How Congress risks being a loser in Karnataka
Does the Congress party realise how much damage HD Kumaraswamy's statement: "I am at the mercy of the Congress'', does to its image and prospects in 2019? If it does not, it needs to wake up and smell the Kodagu coffee.
Quick.
It has been six days since Kumaraswamy and his deputy G Parameshwara were sworn in by governor Vajubhai Vala in the forecourt of the Vidhana Soudha. The star-studded Opposition line-up that trooped into Bangalore on the occasion, served to paper over the not-so comfortable relationship between the Congress and the Janata Dal Secular (JDS). Understandable, given the number of Congressmen who were once students in the Janata Dal school of politics and jumped ship. Add to that the bitter battle the two parties fought in the Karnataka elections.
But now that the euphoria over how Bangalore 2018 could serve as the launching pad for India 2019 has worn off, the realpolitik at play between the Congress and the JDS has come into focus. Intense wrangling is on between the two parties, forced to come together thanks to the fractured verdict, for plum portfolios. The ministries that are in high demand include finance, home, PWD, energy and irrigation. The Congress reportedly wants the five biggies for itself, leaving Kumaraswamy fuming. He has not lost time in pointing out that the speaker's post has already gone to the Congress camp.
The JDS is adamant that the CM hold the finance portfolio. There is a reason for it. The JDS that has always prided in its branding as a farmers' party wants to announce the loan waiver for the agrarian class and wants to ensure it gets to control the flow of funds. Holding the keys to the state exchequer would also ensure the Congress does not share the credit for the decision.
Kumaraswamy would have thought with 16 ministers from Siddaramaiah Cabinet biting the dust, there will be fewer heavyweight claimants for berths. He was mistaken as the Congress has displayed a Big Brother attitude forcing Kumaraswamy to sit for long sessions to arrive at a compromise — first with Karnataka Congress leaders, then with Congress leaders in Delhi and finally wait for Rahul Gandhi to return from the US to put his stamp of approval.
This is deeply ironical given how Siddaramaiah during the election campaign shot barbs at the BJP for getting "north Indian imports" Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath to ask for votes. The same Congress is making a Karnataka regional party look at New Delhi at every step. Why should Gandhi decide who will be Karnataka's animal husbandry or industries minister? For all its tall talk about Kannadiga identity and pride, the Congress has failed to walk the talk.
The Congress needs to realise that while underlining the 78 to 37 equation vis-a-vis the JDS in the Assembly may massage its ego, it will do little to endear it to potential alliance partners in other states. In the Karnataka context, the party also needs to realise that the verdict was decisively anti-Congress. While the mandate was admittedly neither in favour of the BJP or the JDS, it sent the message that the people of
Karnataka wanted two of the three parties to cobble together a working relationship and provide decent governance. Instead, what Karnataka is witnessing is that its fractured verdict has led to fractured governance.
This is rank bad PR for the Congress. Parameshwara, its PCC chief, already did enough damage by saying support has not been given to Kumaraswamy for five years, hinting at the possibility of the CM meeting his father HD Deve Gowda's fate. What ambitious Congress leaders do not realise is that a messy innings, hankering for positions of power in Vidhana Soudha, would only be handing over Bengaluru on a platter to the BJP in a snap poll or in 2019.
The JDS has little to lose. In fact, the canny politician that he is, Kumaraswamy is already playing the underdog. "I have to take permission from Congress leaders. Without their permission, I can't do anything. They have given me support," he said.
No one gives this coalition government time beyond one year. But what is more important is what it does in the next 12 months. If much of that time is going to be spent trying to create hurdles, Rahul Gandhi can wish 2019 goodbye.
Karnataka can make or break the Congress. It is its best chance to show it can be a good coalition partner and not a party that still thinks it is entitled only to rule.