Why Rajinikanth's political debut is unlikely to be a blockbuster
"I cannot handle the media," said Rajinikanth during an off-camera tete-e-tete with journalists in Chennai on Tuesday evening. The journalists could have returned the compliment as even they have found it difficult to "read" him.
Do they see him as yet another "abhineta" who aspires to be a "neta"? Or do they see him as another MGR in the making? Do they see him as a brand, or is he just someone propped up by political players in the background, looking for an affable mask to make inroads into Tamil Nadu?
The media, Tamil Nadu and India do not know because Rajinikanth ain't speaking. At least, not yet. Despite their welcome tweets, political parties remain wary of him. They know Rajini in his new role can be a game-changer because he commands love and trust, something any politician would die for. Proof is already available with his website, rajinimandram.org, getting one million hits and three lakh registrations (of members) in the first 24 hours.
But is Rajinikanth set to be the next Kollywood import, destined to rule Tamil Nadu? A SWOT analysis would reveal that it would be foolish to write him off but then again, politics isn't a scripted film for Rajini to become chief minister before the end credits start rolling.
For one, most people ignore that while Rajini indeed played a critical part in the DMK-TMC victory in 1996, going ballistic with his criticism of the then chief minister J Jayalalithaa, his political positions in subsequent elections were rubbished by the people. In 1998 (Lok Sabha elections), for instance, he continued to vaguely back the DMK-TMC alliance, but it was beaten by the AIADMK-BJP tie-up, that won 30 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.
In 2004, he shifted his preference to the AIADMK-BJP piqued by the PMK that had opposed his film, Baba, two years earlier. But the DMK-led alliance swept the polls winning all 39 seats. And in a rebuff to Rajini, the PMK won all the five seats it contested. So, it is not as if Tamil Nadu has blindly followed what Rajini has lobbied for.
Rajini is banking on his larger-than-life screen image to work the magic for him. Significant in a state whose politics has always been intertwined with a cult personality. But then the box office verdict of late would suggest Rajini does not have the same connect with the audience that he had two decades ago. Between Enthiran that released in 2010 and 2.0 that will release this April, his films have not set the Cooum on fire. Offerings like Kochadaiiyaan (2014) and Lingaa (2014) were box office duds while Kabali (2016) was nowhere in the range of a Baasha, Muthu or a Padayappa.
The jury is out on how much Tamil Nadu's first-time voter at 18 will connect to a 67-year-old Rajinikanth. While those in the 50-plus bracket, who grew up on Rajini's best years in K Balachander movies, will relate to his cinematic celebrityhood, for the young, Rajini is more of a brand than an actor. How well this filmy brand is marketed in a political wrapper, will determine his success.
Then there is the shadow of the BJP over his political venture that could derail him. The saffron party's emphasis on Hindi and Hindutva and its role in remote-controlling the AIADMK through 2017, has dented its popularity in the state. The BJP Tamil Nadu unit's overenthusiasm in welcoming Rajini and keenness to provide him with political infrastructure has made several people wary of his backers.
Another point that could trip him is the absence of a clear vote bank. Can he indeed convert all his fans into voters, ignoring the other considerations of caste, religion, economic status that would weigh in when they go to vote. Most believe that Kaala that will release mid-2018, will project Rajinikanth as a hero of the underprivileged, a Dalit icon of sorts, carrying forward the Kabali characterisation. How would that play out in a Tamil Nadu, dominated by politically powerful OBCs like the Thevars, Gounders and Vanniyars, whose animosity vis-a-vis the Dalits is well-documented. And why wouldn't Dalit outfits which are already in the ground see Rajini as an usurper of their constituency?
Once the celebratory noises over his political plunge wear off, Rajinikanth will be pushed to emphasise his "Pacha Tamizhan" card. Given the animosity between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka over Cauvery river water sharing, his Kannadiga roots will be used by his opponents to push him on the defensive. Unconfirmed and mischievous reports that the BJP will request him to campaign for the party in Karnataka in April, are designed to create problems for him.
The fear is that Rajinikanth, a la Chiranjeevi in Andhra Pradesh in 2009, would at best be an also-ran. Can he match up to the money power and muscle power politics the DMK and the AIADMK are likely to play?
If he ends up becoming a spoiler leading to a hung Assembly, would Tamil Nadu like that? After a year of governance deficit, with Tamil Nadu losing industrial projects to Andhra Pradesh, can the state afford a split verdict?
What will work for Rajini is that he is untainted in a Tamil Nadu that is now defined by an RK Nagar. Which is where his use of the phrase "spiritual politics" is significant. After criticism that it was a reference to Hindu-ised politics, Rajinikanth clarified that he meant it in the context of truthful and honest politics.
Rajinikanth has spoken of ushering in a political revolution. So far, he has no track record of fighting corruption, given his tendency to shy away from all controversies, unlike a Kamal Haasan. Unless Rajinikanth 2.0 is very different from the Rajinikanth we have known so far.