5 reasons why Modi lost Bihar
The unexpected rout of the NDA in Bihar, with the alliance securing only 58 Assembly seats to the Grand Alliance's score of 158, was a consequence of many issues and policies.
1. The loss of memory: Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, the RSS and others of the Sangh Parivar, forgot the more liberal policies of stalwarts like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. Vajpayee cultivated a liberal and multicultural image despite his role in the Babri Masjid demolition. Under Modi, the lunatic fringe became part of the BJP leadership. Shah equated a Nitish Kumar victory with a Pakistani victory. Modi repeatedly claimed gerrymandering was being done by shifting five per cent of the OBC reservation to a "religious community", namely the Muslims. But the prize for the most disastrous comment of the decade goes to Mohan Bhagwat for his open rejection of reservation.
2. Modi turned a state election into a national election: He took credit for development schemes and disbursal of funds to Bihar. But when the electorate saw some 16 helicopters on NDA campaigns they were skeptical. It was alright for the busy prime minister to take to the air, but certainly not for minor leaders to campaign from the sky. Worse, with Modi emphasising his predominant role, the onus for rising prices, from onions to dal, shifted from Nitish to the prime minister.
3. The role of women: The Nitish government's policy of educating women free till BA, reserving posts for them, providing bicycles for them to travel to schools/colleges greatly increased their mobility and their empowerment. Observers found that though women were escorted to the booths by NDA activists, they overwhelmingly voted for the Grand Alliance. The fact that about five per cent more women than men voted in every round was, for many of us, a clear indication that the Nitish factor, apart from the Lalu factor, was likely to be predominant.
4. The caste factor: Neither Ram Vilas Paswan nor Jitan Ram Manjhi, or even both together, are dominant figures in Dalit communities. Pappu Yadav is a very minor Yadav leader, his fearsome record notwithstanding. The upper castes are a small minority. So the fact that the caste alliance favoured the Grand Alliance has been known for quite some time. Fond projections that Lalu was a discredited force, and the Muslim-Yadav alliance was weakened were obviously untrue.
5. Public and lavish use of resources: Modi outspent Nitish by over 20:1 and even more in advertisements in the compliant media. The media, in the main, especially the electronic media, backed the NDA. The media believed Modi, and Modi believed the media. It was a cycle of misinformation. The people on the ground had a more accurate assessment, and were proven right. The media spoke to the wrong people, and did not spend enough time in the rural areas.
What does this mean? Firstly, Modi can say goodbye to a Rajya Sabha majority in the foreseeable future. So NDA's Bills will have to be made more acceptable. The sheen of the Modi sarkar, and especially Modi himself and BJP president Amit Shah, has substantially diminished. There will be more resistance to the arbitrary commands from the Union government, starting from Delhi and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). In fact, Modi should have learned from the AAP campaign. On the positive size, Modi will now have more time to think through his policies and campaigns, if he has time between his foreign visits.