What India stands to lose in US pulling out Iran nuclear deal
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, has been called off by US President Donald Trump unilaterally. This has opened a Pandora's Box as the nuclear deal which put checks on the Iranian nuclear programme no longer exits. Iran is free again to proliferate and develop nuclear weapons. The landmark nuclear deal was serving its purposes well since its inception.
Not only did it bring US and Iran a bit closer but also changed the equations between Iran and US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel in West Asia. Both these countries have been sworn enemies of the Iranian state.
After the deal in 2015, both the Israelis and Saudis wanted US to exit from the deal as it was preventing them from taking direct action against Iran, which they accused of harming their interests in countries like Syria and Yemen.
Iran has found itself in opposition against Saudis and Israelis in most regional conflicts due to their traditional ideological rivalries. While the US used to support its allies - which allied with groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and states like Syria and powers like Russia - openly against Iran, of late it was observed that the US had become more accommodative of Iranian positions in these regional conflicts.
The deal riled the Saudis and Israelis, who wanted a firm stand and proactive support from the US against Iran. This was not possible for America under the terms of the deal.
Soon after the deal fell apart, Iran and Israel came face-to-face with each other with both parties targeting each other's military positions. While Iranian rockets targeted Israeli positions in the Golan Heights, Israel reciprocated by conducting extensive strikes against Iranian targets across Syria. The situation has escalated to dangerous levels. Israel has been miffed since long due to a large Iranian presence on the Syrian territory from where it can aim for targets in Israel easily.
Iran has slammed the US decision to walk away from the deal. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in his speech said, "US is a country that has never adhered to its commitments." He warned US that with the deal off now, Iran could restart enriching uranium "without any limitations" within few weeks.
For now, Iran's official position is to stay in the nuclear deal as it is waiting to assess the positions taken by the five countries remaining in the deal namely, Russia, China, France, Germany and UK.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has warned Iran against restarting its nuclear programme. The situation in West Asia is so fragile that one wrong decision by Iran or any of the US allies in the region can lead to a full-scale war.
The shadow war which Iran and Israel have been fighting in Syria over the years has now burst out into the open. The jolt to the deal, meanwhile, is a win for the extremists and the hardliners across all sides of the divide, while the losers have been the liberals who voted for the deal and wanted it to remain intact.
With all this happening, India's position on this issue would be interesting to watch out for. Though, New Delhi is not a party to the Iran nuclear deal, the recent events and the events which would be unfolding soon, would have larger implications for India.
In the last few years, India has invested heavily in projects like Chabahar Port and INSTC (International North-South Trade Corridor) which pass through Iranian territory. If the situation worsens and the conflict escalates between Iran and US or any of its allies, the future of these projects would be jeopardised.
Second, with Iran and US on opposing sides, India would not want to be in a situation where it has to choose between one of the two. Till now, India had successfully balanced its relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel as well as the US. Iran is currently India's third-biggest supplier of oil (after Iraq and Saudi Arabia) and any tussle with Iran will impact the already inflated oil prices.
When asked about India's position on this matter, Raveesh Kumar, spokesperson for the ministry of external affairs, said, "We are assessing the implications which this might have on our interests. At this stage, I can share with you that the government will take all necessary measures which are required to safeguard our interests. We have emphasized that all parties should engage constructively to address and resolve the issues that have arisen out of JCPOA and we have always supported a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy."
Tehran's envoy to New Delhi, Masoud Rezvanian Rahagh, has cleared the Iranian position by saying that if European partners and others stick to promises and commitments under JCPOA then Iran too will fulfil its commitments, and oil trade with India will not be affected.
The next couple of weeks will be crucial for all parties and stakeholders of the deal. India on its part would be looking forward to engage in "deft diplomacy" so that it does not come in the line of fire and its own interests in the region are not harmed.