Why has PM Modi held fewer rallies in the five states going to polls: Numbers tell an interesting tale

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known for turning the tide in the BJP’s favour before elections with his campaigning. We saw it during the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, and in many subsequent Assembly elections — the Modi wave was always a differentiator.

But that, it seems, is not the case anymore. 

Assembly elections are being held in five states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telengana and Mizoram. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have long-running BJP governments. In Telangana and Mizoram, going by the last election results, BJP is not a major party.  

The elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are a close contest between BJP and its main opponent Congress, and the BJP is fighting a neck-and-neck battle to save its governments. A Modi wave here would have certainly been useful in helping the governments beat anti-incumbency and the other challenges they are facing.

But if we go by the rallies organised for the PM in the states, we find the larger Narendra Modi factor missing.

Except Telangana, elections in these states were last held in 2013. The Telangana Assembly polls were held with the General Elections. In the period, Modi was on a major campaign spree for the Lok Sabha polls.

Cut to 2018.

In Chhattisgarh, elections were held on November 12 and November 20. Modi addressed just four rallies in the state. Contrast that to Haryana, where Assembly elections were held in October 2014. Both states have 10 Lok Sabha and 90 Assembly seats. Prime Minister Modi had held 10 rallies in Haryana, and the BJP had won with a thumping majority. But with Chhattisgarh, there are chances that the party may lose its long hold on power here.

Similar is the case with Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

In Madhya Pradesh, where voting was held on November 28, Modi held 10 rallies. He is expected to hold a similar number of rallies in Rajasthan, where polling is on December 7.  

Thus, despite the close fight it has with the Congress, the BJP has not gone all out with its star campaigner in these states. 

In Telangana, where elections have been preponed to December 7, Modi is going to address three rallies. BJP is not a major player here, and by organising the PM’s rallies, the party is trying to send out a message that it is a serious political contender in the state.

In Mizoram, which went to polls on November 28, Narendra Modi held an election rally on November 23. The BJP has surged ahead in the North-East, and Mizoram is the only state still with the Congress — in all other states, the BJP is in power either alone or with allies. This time, it can wrest Mizoram from the Congress, but that would not really an endorsement of Modi’s charisma.

So, is the BJP being cautious in utilising Narendra Modi’s popularity this time, as a negative outcome could affect its chances in the 2019 polls?

Going over the recent past, we can definitely see it happening.

Modi held 34 rallies in Gujarat, but the results for BJP were not as expected. Though the party formed the government, it could win only 99 seats — the least since it formed the government in 1995, and far less than Amit Shah’s prediction of 150 seats. On the other hand, Congress won 77 seats — a big leap, and a 22-year-old high since 1995, when it had won 45 seats. 

Also, saying that the BJP got more votes than Congress is a poor defence. 

The BJP got 49.1% vote share in Gujarat, up from 47.9% in 2012. It was 8% more than Congress’ 41.4%, which had also seen an increase of 2%. But the BJP’s vote share in the Assembly polls was a huge dip from the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, where it had got 59.1% votes. So, comparing it with the Congress’ tally doesn’t erase questions over Modi’s paling popularity.   

Even more important was the outcome of the Karnataka Assembly elections.

The BJP was fighting to replace the Congress government in the state. Narendra Modi held 21 rallies here. In fact, the BJP increased the number of Modi’s rallies from 15 to 21 in the state — but still could not get clear numbers. Despite the saffron party’s Yeddyurappa trying to form the government, he ultimately had to give way to the Congress-JD(S) alliance.

Also read: How Raj Babbar has always been a motormouth and Congress has taken it in its stride