Maharashtra local poll results are stamp of approval for Modi's demonetisation
It rarely happens that the Prime Minister of India tweets happily over the results of some local body elections. But on Monday evening, PM Narendra Modi took to Twitter to congratulate Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and the state BJP team over their victory in the Nagar Panchayat and Nagar Parishad polls.
The sole reason behind the PM’s delight was the timing of the election. The results came on a day when the opposition parties were busy bashing Modi over the demonetisation drive through Jan Aakrosh rallies all over the country.
As political parties questioned the impact of the demonetisation drive, particularly in rural areas, Maharashtra's results were a total contrast. With 147 Nagar Parishads and 18 Nagar Panchayats, spread across 25 districts of Maharashtra in the first phase, the elections were a matter of prestige for the BJP.
Though every other party in Maharashtra was serious about the polls, two people had the most at stake - NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and CM Devendra Fadnavis.
Talking about Fadnavis first, these were perhaps the biggest local elections in his tenure that were spread across the state. Still known as an urban party, the BJP had little presence in rural areas.
A look at the outgoing councils will give a clearer picture of where the BJP stood before the results. In 2011, the party had just 298 councillors, whereas the Congress had 771 and the NCP had 916. There were 86 councils in Maharashtra where the BJP had no representation at all, and 127 where it had less than five members. But today, of 3,705 seats, the BJP has won more than 1/3rd and jumped to a whopping 851 seats from just 298 earlier. This shows how big the success is.
But it’s not only about statistics - it’s also about the prevailing socio-political conditions in which the elections were fought.
The first was not just a challenge for Fadnavis but also for his party - the issue of demonetisation. The opposition went hammer and tongs against the BJP over the drive. It cited the hardships of farmers and those in rural areas. Many political pundits and even economists believed the curbs on district cooperative banks and primary agriculture credit societies after demonetisation were expected to hit the backbone of the rural economy, which would subsequently result in anger among voters.
But the results of the local body polls were apparently in no way a reflection of that. The BJP gained. Fadnavis went on a whirlwind campaign of poll-bound areas, addressing at least four-five rallies on a daily basis; 33 of 40 places where he addressed the rallies, people voted for the BJP. And in every rally, Fadnavis sought support from the people of rural Maharashtra for the demonetisation drive.
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| Sharad Pawar’s followers remained in a state of confusion over whether to attack the demonetisation drive or not. (Photo: Reuters) |
In one of the rallies in Ratnagiri, the CM called those who supported demonetisation as "new age freedom fighters" and those opposing it as traitors. The statement turned into a big political controversy. But everything now seems to have turned out for the good with BJP's sweeping victory.
Apart from the note ban issue, there was one more discreet factor that had the CM worried. A few months before the local body elections, Maharashtra witnessed huge protest rallies by the Maratha community, demanding reservations. Every protest march in every district headquarters saw a turnout of at least a few lakhs.
Though the protests started with demands for justice for a rape and murder victim at Kopardi in Ahmednagar, observers believed the strong mobilisation also had an undercurrent - an effort to destabilise the CM.
The politically dominant Maratha community has been at the forefront of political activity in the state. A non-Maratha CM was believed to be at the receiving end. Some leaders from even Fadnavis's own party saw this as an opportunity to dethrone the “Brahmin” CM. On top of that, the local body elections were taking place in areas where the agrarian Maratha community had a strong base.
With a comprehensive win, Fadnavis has silenced the critics who say a Brahmin face is not acceptable in rural areas.
The other person most affected by the municipal results is Sharad Pawar. Though the NCP supremo was not actively campaigning for the polls, the results will certainly leave a long lasting impression about the NCP and Pawar himself.
The factors mentioned above as crucial for Fadnavis, incidentally, remain the same for Pawar. I strongly believe Pawar hobnobbing with Modi cost him his credibility to some extent in rural Maharashtra, where he is often hailed as “Jaanata Raja” (a king who understands the plight of commoners).
The day Modi returned from Japan, he attended a function in Pune along with Pawar. Both showered praise on each other. Though the bonhomie between the two is not new, the timing of the camaraderie certainly raised a few eyebrows.
Pawar praised Modi at a time when the entire opposition was baying for his blood over demonetisation. Pawar’s followers were in a state of confusion over whether to attack the demonetisation drive or not.
Strong voices were emerging from rural Maharashtra against the drive. BJP’s ally Shiv Sena was smart enough to fill in the slot and launched a scathing attack on Modi. While the NCP was still undecided, the Shiv Sena went on to join Mamata Banerjee in her march to the President.
Pawar was now forced to take a stand, which he did in a rally in Mumbai - but by then it was too late. His supporters thought that either it was just a token protest by the NCP supremo or a U-turn. In both cases, the NCP stood to lose.
The second factor is again about the Maratha morcha that took place in the state. Pawar, who was perhaps the first big leader to jump into the issue, was again seen making a U-turn on the issue. His stand on scrapping the Atrocities Act was ambiguous, or was at least made to look ambiguous.
Many believed that given the presence of NCP leaders in the Maratha morchas, compared to leaders from other parties, the party would gain in the local body polls. But that didn’t happen. Pawar’s own stand did him in.
The municipal poll results then spoke for themselves - the NCP lost its position as the single largest party to the BJP.
The results are not mere election results for the BJP and the state CM; they are a stamp of approval, for the BJP, its demonetisation drive and Fadnavis's leadership.