Exit poll: 5 reasons for BJP to cheer and 5 to worry
The India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll has thrown up some interesting insights into what the voters in Gujarat are thinking.
Cheer up
1) Congress's tribal stronghold smashed
The tribal pockets of Gujarat were for long considered Congress bastions. Speaking at the India Today Conclave in 2013, then chief minister Narendra Modi passionately detailed the development work that had been done in the tribal areas. Breaking the Congress’s stranglehold over the tribal voters of Gujarat has for long been a pet project of the Narendra Modi and Amit Shah duo.
The 2017 elections seems to have finally seen the realisation of that long-cherished dream. Axis My India projects the BJP will pick up 48 per cent of the tribal votes in Gujarat while the Congress is expected to bag 42 per cent.
This is the first time that the BJP is ahead of the Congress among the tribals of the state. Out of the 28 tribal-dominated seats of Gujarat, the BJP is leading in 17, the Congress in 11.
One of the main reasons the BJP has been able to withstand losses in Saurashtra and Kutch is its success in wooing the tribals of Gujarat.
2) Modi still rules hearts in urban hubs
The GST agitation may have given heebie-jeebies to the BJP leadership, but in the end the party was able to get its core trader vote-bank to pipe down.
The traders of Gujarat were seething about the way the GST was thrust down their throats, but for them the Congress still remains the bigger enemy.
The fear of "Latif Raj", riots, curfew and the return of lawlessness, if the Congress came back to power was enough to keep traders on the side of the BJP in these polls.
Out of the 55 urban seats of Gujarat, the BJP is projected to bag a whopping 42. The Congress, on the other hand, could make inroads into only 13 of them.
The BJP leads in 13 out of the 16 seats in Ahmedabad, eight out of the nine seats in Surat and on all the five seats in the urban pockets of Vadodra.
The pride associated with having a Gujarati as prime minister was one of the major triggers for voters in the cities. The "Gujju bhai" simply did not want to let down a fellow "Gujju".
3) Patidar fire contained
Anger among the Patidars sank the BJP in the rural panchayat elections in Gujarat in 2015. One of the key campaign themes was whether Patidar fire would destroy the BJP in 2017. Patidars did break away from the BJP in Saurashtra and north Gujarat.
On the 54 seats of Saurashtra and Kachch, around 56 per cent of the Leva Patels and 60 per cent of the Kadva Patels voted for the Congress. The BJP could get only 36 per cent of the Leva Patel vote and 33 per cent of the Kadva Patel on these seats.
On the 32 seats of north Gujarat as well, the Congress has a 6 per cent lead over the BJP among the Patels.
However, the BJP makes up for this loss in south and central Gujarat and in Ahmedabad city. On the 40 seats of central Gujarat, around 62 per cent of the Leva Patels and 58 per cent of the Kadva Patels voted for the BJP. Here the Congress got only 27 per cent of the Leva vote and 31 per cent of the Kadva Patel vote. The scenario is the same in the 35 seats of south Gujarat as well, where the BJP enjoys a 25 per cent-plus lead over the Congress among the Patels.
4) More educated a voter, more he tilts towards the BJP
The one thing BJP backers seem to be excited about is the positive co-rrelation between education and propensity to vote for the BJP. The Axis-My-India exit poll shows the more educated a voter, the more likely he is to vote for the BJP and the more uneducated a voter, the more likely he is to vote for the Congress.
Around 52 per cent of the post-graduates and 50 per cent of the state’s graduates indicated to Axis that they voted for the BJP. The Congress picked up only 36 per cent of the post-graduate vote and 39 per cent of the graduate vote.
The Congress’s appeal was highest among the uneducated voters of the state. Some 47 per cent of the uneducated voters of the state indicated a preference for the Congress.
Uneducated voters are the only category of voters where the Congress has a 5 per cent lead over the BJP.
In other education categories, the BJP enjoys between 5 per cent and 16 per cent advantage.
5) Women voters embrace BJP
One of the less-noticed, but important findings of the Axis-My-India exit poll is that women voters in the state have voted for the BJP in much bigger numbers than the menfolk.
Schemes like the Ujjwala Yojana, which provides free LPG gas connections to women of BPL households, and the distribution of free LED bulbs are schemes that benefited the poor and helped build support for the BJP.
The law and order situation has been one of the strong suits of the BJP government. Gujarat is generally considered a safe state for women and women can be seen on the streets till late into the night. This sense of security also seems to have pushed women to vote for the BJP in a big way.
The BJP bagged 49 per cent of the female vote in Gujarat in comparison with 46 per cent of the male vote. In a closely fought election, this 3 per cent extra vote from the women voters gave a definite advantage to the BJP.
It's interesting though that voters did not favourably recall any of the state government’s welfare schemes.
Ringing the alarm bells
1) BJP's Gujarat biggies on a sticky wicket
Axis-My-India pollsters went to all the constituencies - 182 - in Gujarat. The surveyors spoke to more than 200 respondents on each of these seats.
A seat-wise analysis throws up an alarming picture for some of the well-known faces of the BJP in Gujarat. Remember, this is not a projection for these seats, but only an indicator of the index of popularity of the leaders who fought on the seat. Deputy chief minister Nitin Patel is shown as trailing Congress’s Jivabhai Patel in the popularity index. Chief minister Vijay Rupani is neck-and-neck with Congress heavyweight Indranil Rajyaguru on Rajkot West. BJP state president Jitu Jitu Vaghani trails Dilipsinh Gohil of the Congress on the Bhavnagar West seat. Local BJP stalwart Saurabh Patel locked in a tricky fight against DM Patel of the Congress in Botad. If these BJP heavyweights fall, then it could rob the party of some of the sheen even if it manages to retain Gujarat.
2) No longer a youth magnet
One of the biggest worries for the BJP is the party’s loss of popularity among the youth voters of Gujarat. During the recent Assembly elections in other states as well as the 2014 General Elections, the BJP was seen as a magnet for the young, aspirational voters of the country. But the non-fulfilment of these aspirations could turn into a minefield for the BJP if the trend picked up in Gujarat spreads to other states.
Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani working in tandem with Rahul Gandhi seem to have pulled a chunk of the youth voters away from the BJP.
The only age category where the BJP is ahead of the Congress is among the 18-25 voters. Around 45 per cent of the youth indicated that they voted for the Congress versus 44 per cent who backed the BJP.
Even among the students of Gujarat, the Congress has been able to match the popularity of the BJP. Both parties secured 43 per cent of the student vote. In earlier elections, the BJP used to have a substantial lead over the Congress among the youth voters.
The BJP’s popularity is highest among the 60-plus population of the state who recall the "bad old days" under the Congress.
3) Hardik Patel is a future threat
His opponents have been writing the political obituary of Hardik Patel for many months now. First he was booked for sedition, thrown out of Gujarat and sent to jail. During the peak of the campaign, multiple "sex CDs" emerged. Slurs were flung Hardik’s way. The calculation was that Hardik would be "exposed" and his support base would come apart. But after addressing one mega rally after another, Hardik Patel has emerged as the single biggest threat to the BJP in Gujarat.
Out of the four Kadva Patel-dominated seats in the state, the Congress is projected to bag three, the BJP only one. Out of the 12 Leva Patel-dominated seats of Gujarat, the Congress leads in eight, the BJP on only 4. The BJP was able to ward off the threat posed by Hardik in this election on the back of a strong counter mobilisation of the non-Patidar communities. But not all the youth at Hardik rallies are Patidars. To some extent, he has become a symbol of youth unrest. Unless the new government can fix the underlying issues fuelling disenchantment among the youth, Hardik Patel could emerge as a real threat in time for the next polls.
Hardik has already indicated to India Today that he’s willing to join the Congress in case a serious offer is made to him. If the Congress can quell internal dissent and make the Patidar "chieftain" the party’s face for the next polls, then Hardik could potentially have the appeal and the party machinery on the ground to give the BJP a real fight in 2022. But five years is a very long time in Indian politics and a lot will depend on how Hardik handles himself over the next few years.
4) The Gujarat model doesn't cover the entire state
Anti-incumbency in Gujarat was highest among voters in Saurashtra and Kutch and north Gujarat.
The inability of the BJP to provide drinking water to citizens in Saurashtra seems to have hurt the BJP’s chances. While the relatively industrialised areas of south and central Gujarat have backed the BJP strongly, voters did not share a similar enthusiasm among the less developed parts of the state.
The Congress has a seven-seat lead over the BJP on the 54 seats of Saurashtra and Kutch and a four-seat lead over the BJP in the 32 seats of north Gujarat.
If the BJP gets elected to power once again, then working on development needs of Saurashtra, Kutch and north Gujarat has to be a priority area for the new government.
5) Rural distress is a real problem
If the rural seats of Gujarat are considered in isolation, the BJP would have been badly bruised in this election. Out of the 127 rural seats of Gujarat the BJP leads in 64, the Congress comes on top in 62 seats.
There is only a two-seat gap between the BJP and the Congress. Other data points in the Axis-My-India survey bear a similar trend. The BJP and Congress are locked at 45 per cent popularity among the farmers of Gujarat. In most other occupation categories, the BJP enjoys a healthy lead over the Congress.