Governor’s rule in J&K: How Centre should make amends in Kashmir
For more than quarter of a century, the state of Jammu and Kashmir has been on edge. This year, the situation is no different. While the BJP’s sudden withdrawal from the coalition government may have taken many by surprise, the writing of its demise had long been etched on the wall.
It would be fair to say that security forces, the J&K police in particular, has lost considerable ground to militants in the last two years. The state of affairs is so dire that instead of protecting civilians, the job of the police personnel has been relegated to holding on to their weapons and keeping themselves alive. Incidents of rifle snatching have gone up in recent months and scores of men in uniform have paid the price of trying to foil such attempts.
Although Governor’s Rule may give our security forces a proverbial "free hand" in flushing out terrorists, the ensuing political vacuum, along with a non-existent policy, may pull the state back to square one.
Before BJP supporters celebrate the party’s decision to pull out of an alliance with the PDP in J&K, it must be put on record that the party’s general secretary Ram Madhav, who, on June 19, blamed rising radicalisation and terrorism in Kashmir as one of the reasons for ending the alliance, had only last year claimed militancy was on a decline in the Valley.
How did this sudden realisation come about now?
The answer to snapping ties with an ideologically opposite alliance partner may lie in the growing disenchantment of its core voter base in Jammu. Besides, playing hardball in Kashmir is likely to further strengthen our Prime Minister’s rumoured 56-inch chest and boost his prospects in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Dark clouds surround Kashmir
The undoing of the BJP-PDP alliance, also dubbed as 'north and south pole' for their divergent views on key issues, is likely to cast a shadow on the political future of the Valley. While the BJP still has some time left to woo its core voter base in Jammu, it is the PDP which may find it difficult to impress its core constituency in South Kashmir. Despite its healing touch policy – under which it quashed FIRs against stone pelters and talked the Centre into announcing a Ramzan ceasefire – the party may be skewered for just tying up with the BJP. Moreover, Governor’s Rule, in all likelihood, would be extended for an indefinite period. If the state machinery was not able to hold by-elections in Anantnag for over two years, then no administration in its present state would dare to go for polls, at least for the next one year.
Maintaining peace at LoC
With Mehbooba Mufti gone, Pakistan has lost a friendly ear in the government of Kashmir. Rawalpindi will make every effort to pulverise the Line of Control (LoC) in the Jammu region. A long-term solution to the problems of border residents has to be found. Sporadic shelling along the LoC has displaced over 1 lakh people in the last couple of months.
Not to mention, scores of jawans who are killed day in and day out in unprovoked firing from across the border.
Clearly, a 'surgical strike' hasn’t helped much in this regard.
No, this won't be easy
Even as the majority of us were a little taken aback by this alliance break-up, recent inputs by security agencies warning of a major terror strike during the upcoming Amarnath Yatra gave some inkling of an imminent decisive move by the Centre. Last year, seven pilgrims, including six women, were killed after a bus bearing a Gujarat registration number was ambushed by terrorists near Anantnag.
The smooth conduct of the annual pilgrimage would feature at the top of the central government’s to-do list in Kashmir now.
Though the opening of a 4-lane highway may help security forces in steering pilgrims away from South Kashmir’s congested towns which have become a hotbed of radicalism, providing security cover to each and every vehicle will remain a challenge.
The way forward
While the unrest in Kashmir, which has become an annual fixture in the summers, hardly affects apple growers, it is the tourism industry that bears the brunt all the time.
On a recent trip to Pahalgam, a roadside salesman who was trying to sell a waistcoat said that I could pay him anything I wanted - the man said he hadn’t made a penny for days on end. The BJP-led Centre may do well by bringing some relief to people who are dependent on tourism.
A majority of them do see their future with India.
A complete overhaul of the current policy which rewards separatists by offering plum jobs to their kin in the state government has to be done away with as early as possible. Kashmiris have waited for nearly three decades for an elusive "normalcy" to return. The government should take it upon itself to empower those people who want to live under the Constitution.
We've seen the army reaching out to locals under the Sadbhavana Mission. More such outreach programs are needed to give voice to those who get silenced by the radical fringe. A long-term Governor’s Rule is very likely. The BJP should take this as an opportunity and shun the status quo which has always resulted in dire consequences for those who have favoured India.
India’s Kashmir policy has been a blunder of epic proportions.
No government has shown the desire to resolve, much less acknowledge it. Solving this mess may take decades but it is important that we make a start. Quick fixes or crisis management will hardly help anyone, let alone the Indian state.
What the Centre really needs is a vision and action plan to take this forward. We have had enough of interlocutor-run talks which invariably lead to dead ends. It is time we get serious about Kashmir.