Nepal PM in India: Focus must be on deliverables, not photo-ops
Nearly a year ago on September 21, addressing a mass meeting of the top three parties in Nepal's Tundikhel, Pushpa Kamal Dahal announced: "Only countries that respect our independence can protect their own independence. I hope India and China will show special respect to this achievement."
The then former prime minister hailed the promulgation of the new Nepali constitution as an achievement "heralding a people's era". Amid applause, he reminded India to pay heed to Nepal's concerns and added, "We want to be India's friend, not yes man."
Back to the top job of prime minister for the second term, as Pushpa Kamal Dahal returns to Delhi on an official visit, both sides will look at ways of putting misunderstandings of the recent past behind and forge a relationship based on trust and respect.
New Delhi is rolling out the red carpet for him and the Nepali PM will stay in the Guest Wing of Rashtrapati Bhawan as its official guest. After months of lows, with Kathmandu blaming Delhi for backing the Madhesi protests and for an economic blockade, close observers of power dynamics say the vibes are positive at the moment.
But Kathmandu's internal challenges will be crucial to resolving the external ones as well, especially vis a vis India. And moving the relationship from rhetoric to substantive will need much work together.
Internal consensus key to external relations
At that Tundikhel rally, the once feared Maoist guerrilla fighter popular by his nom de guerre "Prachanda", chose to hail a constitution seen as discriminatory by a large population of janjatis, the Madhesis .
The promulgation led to months of violence, agitations and bloodshed in the country. Known for advocating rights of marginalised sections in his jungle war days, when asked by a diplomat recently "why he gave up on his principles', Prachanda reportedly said: "We thought having a constitution was better than not having one. We believed we could resolve the issues later."
But Prachanda, no stranger to power moves, now realises the amendments will remain an uphill battle. Any amendment in parliament would require a two-thirds majority which his party, in coalition with the Nepali Congress (NC) and backed by the Madhesis, does not enjoy.
His predecessor KP Oli, who had to step down after Prachanda's CPN(M-C) pulled out of the coalition, still has 175 members in the opposition benches. And Oli remains popular, flaunting his apparent martyrdom and anti-India card.
Prachanda, who under a power-sharing agreement has to hand over the chair to NC's Sher Bahadur Deuba in nine months, will have to find a way for consensus.
Focus on peace and stability and dialogue with stakeholders must be top priority. His cabinet has made some right moves by clearing rollback of cases against some agitators, medical compensations to the injured and declaring some as martyrs.
But implementation will be key for restoration of faith. At least an amendment towards core contentions will have to be registered before the fire restarts.
Neighbourhood first - actions speak louder than words
India has maintained that it never backed the Madhesi andolan. Rather, its interest lies only in a stable Nepal, since it shares open borders with it and a burning Terai will impact both neighbours adversely. But this argument is not convincing enough, given Singha Durbar's history with Dilli Durbar.
New Delhi has to introspect the recent blockade and its consequences. And recalibrate its approach to prove its "neighbourhood-first" policy.
The nationalism card played by certain sections of Nepali leaders finds resonance for a reason. Prachanda learnt a lesson the hard way when his last innings as PM came to an abrupt end as he messed with the country's army that is an extended family to India.
Even when Oli went down, the message was his growing proximity to Beijing triggered his fall and India checkmated him. Decades long suspicion of Big Brother India meddling in a small neighbour's internal political process needs allaying, not strengthening.
Constitutional amendments will remain Nepal's internal process and even as India nudges for genuine concerns to be addressed, it must not invest all its eggs into the Terai basket.
Importantly, as new foreign minister Prakash Sharan Mahat on his recent Delhi visit said: "The two sides must resolve issues through diplomatic channels and not through public discussions or debates."
He added: "There is a need to introspect the blockade. And our efforts must be to move forward, not backward," expressing a maturity in the new government's tone and tenor that must be reciprocated by Delhi.
Tangible outcomes more important than handshakes
As India and Nepal move towards resetting ties, trade and energy will be key to normalising the relationship in the long term. There have been intensive engagements over the last few weeks, with Delhi playing host to Nepal's deputy prime minister and foreign minister ahead of Prachanda's visit.
The joint commission at the level of foreign ministers is slated to meet soon. President Pranab Mukherjee is all set to visit Kathmandu after Diwali, even as Chinese President Xi Jinping's expected visit to Nepal remains uncertain.
But simply handshakes and photo opportunities will not produce tangible outcomes on the ground. The broad agreements for 6,800MW of hydropower development that have been signed need fast implementation. The 5,000MW Pancheshwar Project needs fast-tracking. India needs to explore a faster route for Nepal to export power.
The Upper Karnali project is stuck without a taker for lack of cross-border power policy clarity in India. The 1800km postal road project in Terai has faced massive delays. With a new contractor now, and India as a consultant, it still awaits take-off.
As foreign minister Mahat recently met with Indian energy minister Piyush Goel, the latter suggested, "Let the ministers engage through video conferencing every month. Let bureaucracy not be a hindrance to implementation of projects."
Ordinary people of Nepal, still struggling with the slow pace of reconstruction post the killer earthquake of 2015, do not want to hear of meetings anymore.
They want visible outcomes on issues that impact their lives, including energy, connectivity, and trade. Scarred by a decade-long civil war, the Nepali are yet to come to terms with truth and reconciliation. And what they can do without is more political lies and deceit.
Respect and trust - the two-way traffic
In his latest role, Prachanda, according to official sources, now has a deeper realisation of India's importance for his country. The historical, cultural, geographical roti-beti relationship that Nepal enjoys with India is unique.
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| PM Narendra Modi with his former Nepali counterpart KP Oli. (Photo credit: Reuters) |
And despite its might, China cannot replace India, as was proved during the recent blockade when supply of essential items and fuel into Nepal was cut off. But India too must realise that Nepal despite its size deserves dignity.
In his first bilateral visit to Kathmandu, a first by an Indian PM in 17 years, amid thunderous applause in Nepal's new constituent assembly, Narendra Modi won hearts and minds.
He said, "It is not our work to interfere in what you do, but to support you in all your decisions."
The huge goodwill of that visit was sadly lost soon. But by delivering on the promised HIT formula of Highways-Infoways-Transways, India can regain ground.
While Prachanda will have to do a tightrope walk between the elephant and the dragon, India too will have to maintain the thin line between nudging and pushing.
With improved atmospherics as the two countries manoeuvre through future pitfalls, it will be in India's interest to have a friend in Kathmandu, and not just a yes man.