Only Modi stands to gain from surgical attack on Pakistan

India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will not be able to return to "normal business" soon even though DGMO Lt Gen Ranbir Singh declared on Thursday that the Army was resting its oars after the surgical strikes.

Yet, Modi can ignore his "unfinished agenda" at his own peril. Let’s not forget, despite brouhaha and claims that the 56-inch chest had added the numeral "1" in the beginning; in the larger context of the threat to India’s security from Pakistan-based terrorists, the "achievement" of the strikes is extremely limited. At best, it has given India a psychological advantage, but building upon this would push India into unknown territory.

General Singh declared that “launch pads” had been neutralised. Within the framework of cross-border terrorism, such centres used to initiate actual assaults are the most inconsequential part of the terrorist command chain. However large the fatalities on the other side of the LoC may have been, India and its people cannot lose sight of the fact that these were not “terror camps” from where the leadership plan and plot jihad against India.

These camps were also not training centres where either mercenaries or disgruntled youth were instructed in ways of conducting terrorist strikes.

Unless the Indian government presents evidence – or even make claims – that the neutralised terrorists and their handlers were leaders of significance, the truth will remain that we have accounted for just a few score of foot soldiers. Believing that the strikes solved India’s problems in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere, they would be nothing less than being delusional.

TV channels may be on the overdrive, playing prompted lines by widows of the Uri attack that they want Osama Bin Laden-style operations. But the truth is that Thursday’s strikes will possibly be judged by history as neutralisation of minions.

The gains of Thursday’s strike have to be accounted for what they have achieved. Modi surely cocked a snook at Rawalpindi, where the General Headquarters of Pakistan Army is located. But India must wait and anticipate the retaliation from the other side of the border. To expect the opponent not to react because they have remained in denial mode would be foolhardy.

Ceasefire between India and Pakistan on the LoC has remained fragile ever since it was unilaterally declared by Islamabad in November 2003 and accepted by India.

In the past 13 years, not only has the agreement not been formalised, but the number of violations runs into several reams if one provides the details of each of the contraventions. India has to plan for a situation where the ceasefire is called off by Pakistan. It would also be wise for Modi to evaluate the pros and cons of pressing on the accelerator and calling off the peace agreement and move its heavy guns right up to the border.

Pakistan would have expected Modi to strike after the Uri attack, given the global understanding that he is made of a different temper. Numerous reports suggested that the strikes were not one-off events on Thursday night, they were preceded by a series of strikes, possibly within 72 hours of the Uri attack. There is no way of knowing if Pakistan underestimated Modi by considering that he would not “own up” the strikes.

After all this is not the first time that India has sent Special Forces across the border and neutralised hit squads of different Pakistan-supported terror groups. It has been well documented that India conducted a series of strikes across the border in the 1990s and early 2000s to neutralise terror groups. The tactic was used by the UPA too.

What Modi has done is, however, unprecedented — he has claimed ownership. After his Kozhikode speech when he said his government was ready for a 1,000-year war with Pakistan, there was probably no other outcome.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat was, in fact, succinct in his comment: "Jo apeksha thee, woh hee hua."

Because he will risk international isolation if he presses the military gasoline; Modi will eventually try to maximise the gains politically. The biggest challenge is to get back to winning elections and — with Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand just months away from polls, Modi will attempt to leverage the surgical strikes. He will project his government as one that has delivered where his predecessors failed.

But Modi’s future strategy will be greatly determined by the response from across the border. Developments over the next few days will shape the future direction of the Modi narrative.