How Nepal’s election results will influence its ties with India and China
In Nepal, the initial counting of parliamentary and provincial elections is showing a big win for the Left alliance of KP Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led (Prachanda-led) Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre). Although the concrete picture is likely to emerge only after a day or two from now, the Left shift is unlikely to change. The ruling Nepali Congress, as well as pro-monarchy parties, is set to lose badly but the alliance of Madhesi parties will do fairly good.
Going by the recent electoral history of Nepal, election alliances are not immutable. They make and break in the matter of days. Occasionally, even in hours.
Traditionally, in Nepal, the single largest party has fewer chances of forming the government than the distant third or fourth. As a compromise, the first two parties have often offered the third to lead the government. Since 2008, the party with the lesser number of seats in Parliament (previously the Constituent Assembly) had formed the government more often than the party with more seats.
In 2008, Prachanda-led Nepal Communist Party (United Maoist) emerged as the single largest party in the Constituent Assembly but could not remain in power for long. Just after eight months, Prachanda had to resign after differences with then president Ram Baran Yadav. UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal formed the government with the support of the Nepali Congress and Madhesi parties.
UML was the distant third party in the CA but formed the government twice in the short span of four years. In the second CA, which was formed for two years in 2015, the third largest party— Maoist — was in the government from the beginning to the end. At first, it aligned with the UML and then with the Nepali Congress.
So even if the Congress loses badly, it cannot be said for sure that it won’t be able to form the government or have say in it. The Prachanda-led Maoist party has no ideological compulsion. Beginning with UML, the party has aligned with all the big and small parties of Nepal from different and even contradictory ideologies since 2008.
Once it formed the government with the royalist rightwing Rastriya Prajatantra Party, the very ideology it fought in the decade-long civil war. So it won’t be very difficult for the Nepali Congress to negotiate with Prachanda post election.
Deuba and Prachanda
In the last two years, Prachanda and Deuba had worked as a team. They kept their promise and worked in unison to fulfil the constitutional directives. It was only after the election date was declared that the parties separated. The separation wasn’t due to disagreement but for poll management.
Today, KP Oli is the tallest leader in Nepal. The astute leader is able to fill in the nationalist vacuum left by the monarchy. During his short tenure, he dared India as nobody since the end of monarchy. He stands for everything that is against the ethos of democracy: national chauvinism, xenophobia and majoritarianism. Prachanda did the right thing by going with him. As the trends suggest, he has begun to reap the fruits already.
Post-poll scenario
Currently, there are two visible post-poll scenarios. One, the Left alliance makes a swipe but Prachanda has lesser number of seats and thus weakened bargaining power.
In such situation, formation of a long due stable government will be highly possible. Nepali Congress will not be able to play one party against another. Even the pro monarchy parties will have to accept the republic as the reality. The discussion or debate on the future of monarchy will be put to rest for ever.
Madhesi parties will not have proper representation leading to another period of political uncertainty in the region. Contradiction with India will rise and China will have strong presence. Plain-Hill divide will also sharpen.
Prachanda will not be able to assert himself. He has to settle as per the pre-election deal because breaking the alliance will mean midterm election. No party will want to have elections in such short intervals. Lastly, in few years, ULM and Maoist will merge to form a new party.
Scenario number two: the Left alliance wins big but the Nepali Congress gets influential numbers.
In such situation, the Left alliance will break in a matter of days. The Nepali Congress will offer Prachanda premiership in exchange of breaking the alliance with the UML as it did in 2016. Prachanda is likely to accept the offer. This government will stand the chance of lasting until the next general election. Pro-monarchy voices will become stronger. On the positive side, the Madhesi parties will have better representation and a possible peaceful solution to the Madhesi crisis.
India will have stronger influence. It could press for ratification of past treaties and nullifying pacts with China signed during KP Oli’s premiership.
These are the two most likely scenarios. All the post-poll manoeuvring will be centred on these two possibilities and they will have a long lasting stamp in the political future of this strategically important Himalayan nation.