while half of over 22 million population has been internally displaced.