Can North Korea trigger World War III?
Is the world staring at the third World War with major powers of today getting involved? Well, can’t be ruled out. There’s only one theatre volatile enough to trigger it.
No it’s not a possible conflict between Asia's nuclear weapon states - India-Pakistan or India-China. Global powers are unlikely to get sucked if such conflicts were to erupt.
Europe too is an unlikely theatre. The Crimea crisis three and a half years ago proved it. When Russia annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014 it was the biggest threat to the West and yet the war drums did not beat. Europe is comparatively stable and the spheres of influence of rival powers are neatly drawn with a low volatility quotient.
West Asia too has a similar story. Though the West Asia cauldron has been simmering for decades the region has thus far witnessed controlled aggression and tensions have remained well under control.
The common factor in the examples quoted above is that none of the trouble spots in these regions is governed by a psychotic despot. This is the only and surely the biggest difference that separates this most probable trigger of third World War from all other current trouble spots. The leader of this country is a despot and probably a megalomaniac as his actions over the past few years suggest.
Yes, this county’s name is North Korea, ruled by Kim Jong-un since December 28, 2011, the day he became the supreme leader after the death of his predecessor and father Kim Jong-il.
The reason why the spectre of third World War is being raised is because of unusual aggression displayed by this man over the past few months which reached a climactic phase on September 15, when his country fired another intercontinental missile over Japan and South Korea launched its own in response, taking the tensions to a new high. Major stakeholders like Japan, South Korea and the US strongly and swiftly condemned North Korea's latest provocation. Only yesterday, Pyongyang had threatened to sink Japan and reduce the United States to "ashes and darkness" for supporting eighth set of UN sanctions against North Korea unanimously approved by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) three days before.
South Korea, the most affected and vulnerable party to North Korea’s muscle-flexing, immediately ordered its military to conduct a live-fire ballistic missile drill and President Moon Jae-in held a meeting of the National Security Council. South Korea will inevitably deploy more Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile launchers.
US defence secretary Jim Mattis called the attack a "reckless act", and Japan condemned it saying Tokyo will never tolerate North Korea’s "provocative" acts.
This wasn’t the first provocation nor is it likely to be the last. But the provocation has been incremental over the past few months and that is precisely what is keeping the international community on tenterhooks.
For example, on September 3, Kim Jong-un ordered a sixth nuclear test, which was claimed to be an advanced hydrogen bomb for a long-range missile. On August 29, Pyongyang launched an intermediate range Hwasong-12 over Japan, which reached a height of 500 metres and landed 1,800 km east of Hokkaido’s prefecture. Worst, Kim rubbed it in further and said it was a “stern warning” for the US and showed that the US is within striking distance. On July 28, North Korea "successfully" tested an ICBM to prove its ability to strike US mainland and Kim pushed the envelope by saying that it could even bring New York into range.
India has condemned the latest act of provocation from North Korea and also raised the issue at length with Japan at the recent Indo-Japan annual summit in Gandhinagar. The Russian reaction was more colourful. President Vladimir Putin, while condemning North Korea’s nuclear test, warned countries (read the US) against using military force against Pyongyang.
But the most important reaction is from China, North Korea’s only ally. It not only “strongly condemned” North Korea’s conduct, but also asked Pyongyang to “denuclearize”. China realises that the US may get militarily involved right in its backyard not for North Korea, but for China itself.
There is a veritable danger that North Korea may trigger the next world war, not so much because of Pyongyang's hatred towards Washington but because of the fact that it’s ruled by a dictator who is unpredictable and probably sick.
Nuclear weapons in his hands is like handing over a razor to a monkey.