Modi in Maghar: Will PM's gambit to woo Dalits sway 2019 polls in BJP's favour?
Facing stiff opposition from the coming together of Mayawati's BSP and Akhilesh Yadav's SP in Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose to launch the BJP's poll campaign for 2019 from Sant Kabir Nagar in UP.
The Prime Minister not just offered flowers at Kabir's samadhi in the town of Maghar, but also a chadar at the saint's mazaar, to mark his 500th death anniversary. Modi also laid the foundation stone of an academy to highlight the saint's teachings and thought.
Speaking at a public rally in Maghar, the PM attacked the opposition parties, saying: "Those who always talk of 'samajwad' and 'bahujan' are extremely selfish. They don't see the welfare of society but only the welfare of themselves and their families."
On the backfoot, after the drubbings the BJP has received at the hands of the united opposition in the recently concluded UP by-polls, Modi invoked the poet-saint to hit out at the caste coalition. "Sant Kabir broke the shackles of the caste system in India. It was due to the efforts of such great saints that India continued to progress despite numerous difficulties," said PM Modi.
Taking an apparent dig at Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati over their official bungalow row, Modi said these leaders are only interested in saving their own bungalows, not providing housing for the poor.
Maghar, around 200 km from Varanasi, PM Modi's Lok Sabha constituency, was once superstitiously believed to be the "highway to hell". Kabir fought against the long-held belief that dying in this town led a person to hell, while "moksha" could only be attained in Varanasi. He chose to breathe his last here to break this belief.
Kabir, who spoke against the caste system, has long been revered by the Dalits and the backward castes. The poet-saint is also held in high esteem by the minorities — especially the weaver community — who believe the saint's father was a Muslim weaver.
With an eye on the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, the BJP would hope the followers of the revered saint — especially Dalits and backward castes — would be swayed in its favour.
Wooing the Dalits — The Sant Kabir card
Former Uttar Pradesh CM Mayawati announced the creation of Sant Kabir Nagar district — carved out of Basti — in 1997, during her second tenure.
The BJP stormed to power in 2014 riding on its massive electoral sweep in Uttar Pradesh, where the party won 73 (71+2 seats of its allies) seats out of the total 80 on offer.
This pushed the party to the pole position, with a national tally of 282 seats.
The massive win was only possible due to the consolidation of votes along religious lines. The aftermath of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and subsequent polarisation, together with the elevation of the then-Gujarat CM Narendra Modi — considered the 'Hindu hriday samrat' — as BJP's PM candidate, brought together different caste groups to vote overwhelmingly for the party.The party was able to ensure that the voters in the state, long fragmented along caste lines, and supporting regional parties like the SP, BSP and RLD catering to different caste groups, vote as a Hindu monolithic bloc.
The ruling party is well aware that the recent spate of unbridled crimes against the Dalits has alienated the community from the BJP. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's 2015 statement, calling for a review of the reservation policy, has also not gone down well with the community, which feels that the ruling party is using its massive electoral mandate to push its upper caste agenda. Incidents of violence at the hands of upper castes has added to the fear. Clashes like the one at Bhima Koregaon have further fulled this narrative. With the 2014 UP tally looking like a distant dream now, the BJP as well as its parent organisation, the RSS, have gone into damage control mode.
In a well-thought out strategy, the RSS has instructed the BJP and its ministers to go on a massive Dalit outreach to allay such fears and get the community back into its fold.
According to the 2011 caste census, Uttar Pradesh has a 40 per cent OBC, 21.2 per cent Dalit and 19.26 per cent Muslim population.
The coming together of these caste groups under the umbrella of the grand opposition alliance of the SP, BSP and the RLD has already ensured the BJP's defeat in the recently concluded by-polls. The party understands its success in UP hinges on breaking this alliance now.
The BJP hopes its decision to start the party's poll campaign from Sant Kabir Nagar would send a major signal to the Dalit community — that the party cares for them and the previous governments have not done enough for them. It would also hope to highlight the corruption in the previous SP, BSP regimes, something the PM touched upon in his speech.
Nationalism: The trump card
The PM's speech at Maghar, coming on the heels of the release of the surgical strikes video, bares the BJP's game plan of using nationalism as the ace plank in its election strategy.
The 2016 surgical strikes against Pakistan went well with PM Modi's promises of punishing Pakistan for its terror support from across the border. While the opposition Congress questioned the veracity of the claim at the time, the timing of the video's release would also help the BJP paint the Congress as "anti-army". Party spokespersons have already started speaking about how the principal opposition party has been demoralising the armed forces.
The party's decision to walk out of its alliance with the PDP in Jammu and Kashmir is also part of the same strategy. The BJP would hope this would give it a free hand in taking tough decisions as far as taking on militants in the Valley is concerned, something that would please its right-wing gallery.
The BJP would also be able to up the rhetoric against Pakistan, which brought it rich political dividends in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when it accused the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government of going soft on terror.
Having made tall promises of development, the BJP knows it has little of substance to show as far as achievements in its four year-tenure is concerned. The nationalism debate would be a convenient diversion for people asking for a report card from the Modi government.
With promises of "achhe din" still a distant dream, Narendra Modi knows the only way to ensure a fighting chance for the BJP in 2019 is to divide the opposition vote bank. The party hopes to win back the Dalits, tribals and backward castes that supported it in 2014.
Already facing anti-incumbency, and a revolt from several of its allies, the party hopes issues like nationalism will unite voters behind it. It would also serve as another excuse to attack the opposition parties, and paint them as anti-nationals.
Both the BJP and the RSS are pinning their final hopes on Narendra Modi — and the electoral engineering of Amit Shah. While Modi's personal stock might have been the secret ingredient that powered the BJP to earlier electoral success, the party knows it is caste politics, plus the patriotism card, that will be the final game changer for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.