Why Mehbooba Mufti is afraid to take the hot seat
A look at the PDP's website makes it amply clear how keen the party has been to parade the document called Agenda for Alliance. It is basically nothing else but a fancy name given to a common minimum programme between two coalition partners. Since they have tied up with a party which is antithetical to their ideology, it is natural for PDP to emphasise on such a paper.
After all there has to be something in hardcopy to address an unsettled core constituency back home. That is why a prominent banner position on the party's portal announces the existence of this "sacred" deed.
Now let us take a look at the partner. One fails to even find a mention of Agenda for alliance both on the BJP's national website as well as on their state unit portal. Unless it has been programmed to hide itself so well that even google searches don't yield results, the document cannot be seen there. Many would argue that in an Indian setup comparing digital content and then inferring meaning is not substantial.
One would have even given in to that argument had it not been a party whose online strength helped them in decimating the Congress in the Centre.
For the PDP, Agenda for Alliance meant a lot. The printed word in this document presented itself as the hope with which the party would try to make things better. From the controversial and vexed Kashmir related political issues to a spectacular list of developmental promises, it had them all. PDP must have thought implementation of the bullet points in the document will silence all the criticism hurled at them.
But an introspection of the 10 months into the government, if not anything else must really have dashed their hopes on that front. Analysing only a few points explains why Mehbooba Mufti maybe getting cold feet to accept the chair of the chief minister. Let us take one of the first points under the political initiatives. The Agenda for Alliance clearly says that the coalition will take Atal Bihari Vajpayee's initiatives forward. It spells out the resolve to begin and facilitate a meaningful dialogue with all internal stakeholders including the Hurriyat Conference.
To be fair to Mufti Mohammad Syed, the man did try hard to recreate the Vajpayee magic. He attempted to replicate the script in exact same details for prime minister Modi's November 2015 visit which were done for Vajpayee's historic rally in 2003. His party consolidated its resources and threw all its strength in ensuring the rally was well attended. Mufti Syed even went a step further in creating the "environment" for this rally. Days ahead of the event, he started praised PM Modi at various occasions, called him the man who has the potential of changing the future of this country.
But when the day came it was clear Modi had his own way of looking at Kashmir. He did not make any offer for talks, on the contrary the prime minister went on to announce from the dais that he did not need anyone's advice in handing Kashmir. For Kashmir observers, Vajpayee's slogan of "Insaaniyat, Kashmiriyat aur Jamhooriyat" after such a statement didn't hold much value. The PDP was visibly shocked. This was a political non-starter in Kashmir context.
The prime minister, however, did shower an economic package for J&K. Did that salvage the situation for PDP? Well the answer lies in a detailed look at the package. One very important issue which was supposed to be addressed was the flood relief to those devastated by 2014 deluge. Only Rs 7,854 crore were earmarked for flood relief and management, the Omar Abdullah government had advocated for 44,000 crore.
This is not all, the finer details have left the people even more disappointed. An example comes from how flood affected traders have now realised that the Rs 800 crore which they were told would be distributed among them is actually coming as an interest subsidy for only those who have bank loans. Interestingly more than half of the affected traders say they don't have any bank loans.
When the government was formed most publicity managers of PDP had particularly pointed at this line of the Agenda for Alliance, "Explore modalities for transfer of Dulhasti and Uri hydro power projects to J&K as suggested by the Rangarajan Committee Report and the Round Table reports".
A long pending dream of being self sufficient in hydroelectricity was just about to be realised. Or atleast that is how it was presented to the people of the state. The dream, however, wasn't to be lived for long. The union power minister, Piyush Goyal while replying to PDP MP, Tariq Hamid Kara's query on power projects in Lok Sabha implied that legal and financial problems impede the return, meaning Union Power Ministry can't transfer power projects owned by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) to Jammu and Kashmir.
A non-starter alert yet again.
Riding on the urbanisation wave that has been triggered by New Delhi's much talked about "Smart Cities" concept, the coalition government in the state thought of decorating its 'tie-up' document with a promise of two smart cities each for Jammu and Srinagar. However when the national list of the chosen names for this plan came out and the state found its name missing, for a change in almost a unison pitch everyone on the two sides of the Jawahar Tunnel felt dejected.
Right from the beginning it was fairly understood that the impact of any misgiving in this alliance will come with huge costs for the PDP in Kashmir.
As for the BJP they really didn't have much at stake. The party had only one way to go which was upwards. Till June 2015, the BJP claimed to have enrolled 3.20 lakh members from the Muslim-majority Kashmir alone. The number is significant considering the fact that in the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP could not poll a total of 50,000 votes in the Valley and 33 out of its 34 candidates lost their security deposits.
Many would contest that the PDP-BJP government was in action only for about 10 months and hence it was unfair to judge them so soon.
But those who know Kashmir understand the indicators. Perhaps that is the reason why Mehbooba Mufti is reluctant to take the hot seat despite BJP's unconditional overtures. It has been around a month since her father has passed away, the delay in taking up the power position only suggests that the politician in her is evaluating it all. Going with the same arrangement yet again would mean that she is cementing the thought among her voters that PDP truly visualises a good future with BJP.
And this time it will come with added layers of perilous risk. So, for now a microscopic scrutiny of things is not such a bad option however time consuming it may seem.