Pakistan has more nuclear weapons than India. Is United States listening?

A recent report published in Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, compiled by Hans M Kristensen and Robert S Norris, suggested in nutshell that Pakistan has developed an estimated stockpile of 130 to 140 warheads for delivery and will be the fifth largest nuke capable nation by 2025. Earlier it was thought that Pakistan had around 100-110 warhead, but the latest update means the neighbour is ahead of India in nuke capabilities.

Not only this, Pakistan may become the world's third-largest nuclear weapon state in a decade from now, says the report titled "Pakistan is expanding its nuclear power".

It is also converting some of its fighter jets, including F-16s, to deliver nukes as well as developing short-range nuclear capable missiles for the purpose of dominating any attempted invasion by Indian troops.

The report also emphasised that Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads, delivery systems, and a growing fissile materials production industry; with several delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors and its uranium enrichment facilities expanding, Pakistan's stockpile will possibly increase further over the next 10 years.

Speculation that Pakistan may become the world's third-largest nuclear weapon state - with a stockpile of some 350 warheads a decade from now - is not the least exaggerated because that would require a build up two to three times faster than growth over the past two decades, the authors have said. And, if tomorrow, Pakistan is cleared a designated terrorist state, then it will be a rogue state with a substantial nuclear arsenal.

Pakistan's short-range nuclear strikes can be seen as a potential threat for India, and certainly interest New Delhi’s defence, diplomatic and military establishment, since they could be launched if Islamabad merely perceives the threat of an all-out invasion by the Indian military establishment.

Consequently, Kristensen suggested that even quick "surgical strikes" by India will have to make it "appear" to Pakistan as though there is no danger of an all-out pan-national aggression of Pakistan by India.

In October 2016, a Pakistan think tank sounded a warning. A study titled, "Indian un-safeguarded Nuclear programme" suggested that India has sufficient material and the technical capacity to produce between 356 and 492 nuclear bombs.

Published by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), the study is co-authored by four nuclear scholars including Adeela Azam, Ahmed Khan, Mohammad Ali and Sameer Khan.The worry that remains for India — as several attacks on Pakistani military establishments have shown — is that its nuclear arsenal could end up in the hands of Islamist terrorists.

Do these revelations indicate that Pakistan has now reached what is known as a "full-spectrum nuclear deterrent posture"?

Since Pakistan has faced several deadly terror attacks in recent times, the Nawaz Sharif government has announced a ban on two militant groups linked with the Taliban and al Qaeda for their involvement in several terror attacks across the country. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a splinter group of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, and Lashkar-i-Jhangvi Al-Alami (LeJ) were banned after the most recent attacks in Balochistan and Sindh provinces, including last week's assault at a sufi shrine in Balochistan, which killed more than 50 people. The United States had said that Pakistan needs to ensure more effective action against terror groups operating from its soil. As of now, it is being seen as a repetition of its warning to a state that has time and again sidestepped, even acted against US interests, but continues to receive its backing - strategic and financial.

Washington "recognises" the sacrifices of the people and the armed forces of Pakistan in countering terror. Every transgression is usually followed by the POTUS condemning it and emphasising that Islamabad must take effective action against terrorist groups.

However, neither has Pakistan's policy of using terror as an instrument of terror policy changed nor has US's bankrolling of Pakistan ceased. What a Democratic POTUS could not do may have been left for a Republican POTUS to sort out, with the support of a Republican Congress more amenable to its president's views.

Pakistan's all-weather ally China ensures political backing for all its transgressions and the future POTUS will have to look into the ramifications of helping Pakistan in a sub-continental situation, where almost all terror emanates from the state, as well as the consequences of willy-nilly pushing China's agenda in deference to its own in South Asia.