India Today-Axis My India exit poll: It's Disadvantage Modi in South India
Southern India has spelt it out — the Modi factor is doomed in the South and it is Congress all the way in three of the five states and two union territories. While the BJP retains its saffron roots in Karnataka, Jagan’s charm is certainly whirring in Andhra Pradesh. This too could turn a grim scenario into a happier one for the BJP.
According to India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the numbers show disadvantage Modi in the south.
In Andhra, the exit polls are predicting 18 to 20 seats of the 25 Lok Sabha constituencies for the YSRCP. The state voted for both Assembly and Parliamentary seats on April 11, 2019. The incumbent TDP, headed by N Chandrababu Naidu, could win a measly four to six Lok Sabha seats with maybe one seat to other parties/independents. With the power equation clearly tilted in Jagan’s favour in the state, he is likely to emerge as a powerful ally vis-a-vis the Centre, whoever he decides to support. Considering Jagan’s uncomfortable past with the Congress, this advantage is not likely to be bestowed on the grand old party.
In Tamil Nadu, voters have stayed true to the trend of the past when one alliance sweeps the polls. The Congress-DMK combine is projected to win a whopping 34 to all 38 of the Lok Sabha seats. For the BJP-led alliance of the saffron party, AIADMK, PMK, DMDK and Puthiya Tamilagam, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts four seats of 38 at max. Tamil Nadu has been a thorn in the BJP’s flesh, with the state wearing an anti-Modi sentiment on its sleeve. Currently, the AIADMK-combine reportedly stands at losing 26% of vote share, according to the exit poll.
The Rahul-factor seems to have overridden the religious sentiment of the Sabarimala issue in Kerala. The Congress-led UDF alliance is projected to sweep 15 to 16 of the 20 Parliamentary seats in the state with the Left and Democratic Front (LDF) likely to bag three to five seats. Rahul Gandhi had contested from Wayanad constituency in the state. The BJP has a chance to win only one seat, according to the exit polls. Interestingly, even that one seat is not the Pathanamthitta constituency in which Sabarimala falls — but the Thiruvananthapuram constituency that is held by MP Shashi Tharoor as of now.
Telangana is likely to see a repeat performance of the 2018 Assembly polls, with K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) sweeping 10 to 12 of the 17 Parliamentary seats, according to exit polls. The BJP might manage to win one to three seats, as is the case with Congress. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is projected to win one seat.
Karnataka has stayed firm with its loyalty to the saffron party — the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts 21 to 25 of the 28 seats in the BJP’s pocket. Congress is likely to win three to six seats and one seat has been predicted for the other parties/independents.
Union Territories — Pondicherry and Lakshadweep — have voted for the Congress, according to the exit polls.
The numbers for the BJP are looking south in the southern part of the country.
To quote Rajdeep Sardesai, Consulting Editor, India Today group, from the exit polls telecast, “If south India were a separate country, we are looking at Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister.”