New Delhi needs to pay more attention to J&K
The world is changing, as, indeed, it always does. Power is shifting eastwards towards China and India, and being diffused downwards to non-state actors - NGOs and terrorists.
But what we are witnessing these days is something far more dramatic, and scary.
The events in Turkey, the massacre in Nice, Brexit, the verdict against China in the UNCLOS tribunal, are just the latest manifestation that the world is not just changing, but perhaps being turned upside down.
This could well presage the emergence of a different, more difficult world, with jobless growth, a broken global trading system Islamism going rogue across the world.
Worse, it's also about being blindsided, as most certainly people were, with Brexit or the rise of the Islamic State.
In all this, India is, with its usual chaos, an oasis of calm where economic growth still means growth above six per cent.
Where it is politics as usual, but with a dangerous edge of majoritarian grievance. Alarm bells are certainly ringing across the country, but none so loudly as the ones in Jammu & Kashmir.
Glance
A superficial glance would suggest that the events rocking the state are by now routine. After a bout of curfew and repression, things will settle down to the kind of uneasy peace that has prevailed through the past decade and a half.
But the eruption that took place after the killing of Burhan Wani needs to analysed in careful detail.
That there are significant pockets of separatists across the Valley is well known, they have manifested their presence in the markedly lower voter turnout of constituencies in and around Srinagar, Sopore, Baramulla or Anantnag, and in the ability of their leaders to bring the Valley to a halt through strikes.
Despite a sharp reduction, the gun remains a presence in the Valley. Besides the neo-Hizbul Mujahideen with a penchant for self-publicity, there are small groups of Pakistanis who are remote-controlled by the ISI for the occasional foray aimed at disrupting efforts towards normalcy.
Events in 2008, the protest against the land transfer to the Amarnath Yatra shrine board, and in 2010, triggered by the Machil fake killing of three innocents by Army personnel, led to a popular upsurge where protestors used the dangerous tactic of pelting the security forces with stones.
Eventually, more than 150 persons were killed in the police firings that were used to control the protestors.
Protest
In both instances, there appeared to be reasonable grounds for civil protest, which were subsequently manipulated by militants like Masarat Alam to become violent. In the latest instance, the death of a militant has triggered the protest.
Wani, of course, lived by the sword and not surprisingly, died by it. There are all kinds of dark hints to suggest that he was extra-judicially executed.
But Kashmir is a place where rumours flourish, not in the least because of the ham-handed manner of the government in trying to control the narrative.
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| A CRPF constable trained to fight Maoists armed with AK-47s, cannot switch personalities when dealing with a civil protestor throwing stones at him in J&K. (AP) |
The danger that we see is not so much from Wani and his associates, but the mood that has persuaded thousands of protestors to brave the bullets and pellet guns of the security forces.
In an era where Islamist radicalism has mutated so sharply in states like Iraq and Syria, you cannot but be too careful. That is the reason why there is need for New Delhi to pay more attention to J&K than it has.
There are three elements of the Kashmir problem - one is the need for a discussion with Pakistan to resolve the outstanding dispute, and second is the importance of New Delhi to address the sense of grievance in the Valley. In both areas little or nothing is happening in the NDA-II watch.
Forces
Third, the security forces have done all they can to bring armed militancy to heel in the state. But, unfortunately, despite the experience of 2008 and 2010, the governments in New Delhi and Srinagar have not been able to come up with a professional police force which is equipped and trained to deal with crowds.
A CRPF constable trained to fight Maoists armed with AK-47s, cannot switch personalities when dealing with a civil protestor throwing stones at him in J&K.
Each of these elements is linked to the other. Tough, but non-lethal policing can enable an environment in which New Delhi can make a deal with Islamabad and Srinagar to bring true normalcy to the state.
The difficultly lies in synchronising the three, we often find that the Pakistan part moves ahead, and Srinagar gets forgotten, or, some event like Wani's shooting, triggers an uprising which undermines the first two elements.
A glance at those injured by pellets would show that most were born after 2000, with little or no memory of the dark days of the state in the 1990s.
And like all teens, they never really think through consequences. However, they do create them. And that's why we need to move with some urgency in the state.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)