Nitish Kumar may not even get time to cut his own birthday cake

Nitish Kumar has the opportunity and the reason to celebrate for a week - from February 22 when he will sworn in as Bihar's 34th chief minister - to March 1 when he will turn 64. But, Nitish Kumar knows this time it will be anything but  about cake and roses.   

Having been crowned thrice before, everyone expects him to hit the ground running and deliver instantly like two-minute noodles, but Nitish Kumar must also be aware that taking over would be easier than taking off.

Even before what he does, or who he inducts in his council; it is "where" he is making his beginning from that provides the proof of the pressure that Nitish Kumar is grappling with.  

Governor Tripathi will administer Nitish the oath of the office at Patna Raj Bhawan on Sunday evening - unlike his November 2010 grand swearing-in ceremony at Gandhi Maidan that was held after an alliance led by him  registered the biggest ever victory in Bihar, bagging 206 seats in the 243 member Bihar Assembly.

Even in May 2014, Nitish almost made his crushing Lok Sabha poll immaterial, as he assumed a martyr role and stood tall by relinquishing power in favour of Maha Dalit leader, Jitan Ram Manjhi.

Nitish Kumar had then made a big issue when he picked Manjhi as his successor, presenting his credentials as the biggest benefactor of the Maha Dalits, which he had classified as a separate category.

By the same yardstick, Nitish now runs the risk of being dubbed as anti-Maha Dalit for forcing Manjhi's ouster. That the Maha Dalits, estimated about 20 per cent of the population, would have added up to a substantial vote block of Nitish-Lalu. But Manjhi look set to position himself against team Nitish.

No wonder, now just seven months before the Assembly polls, Nitish Kumar will find it difficult to shake off the taint of throwing out the Maha Dalit leader to become chief minister again. Even Lalu Prasad, the master bluster, has largely remained tight-lipped on this changeover. He knows the more he speaks; the bigger would be Dalit anger.

Nitish Kumar has a mountain to climb, trying to win back the numerically preponderant Dalits, who are simmering at Manjhi's ouster. A grand swearing in would have nettled them even more. Nitish knows he may not control the damage; but his simple swearing-in at Raj Bhawan may minimise their wrath.The way Nitish lieutenants, including state JD(U) president Vashishtha Narayan Singh and party chief whip Shrawan Kumar have started appeasing Manjhi, calling him Subah Ka bhoola , who should return to his home, it seems clear that 70-year-old Maha-Dalit leader from Gaya, a friend who turned into foe, has got under Nitish Kumar's skin.

A struggling Nitish Kumar was beyond imagination when the Vidhan Sabha was constituted nearly five years ago. In November, 2010, Nitish Kumar was riding the high moral horse. He could do no wrong. That was the time when Nitish steamrolled all opposition through sheer strength of goodwill and hope, striding across Bihar, breaking traditional caste icons and destroying the Yadav kingdom. The common Bihari voters, furious at the fraudulent slogans of secularism and social justice and those who preached them ad nauseam, handed Nitish a huge mandate that was never given to anyone in Bihar.

Though the UPA government at the Centre was still strong then, and Rahul Gandhi was still carried the aura of the morning breeze; fresh and promising, his party Congress could bag just four seats and lost the other 239 they contested from. Lalu Yadav was reduced to his lowest tally of 22 seats.  Such was Nitish Kumar's goodwill that Bihar betrayed almost an unreasonable loyalty for him. Even the Muslims voted for his alliance partner BJP then, helping the saffron party elect its first ever Muslim MLA in Bihar. It was brand Nitish that had delivered for BJP as well.

Now, little over four years later, within the tenure of the same Vidhan Sabha, the ground realities have changed.  Though Nitish Kumar today has a greater number of alliance partners-with RJD, Congress, CPI and independents backing his government-but fewer seats and perhaps lesser following.

Since 2010, by stitching an electoral deal with Lalu Prasad-against whose "Jungle Raj" and non-governance he was handed the massive majority in 2005 and had 2010-Nitish Kumar has so clearly begun to imitate the politics of caste; and runs the risk of symbolising the decay that was once was synonymous with Lalu Prasad and Congress.

Though Nitish Kumar does not face corruption charges like his convicted friend, there is a growing perception that he too has become an unscrupulous opportunist who could join hands with everyone to keep his head above the water.

Nitish can deliver good governance in the next seven months; but he also has to battle the perception that his government, though backed by Lalu Prasad, would be different from what the RJD Chief or his wife unleashed in Bihar.  

On March 1, 2014, his 63rd birthday, Nitish Kumar and his supporters were photographed beating a metal plate with a small hammer to protest against the Centre denying special category status. This birthday, Nitish may not publically touch any utensil, surely not to serve supporters with his birthday cake.