Everybody believes Nitish Kumar when he says he had no inkling BJP would support him
At 10am on July 27, Nitish Kumar was administered the oath of office as the chief minister of Bihar - it was the sixth time he took the oath. A mere 12 hours before that he had resigned as the chief minister, dumping his Mahagathbandhan allies - the RJD and the Congress - only to climb back on the chair with a different partner from the past, the BJP.
Explaining the reasons behind his decision to walk out of the Grand Alliance, Janata Dal (U) president and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar on August 22, insisted that the BJP offered its support to him the day he resigned, and not earlier. He said everything happened in "quick time" and that he had not thought about going back to the NDA.
Nitish said, "Believe it or not, I had not expected the BJP to offer support even while going to Raj Bhavan to tender my resignation as CM on July 26 evening."
But the pace of "operation hop over" took everyone by surprise. Contrary to Nitish’s claim, RJD chief Lalu Prasad said Nitish Kumar's resignation was "pre-planned". So who is speaking the truth? Was it all pre-planned? Or was some of it planned and the rest happened by chance? And if things were pre-planned, when did the planning process start?
First, let us look at events in those crucial 12 hours between Nitish's resignation and his oath-taking.
6.51pm: Nitish Kumar resigns.
7.09pm: PM Narendra Modi tweets praising Nitish for taking a strong step against corruption.
7.20pm: BJP parliamentary meeting begins.
8.58pm: Nitish Kumar responds to PM Modi’s tweet and thanks him for supporting his decision.
9.01pm: Senior BJP leader (now deputy CM) Sushil Modi says that the BJP has decided to support Nitish.
9.29pm: The BJP holds a legislative party meet.
9.51pm: JDU-BJP MLAs meet at Nitish Kumar’s residence.
01.35am: A letter of support carrying the signatures of 132 MLAs submitted to the governor
10am: Nitish Kumar sworn in as CM again.
Now here is a question - was it possible to arrange all of this, organise and pull off the entire act in just 12 hours? The answer simply has to be a no. How is it that all MLAs of JDU and BJP were in town that day for the meeting?
How is it that a caretaker governor of the state was also in town during those important hours?
How is it that a parliamentary board meeting started within two hours of Nitish Kumar’s resignation?
One or two events can be a coincidence but such a string of coincidences is a bit hard to digest. The BJP and JDU may well be painting it as only happenstance but a closer look at the political development proves that wasn’t the case.
In November 2016, a report in the Hindi daily Navbharat Times said, "Nitish Kumar and Amit Shah met in Delhi". According to the report, the meeting took place on November 1, at a farmhouse in Gurugram. And the meeting was arranged by election strategist, Prashant Kishor, who has been close to both the leaders. This report made Nitish Kumar furious.
Refuting it, he had said: "I never met Amit Shah. It appears the newspaper invented the news and only the reporter who filed the story can confirm or deny. He must tell when and where did I meet Amit Shah. Did I meet him at the reporter’s farm house?"
While Nitish refuted that report as a manufactured story, eight days after that purported “meeting’ with Shah and just one day after demonetisation, Nitish was the first big opposition leader to support Modi's demonetisation.
On November 9, Nitish said, "In the initial days, people may face some difficulties due to the centre's decision but it will, by and large, benefit the country. It is my understanding that the country's economy will benefit from the Centre's decision, hence I welcome and support it."
A few days later, Shah lauded Nitish for his support to demonetisation. It was the first time that the BJP chief publicly appreciated the JDU chief's stand.
During the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, Shah had infamously said, "Agar BJP galti se bhi Bihar me haarti hai to jay-parajay to Bihar me hogi, pataake Pakistan me chhutenge (If BJP, by mistake, loses in Bihar, while the victory and defeat will take place in Bihar, crackers will be burst in Pakistan)."
And hitting out at Modi, Nitish Kumar had said, "The person who he has made the party chief (Amit Shah) spent seven months in jail himself."
Recalling Shah’s statement about Prime Minister Modi’s promise of bringing back black money stashed abroad, Nitish had said it was mere "jumla (platitude)". At that time Nitish coined a new name for the BJP. He said, "People will now call it 'Bhartiya Jumla Party'. I even saw an advertisement which described it as 'Bada Jhootha Party'."
But after the November 1, 2016 meeting, the tone and tenor of both the leaders changed. Nitish became part of the committee set up to celebrate Deen Dayal Upadhyaya’s birth centenary. Even the increasing bonhomie between Nitish and Modi was unmistakable on several occasions.
In January, both were seen talking to each other and sharing a laugh during the Prakash Parv celebrations. Later both had good things to say about each other.
Recently, Nitish had skipped an opposition meeting in Delhi, but did not miss the lunch hosted by Modi. Breaking ranks with the opposition, Nitish supported the NDA’s presidential candidate.
The alleged meeting between Amit Shah and Nitish Kumar, the one that Nitish so vehemently denied ever took place, seems to have been the turning point in the relationship between the BJP and the JDU. Knowing Shah's penchant for Machiavellian moves coupled with his organisational skills, the script for the political drama in Bihar must have been in the making from November 2016 itself.
And kudos to all the actors who made it such a success on stage where it was enacted in front of the entire country with utmost precision in those 12 hours.
Amit Shah is a master strategist who can spend 268 days to plan a move that is executed in 12 hours, diminishing a political opposition that had no inkling of what hit them and how. And Nitish seems to have played his role with perfection, in this strategy.