Why Narendra Modi no longer feels invincible
Eavesdrop into a typical chat amongst the capital’s literati or glitterati, and after initial pleasantries are exchanged, conversation steers to the vital topic of how good or bad has the Modi era been in terms of personal economic progress. When answers converge on a consensus of “average” to “not so great”, the next question is “who then? Rahul?”.
The retort is invariably on expected lines of an “oh no!”. So we are back to extolling the virtues of Modi's personal integrity and how far he can stretch TINA perhaps till 2019’s Lok Sabha elections, and at worst, come back with a slimmer majority. At least that’s how it seemed till the pyrrhic Gujarat victory.
Shortfall
Being older and wiser, one has watched enough elections to sift campaign-rhetoric from reality, to decipher political brand marketing from deliverables, and interpret manifestos from what’s do-able. As we herald 2018, the country enters into serious election mode. Clearly, Modi is not invincible going into 2018 Assembly polls or 2019 Lok Sabha elections as was seen in Delhi and Bihar, or the Gujarat cliffhanger.
BJP’s worst performance in Gujarat since 1995 versus Congresses best show in three decades exposes the vulnerability of overplaying an ace, and overexposing Modi the mascot to every state election, where the PM per force has to serially bear the burden of the local chief ministers incumbency.
Conversely, the overdone pessimism on Rahul’s inability to take on a formidable organisational machinery helmed by the most popular leader of the times could be BJP’s strategic error in underestimating an emerging challenger-in chief as he steadily gains news time and news-inches in mainstream media.
So can Rahul seize the moment for his party as also gain acceptance over a potential coalition rival like, for example, Mamta Bannerjee? Perhaps it’s premature to conjecture. But should Lok Sabha Elections be preponed, it leaves little time to coalesce. And how far can Modi stretch electoral charisma despite a perceived shortfall in promises?
The acquittal of all the accused in the 2G scam is an epic Congress moment, one of triumph, reprieve and redemption, that brings the ball back to its court, even if it is for the interim period during which the GOI goes in appeal to the High Court hoping for a reversal of the special CBI courts verdict. The acquittal swipes out of Modi’s rhetoric his most powerful electoral anti-graft plank of the GOP loot which comprises 70 per cent of the content on which BJP’s campaign strike is built upon.
Comparison
The three other trump poll-cards steadily slipping out of BJP’s hands like quicksand as disenchantment grows and the failure to create the two crore jobs promised; agrarian angst due to inadequate remuneration through MSP which Rahul now champions; and youth discontent as seen with ABVP, the RSS affiliated students wing finding it difficult to expand its support base in varsities.
Disillusionment could make the voter turn more forgiving of Congresses lapses, compelling a comparison to Manmohan Singh’s delivery averaging 7 per cent economic growth over his 10 year dominance. Besides BJP is unlikely to perform at its optimum in the anti-incumbency ridden bipolar states of Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh, as Congress resurrects with Rahul as a reasonably qualified challenger to Modi with his newfound aggression. Because in the bid for competitive "electoral Hindutva", the brand of Rahul’s secular Hindutva could be more appealing to moderates and the youth who resent a nanny state that censors a libertarian outlook and milks BJP of its ideological propriety.
Paradox
Secondly, with a morally chastised Congress for now, Modi’s electoral pitch on corruption and Vanshwaad over Vikaswaad with little economic progress to showcase could be electorally counterproductive.
Because Gujarat win masks seedings of deep national discontent which Modi as an astute commander would know better than his critics and necessitates a break from being a 24x7 chief-campaigner to becoming a 24x7 PM rooted in the capital to complete his half-finished revolution and prioritise economic revival.
The Modi paradox is that despite sub-optimal growth, his popularity ratings keep soaring, as did Vajpayee’s, when GDP growth languished at 5.8 per cent GDP with weak job creation, and only picked up in the final year of his governance.
Time is short, and "temporary hardships" must now give way to quantifiable gains for voters, instead of leaving it for fighting a defensive campaign in 2019. Because BJP deviated into emotional issues for the Gujarat elections instead of addressing voter-centric concerns, for example, the 64 per cent of the population who are the jobless youth unable to find employment in the organised or unorganised sector.
Just as the fault lines of Congress misgovernance paved the way for the rise of Modi, BJP’s under-governance could well return that favour to Congress by ceding vantage for the resurgence of another opportunistic coalition.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)