Do by-poll results indicate an ebbing of Modi wave?
The by-poll results of Mungaoli and Kolaras Assembly constituencies in Madhya Pradesh declared on February 28, saw the Congress retaining both the seats.
These seats falling in the parliamentary constituency of Guna MP Jyotiraditya Scindia saw him campaigning vigorously and pulling off a hard-fought win in what was touted as the “semifinal” before the Assembly elections at the end of the year. This victory also comes on the back of the Congress winning the Chitrakoot bypoll in the state in November last year.
What was different this time around though was the massive hype around the elections and it ended up as a duel between BJP’s three-time chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Scindia on his home turf.
Apart from the chief minister himself, most cabinet ministers were deployed in these constituencies to try and wrest these seats from the Congress. In fact, Chouhan and cabinet ministers Yashodhara Scindia and Maya Singh got in trouble with the EC for their speeches and that reflected BJP’s desperation to win these seats at all costs.
These results also follow the big wins for the Congress in the by-polls in neighbouring Rajasthan. In the Ajmer and Alwar parliamentary constituencies in that state, the Congress managed a remarkable turnaround after losing badly in the 2014 general elections.
So, do these results point to an ebbing of the Modi wave?
Well, the answer to that may not be an easy one. These results come from states besieged by anti-incumbency and rural distress. The BJP will find it tough to retain Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh when these states go to polls at the end of the year, unless the prime minister decides to pull a rabbit out of the hat by advancing the general elections to coincide with these polls.
But then, the results of the Gujarat Assembly elections in December was a pointer that Brand Modi has taken a hit at least in rural India, which can make a huge difference in a pan-India elections. The BJP’s win in 2014 was a result of clean sweeps in northern and central Indian states where the non-delivery of the promised "achhe din" might come to haunt the party.
Although BJP president Amit Shah is trying to compensate for that by extending the party’s footprint in the Northeast and in the southern states, it may not be enough of a buffer.
The results of the Assembly elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura are due in a couple of days and the exit polls indicate that the BJP has made rapid strides in these states. But they will also be worried about their alliance with the Shiv Sena falling apart in Maharashtra and some significant desertions in the past few days. These weathercocks are always an indication of which way the wind is blowing and it definitely points to a shift in the mood on the ground.
What is unclear is whether the Opposition can get its act together in time and unite to take on the BJP. On current evidence, that prospect looks bleak. In 10 days’ time, by-elections to the Gorakhpur and Phulpur parliamentary constituencies (vacated by CM Adityanath and deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya) will be held in Uttar Pradesh.
Despite stitching up a last-minute alliance in the Assembly polls last year, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have gone separate ways and are contesting these polls separately. As Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party has chosen to give it a pass, it presented a golden opportunity to test the Opposition strength even as the Yogi Adityanath government is about to complete a year in office.
Finance minister Arun Jaitley’s Union Budget last month gave clear indications that the party is aware of the rural distress and massive unemployment crisis. It would be a race against time to give relief in time for the elections and the Budget announcement of the ambitious health insurance scheme covering 40 per cent of the population should take another six months to rollout.
There is unlikely to be any Modi wave a la 2014 as we head into the general elections next year and as things stand, the BJP is staring at a massive loss of seats in big states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra.
With corruption cases like 2G and Adarsh scams falling apart in courts, and demonetisation proving to be an all-round disaster, the BJP might find it tough to corner the Opposition on issues like corruption.
To compound matters further, crony capitalists have made it a habit of running away with their loot to evade the justice system in India.
Moreover, the law of diminishing returns might be finally catching up with the strategy of communal polarisation, if Alwar by-election is any indication. The BJP fielded sitting minister and Behror MLA Jaswant Singh Yadav from the constituency to try and polarise voters around cow protection. Pehlu Khan was lynched to death in Behror, and the BJP would have hoped to romp home by flaring up communal sentiments over this issue.
But the BJP losing ground is not necessarily indicative of a comeback by the Congress and other Opposition parties. Despite all the factors going for them in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress hasn’t yet declared a chief ministerial face in either state. The Congress will have to shore up its organisation, strike strategic alliances in states and do much more to benefit from this ebbing of the saffron wave.